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Prediction markets for Distribution
Will GiveWell fund Mass distribution of azithromycin to reduce child mortality by 1st January 2027?
Dec 17, 4:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
26.08%chance
188507
OptionVotes
6378
3288
Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?
Nov 14, 3:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
63.61%chance
745724
OptionVotes
2141
900
Neural Nets will be able to design, code and distribute whole apps by the end of 2025.
Mar 28, 9:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
28.66%chance
313364
OptionVotes
1350
758
Will there be a ban on distribution of deepfakes of public persons in the US by the end of 2025?
Jan 26, 4:52 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
38.21%chance
322282
OptionVotes
1054
888
Will the US distribute a broadly available vaccine for the 2025-26 flu season by November 1, 2025?
Feb 16, 11:00 PMNov 3, 7:59 AM
66.46%chance
112156
OptionVotes
1408
710
Will Manifold support distribution markets beyond numerical ranges by the end of 2025?
Dec 10, 3:58 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM
22.88%chance
81149
OptionVotes
1836
545
Zuck changes his mind and is strongly against open distribution of advanced or open source AI/LLMs by mid 2028
Aug 22, 4:35 AMJul 1, 3:59 AM
33.96%chance
191133
OptionVotes
1395
717
Will Twitter be an open distributed system before 2026?
Nov 16, 11:16 AMJan 1, 12:01 AM
4.62%chance
171130
OptionVotes
1932
895
Overhead electric distribution still primarily built on wood poles in 50 years?
Apr 22, 7:49 PMApr 22, 11:59 PM
56.09%chance
11561
OptionVotes
1130
885
Will Manifold add Metaculus style probability-distribution answers before 2033?
Dec 10, 8:16 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
69.71%chance
12507
OptionVotes
1115
915
Nate Soares (@so8res) will wager at least 9k in mana (roughly equally distributed) across the following predictions.
May 30, 10:10 AMDec 31, 10:54 AM
9.91%chance
3212
OptionVotes
302
33
Will Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR) distribute grants more than 10% of the US NIH's total grants in 2025?
Mar 23, 11:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
30.17%chance
473
OptionVotes
152
66