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Prediction markets for DIS

Will a room-temperature, atmospheric pressure superconductor be discovered before 2030?

Apr 20, 1:54 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6.72%chance

8781874800

OptionVotes

YES

NO

40383

9070

Who will be the next person to win an election to US House District 11, other than Nancy Pelosi?

Jun 4, 5:21 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

123741585

OptionProbability

Scott Wiener

Saikat Chakrabarti

Connie Chan

Christine Pelosi

London Breed

Other

Bruce Lou

Jane Kim

Nancy Pelosi will live forever and always win

60

22

14

1

1

1

0

0

0

Health issues from 100% Huel diet discovered by 2035?

Sep 21, 9:08 PMDec 28, 11:59 PM

69.61%chance

10535467

OptionVotes

NO

YES

15133

6608

Will an AI related disaster kill a million people or cause $1T of damage before 2070?

Sep 2, 8:54 AMSep 9, 10:59 PM

44%chance

568669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1047

854

Virginia redistricting: Will the Charlottesville district be blue?

Dec 21, 12:31 AMNov 4, 12:19 AM

65.17%chance

97445

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10931

7955

Will GiveWell fund Post-discharge malaria chemoprevention (PMC) for children with severe anemia by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 6:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.08%chance

127430

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7704

2333

When will Guinea Worm Disease be eradicated?

Jan 4, 12:17 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

40.4%chance

61933

OptionProbability

YES

NO

6496

4097

Will OpenAI make significant changes OR discontinue Sora due to "long-term user satisfaction," two years after launch?

Oct 1, 6:00 PMSep 30, 5:51 PM

111815

OptionProbability

OpenAI makes significant changes to Sora

OpenAI discontinues Sora

51

36

Federal government fellowship approximating discontinued PMF program opens applications by EOY2030?

Apr 20, 6:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.62%chance

9702

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10538

9489

Will "From SLT to AIT: NN generalisation out-of-dis..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 8, 4:14 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

If someone exposes much of themselves to ChatGPT, is that more likely to (dis)empower them?

Oct 29, 12:01 AM

60

So wat is the point for dis ?

Dec 8, 4:17 AM

00

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