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Prediction markets for DIS

Will a room-temperature, atmospheric pressure superconductor be discovered before 2030?

Apr 20, 1:54 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6.73%chance

8801874824

OptionVotes

YES

NO

40327

9074

Who will be the next person to win an election to US House District 11, other than Nancy Pelosi?

Jun 4, 5:21 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

131913713

OptionProbability

Scott Wiener

Saikat Chakrabarti

Connie Chan

Other

Bruce Lou

Christine Pelosi

Jane Kim

Nancy Pelosi will live forever and always win

London Breed

78

15

5

1

0

0

0

0

0

Virginia redistricting: Will the Charlottesville district be blue?

Dec 21, 12:31 AMNov 4, 12:19 AM

69.85%chance

2654460

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10297

9276

Health issues from 100% Huel diet discovered by 2035?

Sep 21, 9:08 PMDec 28, 11:59 PM

69.61%chance

10535467

OptionVotes

NO

YES

15133

6608

Will an AI related disaster kill a million people or cause $1T of damage before 2070?

Sep 2, 8:54 AMSep 9, 10:59 PM

44%chance

568669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1047

854

When will Guinea Worm Disease be eradicated?

Jan 4, 12:17 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

39.64%chance

72033

OptionProbability

YES

NO

6596

4031

Federal government fellowship approximating discontinued PMF program opens applications by EOY2030?

Apr 20, 6:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.62%chance

9702

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10538

9489

Will "From SLT to AIT: NN generalisation out-of-dis..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 8, 4:14 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

When will the Kakeya conjecture be proved or disproved?

Apr 7, 2:36 PMDec 31, 2:33 PM

00

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

Other

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

When will Polymarket disable permissionless pUSD withdrawals?

May 4, 1:36 PMDec 31, 2:02 PM

00

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028 or later

33

33

33

If someone exposes much of themselves to ChatGPT, is that more likely to (dis)empower them?

Oct 29, 12:01 AM

60

So wat is the point for dis ?

Dec 8, 4:17 AM

00

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