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OptionProbability
Iran launches retaliatory missile/drone strikes on Israel within 72 hours
Iran attacks a US military base in the Middle East within 7 days
Iran closes or attempts to block the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days
Crude oil prices exceed $90/barrel within 7 days
Any Iranian nuclear facilities are confirmed struck
The US Congress invokes or debates the War Powers Resolution within 30 days
>= 10 American soldiers are killed
>= 10 Israeli soldiers are killed
A new Supreme Leader is formally named within 30 days
Iran launch strikes directly targeting Saudi oil infrastructure within 14 days
Operation Epic Fury strikes continue >= 14 consecutive days
Crude oil prices exceed $100/barrel
Mojtaba Khamenei is publicly announced as Supreme Leader within 14 days
Israel launches a full ground invasion into Lebanon
Crude oil prices exceed $110/barrel
Houthis/Yemen officially announce they are joining the war
Iran-linked hackers cause a major disruption (outage >24 hr) to US/Israel
Chinese-mediated ceasefire or de-escalation framework occurs
Any ground raid to seize enriched uranium stockpile
A US Navy vessel is struck or damaged by an Iranian anti-ship missile in the Strait of Hormuz
Houthis launch a confirmed attack on a US Navy vessel
Major European mainland terrorist attack by pro-Iran terrorists
Strike on a nuclear power plant causes a radiation incident
>= 50 American soldiers are killed
Iran assassinates an Israeli/US government leader
Major US mainland terrorist attack by pro-Iran terrorists
A senior IRGC commander or provincial governor publicly defects
>= 50 Israeli soldiers are killed
A nuclear weapon is used offensively
100+ civilian deaths in Israel
Ayatollah Khamenei makes a public address within 48 hours
Houthis successfully strike a commercial vessel in the Red Sea within 7 days
Mojtaba Khamenei is killed by a US/Israel strike within 30 days
QatarEnergy resumes LNG production within 14 days
US ground forces land on Kharg Island by April 15
Strait of Hormuz reopens to commercial tanker traffic by April 30
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OptionProbability
Energy harvesting + sensor ubiquity
Bitcoin + AI
AI + Genetics
AI + Medicine
Social media + AI
Bitcoin + XR
AI + Spatial Computing
AI + Internet
AI + Robotics
AI + Physics
Fintech + AI
AI + Advanced Materials
AI + Bioengineering
Quantum Computing + Materials Science
3D Printing + Materials Science
AI+Blockchain
BCI + Internet
Mobile Technology + Social Media
XR + AI
AI + Prediction Markets
AI + IoT
AI + VR
Nuclear Energy + Transportation
Wearable Technology + Telemedicine
GPS + Real-time Traffic Data
Haptics + BCI
AI + fossil fuels
Vertical farming + Solar
BCI + Remote sensing
Decentralized IP Verification and Education (Blockchain Credentials)
BCI + Dating Apps
Predictive Markets and Constitutional Alignment of AI
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8
5
3
OptionProbability
Proposal: representative security council! Add at least one member with <20k net worth
Proposal: Donate it all to MSF / Doctors without Borders
ACCEPTED: Don't use the bomb before it reaches 10K (minimum)
Donate to Mriya https://manifold.markets/ArtemAvramenko/will-the-mriya-fund-raise-2-million?r=TG9yZWxhaQ
ACCEPTED: Donate 50% to GiveWell, 50% to Internet Archive
Donate 34% to give well, 33 % to internet archive, 33% to mriya
Proposal: add @Stralor to the security council
Proposal: don't use the bomb until it reaches 20k mana kilotons
Proposal: Loan Tumbles 1000 mana to add to the bounty, then add Tumbles to the security council
Proposal: Add @SanghyeonSeo to the security council
Proposal: add @Joshua as a member of the security council
Proposal: Bet it on YES for Michelle Obama winning the 2024 presidential election
Proposal: add @odoacre to the security council
Proposal: Bet YES on the first Yes or No market posted after 1 AM EST on March 9th
Proposal: Vow not to use the bomb on whalebait markets
Proposal: EMERGENCY BACKUP BOMB - donate it all to internet archive in case of pivot backfire
Proposal: Loan it all to @retr0id for 1 month, at 10% monthly interest
Proposal: Donate it all to Givewell (PASSED AWAITING APPROVAL)
Proposal: Bet it all on coinflip markets (51% YES) and see how many times it ~doubles
Proposal: the security council must have at least 3 members to arm the bomb
Drop a 1 kiloton "shot across the bow" spirit bomb directly on the new manifold government https://manifold.markets/bens/will-i-receive-the-mandate-of-the-p
Proposal: Boost Bomb, spend the mana boosting question(s) to be determined
Proposal: Whale Bomb: Use the bomb on a whalebait market
Proposal: a member of the security counsel can be voted off with a supermajority of its members >66%
Proposal: True Love Bomb, spread the mana by making large bets on markets with <3 traders or markets created by new users
Proposal: Create a ticking mechanism with a mana goal and a deadline, such that either: 1) the deadline is reached and the bomb is detonated, or 2) the mana goal is reached and the deadline is extended
Proposal: Give 10% to @geuber_
Proposal: add @AmmonLam to the security council
Proposal: Use it to develop a rival “Coolfold Partner Program,” award it as bounties to promising new/cool market creators
Proposal: Add @Tumbles to the security council
Proposal: Donate it all to Poker Night on Manifund
Proposal: Use the mana to buy tickets for Manifest for spirit bomb contributors who are able to make it
Proposal: Bet it on LK-99 superconductor market (YES or NO to be decided).
