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Prediction markets for Discovery

Will NASA confirm the discovery of alien before 2026?

Feb 15, 5:19 PMDec 26, 4:58 AM

1.46%chance

149680

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6487

45

SOAI#3: Open-ended agents make a meaningful scientific discovery end-to-end (hypothesis, expt, iteration, paper).

Oct 9, 11:04 PMOct 10, 11:04 PM

50%chance

364585

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Is there a major headline discovery that still remains hidden in the world's oceans?

Apr 7, 9:09 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

88.78%chance

813413

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2609

1178

Will a human walk on Mars before a Nobel Prize is awarded for a discovery relating to dark matter?

Jun 16, 10:13 PMJan 1, 7:01 AM

67.74%chance

362720

OptionVotes

NO

YES

977

952

Paramount Skydance acquires Warner Brothers Discovery before 10/31/2026

Oct 4, 1:00 AMNov 1, 12:55 AM

13.11%chance

21575

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2575

388

Major archaeological discovery rivaling Göbekli Tepe by 2043?

Apr 21, 8:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.48%chance

221465

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1909

788

Frontier science theorem discovery fully formalized in proof assistant before 2028?

May 23, 6:26 AMDec 31, 9:44 AM

22.82%chance

111221

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1842

547

Will a scientific discovery extend human lifespan by more than 10 years within the next 20 years?

Mar 15, 12:30 AMDec 22, 2:59 AM

35.11%chance

18558

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1044

962

Will AI play a substential role in the discovery of the first room T+P superconductor ?

Mar 6, 8:40 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

63.25%chance

23471

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1160

890

By 2040, will a chamber have been found in or under the Great Sphinx that represents a significant discovery?

Aug 9, 7:28 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

32%chance

20333

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1046

971

Will evolutionary psychology make a clinically useful discovery by 2050?

Apr 8, 10:12 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

35.28%chance

12308

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1119

924

Will Scott Aaronson ever pay out any award for a discovery that dramatically weakens the possibility of scalable quantum computing?

Nov 27, 9:10 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

18.29%chance

11290

OptionVotes

YES

NO

993

983

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