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Prediction markets for Distribution

Will GiveWell fund Mass distribution of azithromycin to reduce child mortality by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.08%chance

188507

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6378

3288

Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?

Nov 14, 3:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.61%chance

745724

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2141

900

How will global GDP be distributed among the countries in 2050? [add responses]

Mar 16, 3:26 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

164613

OptionProbability

United States

China

India

Indonesia

Brazil

Russia

Mexico

Japan

United Kingdom

France

Canada

Italy

Germany

23

21

17

14

11

6

6

5

5

5

5

5

3

Will the recipients of naming rights money for the FTX Arena receive a demand to give their money back (e.g. to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?

Dec 19, 12:36 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

76%chance

91954

OptionVotes

NO

YES

200

172

Will Screeps be the subject of a lawsuit for distributing malware by the end of 2027?

Jan 24, 10:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.51%chance

31530

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2530

395

What will be the distribution of inter-day returns of the S&P500 for 2026?

Dec 7, 12:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31187

OptionProbability

p(x ≥ -2)

p(x ≥ -1)

p(x ≥ -.50)

p(x ≥ -.250)

p(x ≥ 0)

p(x ≥ .50)

p(x ≥ .250)

p(x ≥ 1.0)

p(x ≥ 2.0)

91

82

79

78

54

21

20

19

8

Zuck changes his mind and is strongly against open distribution of advanced or open source AI/LLMs by mid 2028

Aug 22, 4:35 AMJul 1, 3:59 AM

33.96%chance

191133

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1395

717

Will Manifold add Metaculus style probability-distribution answers before 2033?

Dec 10, 8:16 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

73.63%chance

13657

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1265

856

Overhead electric distribution still primarily built on wood poles in 50 years?

Apr 22, 7:49 PMApr 22, 11:59 PM

56.53%chance

13631

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1140

877

Will Microsoft discontinue Windows in favor of a Windows themed Linux distribution before 2041?

Jan 19, 1:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.13%chance

6395

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1234

949

Will the US government distribute free cryptocurrency to citizens before January 20, 2029?

Feb 20, 7:00 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

15.11%chance

9237

OptionVotes

YES

NO

237

42

Would a simulated distribution of Jose Luis Ricon/Claire Wang offspring predict at least 50% of their kids w/ IQ > 140

Sep 15, 10:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

62%chance

323

OptionVotes

NO

YES

105

78

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