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Prediction markets for Distinct Possibility

Will an AI produce encyclopedia-worthy philosophy by 2026?

Jan 25, 12:24 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

14.74%chance

21426846

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4896

1014

Will a fully synthetic, functional multicellular organism be created before January 1st, 2040?

Mar 17, 3:02 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

27.44%chance

839820

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2695

815

Will things be okay by my lights by 2030?

Nov 21, 7:26 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

37.38%chance

234627

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1294

773

Will research into digital sentience / the fundamental nature of consciousness get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 7:12 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

67.69%chance

191382

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1299

799

Will a complex nanoscale self-replicating assembler be developed before 2040?

Mar 16, 11:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

52.64%chance

361361

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1132

819

Will Deltarune have exactly one ending?

Dec 19, 10:54 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

43.53%chance

181231

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1118

1084

Will Manifold support distribution markets beyond numerical ranges by the end of 2025?

Dec 10, 3:58 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

22.88%chance

81149

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1836

545

Will a unified and inclusive state replace the State of Israel and the Palestinian Territories by May 14, 2048?

Jan 2, 4:11 AMMay 14, 10:00 PM

4.82%chance

121141

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1895

886

Will OpenAI release a cross-platform web browser by the end of 2026?

Nov 22, 10:01 AMDec 31, 2:59 PM

70.37%chance

10932

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1541

649

Will Intel spin-off its foundry business by 2026?

Jan 18, 11:43 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

39.71%chance

5330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1232

812

Is Mihawk related to Imu?

Jul 15, 9:58 PMDec 31, 10:55 PM

50%chance

118

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will Hubris ship in a non-Oxide Computer Company product this decade?

Sep 1, 12:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

45.25%chance

15

OptionVotes

YES

NO

75

65

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