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Prediction markets for DO

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

71.75%chance

464679780

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17782

9207

How well will Grok 4 do on Frontier Math?

Jul 10, 2:04 AMJan 1, 2:54 AM

27135053

A major publication is doing a profile on me. Will it be a hit piece?

Oct 10, 4:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25.84%chance

289119599

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14110

7779

By 2027 there will be a robot capable of performing every task a residential electrician can do

Jan 19, 5:29 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

10.18%chance

11121915

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3515

1464

1-hour AGI. A system capable of any computer-based task a human can do in 1 hour will be developed by end of 2026.

Mar 8, 4:51 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30%chance

413738

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1029

629

(Cash prizes if you’re right!) Should I do a cheap outdoor wedding?

Jun 10, 2:03 AMSep 14, 11:59 PM

58%chance

223202

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1175

851

If Manifold runs a hiring-decision market in the next ~year, will they think it's worth doing multiple more times?

Sep 24, 11:52 PMOct 2, 6:59 AM

45.19%chance

252473

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1498

1335

OpenAI Agent continue refusing to do captchas by mid-2026?

Jul 18, 5:29 PMJul 18, 5:26 PM

46.41%chance

212381

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1707

1276

Do we live in a simulation?

Nov 24, 11:09 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

34.45%chance

442038

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1017

976

Will someone do something IRL to profit on Manifold that gets news/courts coverage by 2035?

May 21, 11:25 AMMay 25, 3:59 PM

52.41%chance

181709

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1049

953

Will I manage to do a one-arm pull up in 2025?

Jul 27, 11:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.11%chance

181304

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1421

704

Will Meter, Inc do an initial public offering or get acquired before the end of 2030?

May 25, 3:30 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

37.47%chance

13159

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1875

1696

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