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Prediction markets for DIS

Will a room-temperature, atmospheric pressure superconductor be discovered before 2030?

Apr 20, 1:54 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10%chance

8931904740

OptionVotes

YES

NO

29074

10077

Health issues from 100% Huel diet discovered by 2035?

Sep 21, 9:08 PMDec 28, 11:59 PM

73.09%chance

10537099

OptionVotes

NO

YES

16481

6067

Will an AI related disaster kill a million people or cause $1T of damage before 2070?

Sep 2, 8:54 AMSep 9, 10:59 PM

44%chance

568669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1047

854

Will an LLM Agent discover a single significant contribution (+100 elo gain ) over the leading chess engine before 2028?

Nov 4, 5:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.64%chance

98202

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17028

5873

Which party will win the 2028 U.S. House election in Colorado's 8th District?

Nov 6, 1:20 AMNov 8, 12:00 PM

26270

OptionProbability

Democratic Party

Republican Party

Other

73

27

0

Which party will win the 2028 U.S. House election in Ohio's 1st District?

Nov 6, 3:13 AMNov 8, 12:00 PM

25002

OptionProbability

Democratic Party

Republican Party

Other

68

32

0

Which party will win the 2028 U.S. House election in Arizona's 6th District?

Nov 6, 1:03 AMNov 8, 12:00 PM

23512

OptionProbability

Democratic Party

Republican Party

Other

61

39

0

When will Guinea Worm Disease be eradicated?

Jan 4, 12:17 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

39.65%chance

82034

OptionProbability

YES

NO

6595

4032

Federal government fellowship approximating discontinued PMF program opens applications by EOY2030?

Apr 20, 6:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.62%chance

9702

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10538

9489

Will "From SLT to AIT: NN generalisation out-of-dis..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 8, 4:14 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

So wat is the point for dis ?

Dec 8, 4:17 AM

00

If someone exposes much of themselves to ChatGPT, is that more likely to (dis)empower them?

Oct 29, 12:01 AM

60

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