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Top stories

Cummins Beats Estimates as Data-Center Power Demand Lifts Q2 Results

Company Earnings

Cummins Beats Estimates as Data-Center Power Demand Lifts Q2 Results

Authors

5

1 day ago

Prediction markets for Distribution

Will GiveWell fund Mass distribution of azithromycin to reduce child mortality by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.08%chance

188507

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6378

3288

Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?

Nov 14, 3:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.61%chance

745724

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2141

900

Neural Nets will be able to design, code and distribute whole apps by the end of 2025.

Mar 28, 9:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.66%chance

313364

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1350

758

Will there be a ban on distribution of deepfakes of public persons in the US by the end of 2025?

Jan 26, 4:52 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

38.21%chance

322282

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1054

888

Will the US distribute a broadly available vaccine for the 2025-26 flu season by November 1, 2025?

Feb 16, 11:00 PMNov 3, 7:59 AM

66.46%chance

112156

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1408

710

Will Manifold support distribution markets beyond numerical ranges by the end of 2025?

Dec 10, 3:58 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

22.88%chance

81149

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1836

545

Zuck changes his mind and is strongly against open distribution of advanced or open source AI/LLMs by mid 2028

Aug 22, 4:35 AMJul 1, 3:59 AM

33.96%chance

191133

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1395

717

Will Twitter be an open distributed system before 2026?

Nov 16, 11:16 AMJan 1, 12:01 AM

4.62%chance

171130

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1932

895

Overhead electric distribution still primarily built on wood poles in 50 years?

Apr 22, 7:49 PMApr 22, 11:59 PM

56.09%chance

11561

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1130

885

Will Manifold add Metaculus style probability-distribution answers before 2033?

Dec 10, 8:16 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

69.71%chance

12507

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1115

915

Nate Soares (@so8res) will wager at least 9k in mana (roughly equally distributed) across the following predictions.

May 30, 10:10 AMDec 31, 10:54 AM

9.91%chance

3212

OptionVotes

YES

NO

302

33

Will Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR) distribute grants more than 10% of the US NIH's total grants in 2025?

Mar 23, 11:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.17%chance

473

OptionVotes

YES

NO

152

66

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Aug 5, 2025
Aug 5, 2025
Company Earnings
Stocks
Business
Cummins Beats Estimates as Data-Center Power Demand Lifts Q2 Results
Authors
5
1 day ago

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