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Prediction markets for DO

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

74.4%chance

471686608

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17380

10301

A major publication is doing a profile on me. Will it be a hit piece?

Oct 10, 4:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21.21%chance

293121424

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16528

7039

By 2027 there will be a robot capable of performing every task a residential electrician can do

Jan 19, 5:29 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

10.02%chance

11121965

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3565

1458

Will I manage to do a one-arm pull up in 2025?

Jul 27, 11:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.35%chance

425544

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2348

426

Which computational universe do we live in?

Sep 17, 5:07 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

283938

OptionProbability

Cryptomania

Minicrypt

Heuristica

Pessiland

Algorithmica

75

8

7

7

3

1-hour AGI. A system capable of any computer-based task a human can do in 1 hour will be developed by end of 2026.

Mar 8, 4:51 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30%chance

413738

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1029

629

OpenAI Agent continue refusing to do captchas by mid-2026?

Jul 18, 5:29 PMJul 18, 5:26 PM

52.98%chance

222672

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1512

1469

Do we live in a simulation?

Nov 24, 11:09 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

35.1%chance

452048

OptionVotes

YES

NO

999

986

Will someone do something IRL to profit on Manifold that gets news/courts coverage by 2035?

May 21, 11:25 AMMay 25, 3:59 PM

52.41%chance

181709

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1049

953

AI Warning Signs: Before 2030, will an AI system scam someone without being given explicit instructions to do so?

Jan 18, 7:06 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

60%chance

9762

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1225

816

Will a manifold user do something very cool by the end of 2029?

Nov 8, 3:18 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

31.94%chance

13498

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1056

843

Will Meter, Inc do an initial public offering or get acquired before the end of 2030?

May 25, 3:30 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

37.47%chance

13159

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1875

1696

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