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Prediction markets for DO

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

81.3%chance

500718759

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16246

14400

By 2027 there will be a robot capable of performing every task a residential electrician can do

Jan 19, 5:29 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

9.7%chance

11122065

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3665

1447

When will I do my first clean pull-up?

Jan 4, 12:18 AMJan 31, 10:59 PM

99994

OptionProbability

Dec 2026 or later/never

Apr 2026

Jun 2026

Feb 2026

Mar 2026

May 2026

Jul 2026

Aug 2026

Sep 2026

Nov 2026

Oct 2026

Jan 2026

15

9

9

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

7

6

Do you like 96% odds?

May 4, 9:24 AMMay 11, 4:56 PM

95.52%chance

204912

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10047

8925

OpenAI Agent continue refusing to do captchas by mid-2026?

Jul 18, 5:29 PMJul 18, 5:26 PM

74.75%chance

254460

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2467

967

Which computational universe do we live in?

Sep 17, 5:07 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

283938

OptionProbability

Cryptomania

Minicrypt

Heuristica

Pessiland

Algorithmica

75

8

7

7

3

Do we live in a simulation?

Nov 24, 11:09 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

38%chance

472283

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1030

921

Can i do 100 days of tango under 1 minute (LinkedIn game) second try

Apr 7, 8:49 AMJul 16, 8:48 AM

40.88%chance

132012

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1203

831

Will someone do something IRL to profit on Manifold that gets news/courts coverage by 2035?

May 21, 11:25 AMMay 25, 3:59 PM

52.41%chance

181709

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1049

953

Will Alex Honnold ever stop doing free-solo ascents?

Jan 22, 12:54 AMJan 22, 4:59 AM

65.83%chance

24897

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1629

1089

If AI has an okay outcome, was it because of humanity doing something beyond business-as-usual?

Apr 7, 6:10 PMApr 7, 6:08 PM

65%chance

2411

OptionVotes

NO

YES

136

73

Will Meter, Inc do an initial public offering or get acquired before the end of 2030?

May 25, 3:30 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

37.47%chance

13159

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1875

1696

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