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Prediction markets for DO

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

78.67%chance

480696936

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16706

12559

Do you like 95% odds?

Jan 31, 9:27 PMFeb 7, 8:04 PM

95%chance

10956549

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10000

10000

By 2027 there will be a robot capable of performing every task a residential electrician can do

Jan 19, 5:29 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

10.02%chance

11121965

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3565

1458

Will models be able to do the work of an AI researcher/engineer before 2027?

Jun 5, 12:43 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

25.18%chance

435831

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1750

589

Do you like 5% odds?

Jan 30, 9:39 PMFeb 6, 8:04 PM

5%chance

365157

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10000

10000

Which computational universe do we live in?

Sep 17, 5:07 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

283938

OptionProbability

Cryptomania

Minicrypt

Heuristica

Pessiland

Algorithmica

75

8

7

7

3

OpenAI Agent continue refusing to do captchas by mid-2026?

Jul 18, 5:29 PMJul 18, 5:26 PM

63.8%chance

233030

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1868

1229

When will I do my first clean pull-up?

Jan 4, 12:18 AMJan 31, 10:59 PM

82131

OptionProbability

Feb 2026

Jan 2026

Mar 2026

Apr 2026

May 2026

Dec 2026 or later/never

Jun 2026

Jul 2026

Aug 2026

Sep 2026

Nov 2026

Oct 2026

16

13

10

10

9

8

6

6

6

6

6

5

Do we live in a simulation?

Nov 24, 11:09 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

35.1%chance

452048

OptionVotes

YES

NO

999

986

Will someone do something IRL to profit on Manifold that gets news/courts coverage by 2035?

May 21, 11:25 AMMay 25, 3:59 PM

52.41%chance

181709

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1049

953

Will Alex Honnold ever stop doing free-solo ascents?

Jan 22, 12:54 AMJan 22, 4:59 AM

65.83%chance

24897

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1629

1089

Will Meter, Inc do an initial public offering or get acquired before the end of 2030?

May 25, 3:30 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

37.47%chance

13159

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1875

1696

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