OptionProbability
Other
Yulia Navalnaya
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
UNRWA
Donald Trump
NATO
Julian Assange
David Attenborough
Antonio Guterres
Greta Thunberg
Noam Chomsky
MSF / Doctors without Borders
Vladimir Putin
Bill Gates / Gates Foundation
The International Court of Justice
UNESCO
Philippe Lazzarini
Joe Biden
Alexei Navalny
Kyaw Moe Tun
José Andrés
World Uyghur Congress
Maria Corina Machado
Eliezer Yudkowsky
OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights
Timnit Gebru
Elon Musk
Netanyahu
JD Vance
AOC
Pope Francis
Ursula von der Leyen
Keir Starmer
European Union
Ilham Tohti
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya
International Criminal Court
Jacinda Ardern
Raoni Metuktire
José Andrés
Loujain al-Hathloul
Ilwad Elman
Wa Lone
Narendra Modi
Yvonne Ridley
Hajer Sharief
Alexis Tsipras
Isaias Afwerki
Nathan Law
Agnes Chow
Filippo Grandi
Yuan Longping
Mahbouba Seraj
Narges Mohammadi
Victoria Tauli-Corpuz
Juan Carlos Jintiach
Joshua Wong
Ernest Moniz
DOGE
Kamala Harris
International Fact-Checking Network
Manifold Markets
Justin Trudeau
Petro Porošenko
Aleksandr Lukashenko
Sam Altman
Kim Jong Un
29
19
15
5
5
3
3
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Proposal: representative security council! Add at least one member with <20k net worth
Proposal: Donate it all to MSF / Doctors without Borders
ACCEPTED: Don't use the bomb before it reaches 10K (minimum)
Proposal: add @Stralor to the security council
ACCEPTED: Donate 50% to GiveWell, 50% to Internet Archive
Donate to Mriya https://manifold.markets/ArtemAvramenko/will-the-mriya-fund-raise-2-million?r=TG9yZWxhaQ
Donate 34% to give well, 33 % to internet archive, 33% to mriya
Proposal: don't use the bomb until it reaches 20k mana kilotons
Proposal: Loan Tumbles 1000 mana to add to the bounty, then add Tumbles to the security council
Proposal: Add @SanghyeonSeo to the security council
Proposal: add @Joshua as a member of the security council
Proposal: Bet it on YES for Michelle Obama winning the 2024 presidential election
Proposal: Donate it all to Givewell (PASSED AWAITING APPROVAL)
Proposal: add @odoacre to the security council
Proposal: Bet YES on the first Yes or No market posted after 1 AM EST on March 9th
Proposal: Vow not to use the bomb on whalebait markets
Proposal: EMERGENCY BACKUP BOMB - donate it all to internet archive in case of pivot backfire
Proposal: Loan it all to @retr0id for 1 month, at 10% monthly interest
Proposal: Bet it all on coinflip markets (51% YES) and see how many times it ~doubles
Proposal: the security council must have at least 3 members to arm the bomb
Drop a 1 kiloton "shot across the bow" spirit bomb directly on the new manifold government https://manifold.markets/bens/will-i-receive-the-mandate-of-the-p
Proposal: Boost Bomb, spend the mana boosting question(s) to be determined
Proposal: Whale Bomb: Use the bomb on a whalebait market
Proposal: a member of the security counsel can be voted off with a supermajority of its members >66%
Proposal: True Love Bomb, spread the mana by making large bets on markets with <3 traders or markets created by new users
Proposal: Create a ticking mechanism with a mana goal and a deadline, such that either: 1) the deadline is reached and the bomb is detonated, or 2) the mana goal is reached and the deadline is extended
Proposal: Give 10% to @geuber_
Proposal: add @AmmonLam to the security council
Proposal: Use it to develop a rival “Coolfold Partner Program,” award it as bounties to promising new/cool market creators
Proposal: Add @Tumbles to the security council
Proposal: Donate it all to Poker Night on Manifund
Proposal: Use the mana to buy tickets for Manifest for spirit bomb contributors who are able to make it
Proposal: Bet it on LK-99 superconductor market (YES or NO to be decided).
add @AbhinavSrinivas to the security council
Proposal: add @KongoLandwalker to the security counsil
Proposal: Cursed Boost Bomb, use it to boost the most cursed/annoying market to impact the feed of every user for days to come
Proposal: Subsidy Bomb, put the mana into one specific market, target to be determined
ACCEPTED: don't use the bomb before it reaches 5K (minimum)
ACCEPTED: require a contribution of at least 1000M for any future member to be considered for the security council
DUPLICATE - NA
ACCEPTED: security council candidates must have 20 YES positions for them to be considered
ACCEPTED: Proposed security council members cannot be considered without reaching 100% YES at some point after having 20 unique YES positions.