add @AbhinavSrinivas to the security council
Proposal: add @KongoLandwalker to the security counsil
Proposal: Cursed Boost Bomb, use it to boost the most cursed/annoying market to impact the feed of every user for days to come
Proposal: Subsidy Bomb, put the mana into one specific market, target to be determined
ACCEPTED: don't use the bomb before it reaches 5K (minimum)
ACCEPTED: require a contribution of at least 1000M for any future member to be considered for the security council
DUPLICATE - NA
ACCEPTED: security council candidates must have 20 YES positions for them to be considered
ACCEPTED: Proposed security council members cannot be considered without reaching 100% YES at some point after having 20 unique YES positions.
ACCEPTED: Proposals need at least 10 more Yes positions than NO positions to be considered (YES positions minus NO positions must be 10 or more)
ACCEPTED: All proposals must have at least 80% to be considered
ACCEPTED: proposals can be cancelled if there are 10 more NO positions than YES positions (they can be resubmitted though)
ACCEPTED: Proposed security council members cannot be considered without reaching 95% YES at some point after having 20 unique YES positions. (amending previous 100%)
ACCEPTED: change approval for resolutions to 95%, and a difference of 20 Y to N for sec council member proposals
Proposal: Poker bomb - use it to fund a massive prize pool for a coolfold poker event
Proposal: Max out a specific Manifund project (TBD)
Proposal: add @stefanie as a member of the security council
Proposal: Distribute among active players in Bronze
Proposal: Poll bomb - give chris enough mana to finish hogwarts/trump polls :)
Proposal: Stochastic Bomb: use it to make as many markets about Jose Luis Ricon and StochasticParrot as possible
Proposal: use the bomb to disrupt manifold politics conditional markets.
Proposal: Use the bomb to create a multiple choice market with 100 answers, and pour the rest into boosting it
Proposal: repeal the ban on using the bomb before it reaches 5K mana
Proposal: add a random number generator to the security council
Proposal: Disarm the bomb until April 2nd 2024
Proposal: Immolation Bomb to protest the pivot
Proposal: Disarmament & Peace, permanently deactivate the bomb
Proposal: Love Bomb, spread the mana from the bomb as subsidy among the top 100 markets on browse
Proposal: block another user's limit order on a specific market, target TBD (ie: set up a new large Limit Order that is slightly below/above theirs)
Proposal: Vow not to use the bomb on any small creators or their markets, without their permission (<1000 traders)
Proposal: Found a Republican PAC to make election predictions on Manifold more accurate
Proposal: Distribute it to all the users that contributed to it evenly
Proposal: the greed ending, split the bomb evenly among members of the security council
Proposal: add @firstuserhere to the security council
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OptionProbability
AI + Internet
AI + Robotics
AI + Biotech
AI + weapons
AI + Computers
AI + road vehicles
AI + Medicine
AI + Brain Computer Interface (BCI)
XR + AI
Bitcoin + AI
Room temp superconductors + fusion
Robotics + space
AI + Hypnodrones
GPS + Semiconductors
Bitcoin + Robotics
Bitcoin + XR
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77
69
30
26
20
19
14
14
13
10
10
7
6
4
1
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1346
902
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1053
680
OptionProbability
US
China
UK
Japan
Germany
South Korea
North Korea
India
Israel
France
79
78
67
66
62
61
56
52
52
45
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1101
908
OptionProbability
Bio-Risk
other
Drones
Paperclipped
"AI gets the nuclear codes"
Disruption of global food supply chain
AI doomer data center airstrike starts WW3 + nuclear winter
AI hacking takes down global communications networks
Chemical attack
Machines boil oceans as heatsink for compute
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3
OptionVotes
NO
YES
122
82
OptionProbability
Completion (Status Quo): Finishes term; no major political victories or failures occur.
