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Prediction markets for Distributed Global

Will the Riemann Hypothesis be solved before 2030?

Jun 8, 6:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.84%chance

315050

OptionVotes

NO

YES

160

63

How will global GDP be distributed among the countries in 2050? [add responses]

Mar 16, 3:26 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

164613

OptionProbability

United States

China

India

Indonesia

Brazil

Russia

Mexico

Japan

United Kingdom

France

Canada

Italy

Germany

23

21

17

14

11

6

6

5

5

5

5

5

3

Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.68%chance

133709

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6632

3220

Will Worldcoin hit 100$ and if yes when will it happen ?

Dec 17, 7:14 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

193186

OptionProbability

No never

Yes by 2030

Yes by 2028

Yes by 2025

68

31

23

2

8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job oss [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

77.1%chance

273066

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1838

546

Will humanity exit the semi-anarchic default condition before 2035?

May 27, 2:32 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25.79%chance

161362

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1696

589

When will Worldcoin's monthly payout exceed Brazil's minimum wage?

Sep 30, 9:06 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

61186

OptionProbability

Before 2030

Before 2027

Before 2025

Before 2026

14

8

0

0

Proof of Personhood SDK stock

Apr 8, 8:05 PMApr 9, 6:29 PM

21351

OptionProbability

NO

YES

416

404

Will Apple source memory chips from a Chinese supplier before 2028?

Jun 27, 6:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.15%chance

8174

OptionVotes

NO

YES

146

68

[don't bet yet, finalizing details] Will a Musk Company or Elon do large geoengineering projects for global warming?

Aug 10, 3:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51%chance

852

OptionVotes

NO

YES

132

128

What will be the market share of sodium-ion batteries in EVs by 2030?

Jan 8, 6:59 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

235

OptionProbability

15% to 25%

25% to 50%

5% to 15%

0% to 5%

Over 50%

27

27

18

14

14

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