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Prediction markets for Distribution

What will the Party distribution of the next 2 US presidential terms be? (2029-2037) [> 6k Liquidity]

Jul 29, 11:48 AMMay 31, 9:59 PM

148511

OptionProbability

D-R

D-D

R-D

R-R

one or more Third Party terms

Other

Resolves to NO following Trump Reelection

Resolves to NO following Trump Reelection

Resolves to NO following Trump Reelection

Resolves to NO following Trump Reelection

26

25

22

17

3

3

1

1

1

1

Will GiveWell fund Mass distribution of azithromycin to reduce child mortality by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.08%chance

188507

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6378

3288

Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?

Nov 14, 3:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.61%chance

745724

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2141

900

Will Screeps be the subject of a lawsuit for distributing malware by the end of 2027?

Jan 24, 10:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.51%chance

31530

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2530

395

Zuck changes his mind and is strongly against open distribution of advanced or open source AI/LLMs by mid 2028

Aug 22, 4:35 AMJul 1, 3:59 AM

33.96%chance

191133

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1395

717

Will Manifold add Metaculus style probability-distribution answers before 2033?

Dec 10, 8:16 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

73.63%chance

13657

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1265

856

Overhead electric distribution still primarily built on wood poles in 50 years?

Apr 22, 7:49 PMApr 22, 11:59 PM

56.53%chance

13631

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1140

877

Will Microsoft discontinue Windows in favor of a Windows themed Linux distribution before 2041?

Jan 19, 1:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.13%chance

6395

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1234

949

Will the US government distribute free cryptocurrency to citizens before January 20, 2029?

Feb 20, 7:00 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

15.11%chance

9237

OptionVotes

YES

NO

237

42

Will the AT Protocol (bluesky) end up being used as a distributed ledger?

Aug 20, 8:00 AMJun 26, 11:59 AM

30.88%chance

251

OptionVotes

YES

NO

150

67

Would a simulated distribution of Jose Luis Ricon/Claire Wang offspring predict at least 50% of their kids w/ IQ > 140

Sep 15, 10:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

62%chance

323

OptionVotes

NO

YES

105

78

Is Jose Luis Ricon part of "the universal program"/"universal distribution"/minlength sentence to compress the universe?

Sep 18, 7:14 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

64.79%chance

220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

76

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