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Prediction markets for DIS

Will a room-temperature, atmospheric pressure superconductor be discovered before 2030?

Apr 20, 1:54 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5.55%chance

8721874267

OptionVotes

YES

NO

47111

8632

Who will be the next person to win an election to US House District 11, other than Nancy Pelosi?

Jun 4, 5:21 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

120673430

OptionProbability

Scott Wiener

Connie Chan

Saikat Chakrabarti

Other

Bruce Lou

Christine Pelosi

Jane Kim

London Breed

Nancy Pelosi will live forever and always win

55

26

15

2

1

1

1

1

0

Health issues from 100% Huel diet discovered by 2035?

Sep 21, 9:08 PMDec 28, 11:59 PM

60.59%chance

10232648

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12399

8065

Will an AI related disaster kill a million people or cause $1T of damage before 2070?

Sep 2, 8:54 AMSep 9, 10:59 PM

44%chance

568669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1047

854

Virginia redistricting: Will the Charlottesville district be blue?

Dec 21, 12:31 AMNov 4, 12:19 AM

73.07%chance

96024

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10393

9851

When will Guinea Worm Disease be eradicated?

Jan 4, 12:17 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

40.4%chance

61933

OptionProbability

YES

NO

6496

4097

Will OpenAI make significant changes OR discontinue Sora due to "long-term user satisfaction," two years after launch?

Oct 1, 6:00 PMSep 30, 5:51 PM

8735

OptionProbability

OpenAI makes significant changes to Sora

OpenAI discontinues Sora

51

44

Federal government fellowship approximating discontinued PMF program opens applications by EOY2030?

Apr 20, 6:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.62%chance

9702

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10538

9489

How many of 10 distinct objects will Sora depict, given a 100% visual prompt that doesn't include any of the objects?

Feb 17, 7:52 AMMar 1, 7:59 AM

43.27%chance

12645

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10049

9958

Will "From SLT to AIT: NN generalisation out-of-dis..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 8, 4:14 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

If someone exposes much of themselves to ChatGPT, is that more likely to (dis)empower them?

Oct 29, 12:01 AM

60

So wat is the point for dis ?

Dec 8, 4:17 AM

00

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