Completion + Political Prosecution: Finishes term and a high-profile political opponent is convicted or imprisoned before January 1, 2030.
Completion + Charter Change (Cha-Cha): Finishes term and the Constitution is successfully amended/ratified.
Completion + Popularity Surge: Finishes term and his final net approval rating is above 60%.
Completion + Geopolitical Victory: Finishes term and achieves a formal, diplomatic, or legal victory in the West Philippine Sea.
Completion + Succession Path: Finishes term and a key member of the Marcos-Romualdez bloc is elected to the Vice Presidency or Senate Presidency by June 30, 2028.
Completion + External War/Victory: Finishes term and successfully navigates a short, decisive external conflict, resulting in a clear geopolitical victory by June 2028.
Completion + Internal Stabilization: Finishes term and achieves a definitive peace agreement or complete military defeat of all major internal insurgency groups by June 2028.
Completion + AI Governance Success: Finishes term and the Philippines becomes an internationally recognized leader in AI governance or ethical adoption, significantly attracting foreign investment by June 2028.
Completion + AI Economic Boom: Finishes term and the economic boost from AI integration (as a percentage of GDP growth) demonstrably meets or exceeds the most optimistic projections (e.g., $92 Billion estimate) by the end of his term.
Removal by Impeachment (Corruption): Term ends due to being successfully convicted on grounds of Graft and Corruption.
Removal by Impeachment (Betrayal of Trust): Term ends due to being successfully convicted on grounds of Betrayal of Public Trust.
Removal by People Power / Junta: Term ends due to a successful People Power mobilization or a military coup/junta.
Removal by Supreme Court: Term ends via a Supreme Court ruling (e.g., a successful quo warranto petition) that invalidates his election or eligibility.
Removal by Death, Disability, or Resignation: Term ends due to health reasons or voluntary resignation.
Removal by Secession / Government Collapse: Term is rendered invalid due to the successful secession of a major region (e.g., Mindanao).
Removal by External War/Loss: Term ends early due to a major external conflict (e.g., WPS conflict) that leads to significant political destabilization and his removal.
Removal by Internal War/Chaos: Term ends early due to a major internal civil conflict or renewed, large-scale insurgency.
Removal by AI Disinformation Crisis: Term ends early due to a widespread, uncontained AI-driven disinformation crisis (e.g., deepfake scandals) that completely erodes public trust and leads to institutional failure and early removal.
Removal by AI Job Disruption: Term ends early due to massive, immediate job displacement from rapid AI automation, leading to widespread social unrest, economic collapse, and his removal.
Extension by Con-Ass: 8-Year Term Congress (Con-Ass) amends the Constitution to change the single 6-year term to a single 8-year term.
Extension by Con-Con: Parliamentary Shift Constitutional Convention changes the system to Parliamentary, making the incumbent Prime Minister with a flexible term.
Extension by Federalism Transitional Clause: A new Federal Constitution is passed, with a clause designating the incumbent as the Transitional President for two additional years.
Extension by SC Rules on Term Interruption: The Supreme Court rules that the current term was interrupted by a crisis, legally restarting the 6-year clock.
Extension by Legislative Deferment of Polls: Congress passes a simple law postponing the 2028 election due to logistics or calamity.
Extension by Emergency Declaration: The President declares a severe National Emergency (non-war) and Congress concurs, suspending the election.
Extension by New Statutory Office Creation: Congress creates a powerful new, non-constitutional role (e.g., Chief Development Officer) with a long statutory term for the incumbent.
Extension by Succession Incapacit Legal/political chaos incapacitates all legal successors (VP, etc.), forcing the incumbent to hold over.
Extension by Election Invalidation: A court ruling or technicality voids the 2028 election, forcing the incumbent to remain until a valid re-run.
Extension by Cabinet Appointment: The incumbent resigns, the successor is sworn in, and immediately appoints the former President to a powerful, unelected executive post that maintains command.
Extension by ASI: A new law establishes a Supreme AI Planning Body which legally determines that the current executive is the optimal administrator and mandates their temporary continuation until a successor meets the AI's criteria.
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