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Prediction markets for Distribution

Will GiveWell fund Mass distribution of azithromycin to reduce child mortality by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.63%chance

199507

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7378

2976

Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?

Nov 14, 3:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.61%chance

745724

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2141

900

Will Screeps be the subject of a lawsuit for distributing malware by the end of 2027?

Jan 24, 10:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.51%chance

31530

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2530

395

What will be the distribution of inter-day returns of the S&P500 for 2026?

Dec 7, 12:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31262

OptionProbability

p(x ≥ -2)

p(x ≥ -1)

p(x ≥ -.50)

p(x ≥ -.250)

p(x ≥ 0)

p(x ≥ .250)

p(x ≥ .50)

p(x ≥ 1.0)

p(x ≥ 2.0)

91

88

79

78

54

28

21

19

8

Zuck changes his mind and is strongly against open distribution of advanced or open source AI/LLMs by mid 2028

Aug 22, 4:35 AMJul 1, 3:59 AM

33.96%chance

191133

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1395

717

What's the distribution of people across the intersections of Manifold, LessWrong, and AI Safety?

Jun 22, 2:45 PMJul 6, 3:00 PM

111035

OptionProbability

Manifold only

Manifold and LessWrong only

Manifold and AI Safety only

Manifold, LessWrong, and AI Safety

None of these

LessWrong only

AI Safety only

LessWrong and AI Safety only

38

18

9

9

7

6

6

6

Will Manifold add Metaculus style probability-distribution answers before 2033?

Dec 10, 8:16 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

73.63%chance

13657

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1265

856

Overhead electric distribution still primarily built on wood poles in 50 years?

Apr 22, 7:49 PMApr 22, 11:59 PM

56.53%chance

13631

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1140

877

Will Microsoft discontinue Windows in favor of a Windows themed Linux distribution before 2041?

Jan 19, 1:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.13%chance

6395

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1234

949

Daily distribution ETF by end of 2026?

Oct 26, 5:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20%chance

3102

OptionVotes

YES

NO

200

50

Will the AT Protocol (bluesky) end up being used as a distributed ledger?

Aug 20, 8:00 AMJun 26, 11:59 AM

30.88%chance

251

OptionVotes

YES

NO

150

67

Is Joscha Bach part of "the universal program"/"universal distribution"/minlength sentence to compress the universe?

Sep 18, 7:42 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

35%chance

321

OptionVotes

YES

NO

108

77

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