ACCEPTED: Proposals need at least 10 more Yes positions than NO positions to be considered (YES positions minus NO positions must be 10 or more)
ACCEPTED: All proposals must have at least 80% to be considered
ACCEPTED: proposals can be cancelled if there are 10 more NO positions than YES positions (they can be resubmitted though)
ACCEPTED: Proposed security council members cannot be considered without reaching 95% YES at some point after having 20 unique YES positions. (amending previous 100%)
ACCEPTED: change approval for resolutions to 95%, and a difference of 20 Y to N for sec council member proposals
Proposal: Poker bomb - use it to fund a massive prize pool for a coolfold poker event
Proposal: Max out a specific Manifund project (TBD)
Proposal: add @stefanie as a member of the security council
Proposal: Distribute among active players in Bronze
Proposal: Poll bomb - give chris enough mana to finish hogwarts/trump polls :)
Proposal: Stochastic Bomb: use it to make as many markets about Jose Luis Ricon and StochasticParrot as possible
Proposal: use the bomb to disrupt manifold politics conditional markets.
Proposal: Use the bomb to create a multiple choice market with 100 answers, and pour the rest into boosting it
Proposal: repeal the ban on using the bomb before it reaches 5K mana
Proposal: add a random number generator to the security council
Proposal: Disarm the bomb until April 2nd 2024
Proposal: Immolation Bomb to protest the pivot
Proposal: Disarmament & Peace, permanently deactivate the bomb
Proposal: Love Bomb, spread the mana from the bomb as subsidy among the top 100 markets on browse
Proposal: block another user's limit order on a specific market, target TBD (ie: set up a new large Limit Order that is slightly below/above theirs)
Proposal: Vow not to use the bomb on any small creators or their markets, without their permission (<1000 traders)
Proposal: Found a Republican PAC to make election predictions on Manifold more accurate
Proposal: Distribute it to all the users that contributed to it evenly
Proposal: the greed ending, split the bomb evenly among members of the security council
Proposal: add @firstuserhere to the security council
97
95
95
94
94
93
91
87
84
81
79
79
77
77
73
71
71
70
69
69
69
67
66
65
65
61
60
56
55
55
55
54
53
53
52
51
51
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
49
48
48
48
47
47
44
42
42
41
34
32
32
26
25
23
18
15
11
OptionProbability
Other
Yulia Navalnaya
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
MSF / Doctors without Borders
Abdullah Öcalan
The International Court of Justice
UNESCO
Philippe Lazzarini
UNRWA
Kyaw Moe Tun
José Andrés
World Uyghur Congress
Maria Corina Machado
Eliezer Yudkowsky
OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights
Timnit Gebru
Elon Musk
NATO
Donald Trump
Netanyahu
JD Vance
AOC
Antonio Guterres
Julian Assange
David Attenborough
Pope Francis
Ursula von der Leyen
Keir Starmer
European Union
Ilham Tohti
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya
International Court of Justice
Jacinda Ardern
Raoni Metuktire
Greta Thunberg
José Andrés
Loujain al-Hathloul
Ilwad Elman
Wa Lone
Narendra Modi
Yvonne Ridley
Hajer Sharief
Alexis Tsipras
Isaias Afwerki
Nathan Law
Agnes Chow
Filippo Grandi
Yuan Longping
Mahbouba Seraj
Narges Mohammadi
Victoria Tauli-Corpuz
Juan Carlos Jintiach
Joshua Wong
Ernest Moniz
Kamala Harris
Noam Chomsky
International Fact-Checking Network
Justin Trudeau
Vladimir Putin
Aleksandr Lukashenko
Sam Altman
Bill Gates / Gates Foundation
Kim Jong Un
Joe Biden
Alexei Navalny
DOGE
Manifold Markets
32
22
5
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0