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Prediction markets for DOCU

Are the telepathy tapes actually documenting psychic abilities? (scientific consensus by 2026)

Dec 28, 2:59 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

1.88%chance

2733704

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5512

754

At the beginning of 2032, will Jeanne Calment's record for longest documented lifespan (122 years and 164 days) still hold?

Dec 13, 9:00 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

90.59%chance

436175

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1960

616

How many videos will Species | Documenting AGI publish in 2026?

Jan 3, 7:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52938

OptionProbability

10 - 19

20 - 29

30 - 39

40 - 49

50 - 60

Above 60

23

23

20

13

10

10

Will the European Commission publish a new quantum strategy document within the next 60 days?

Jan 26, 8:22 PMMar 27, 8:21 PM

70.56%chance

192177

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1548

646

Who is involved in the Russian influencer scheme (Doppelganger / Good Old USA), according to court documents?

Sep 7, 5:01 AMJul 1, 5:59 AM

5685

OptionProbability

Jill Stein

Tom Cotton

Ron Johnson

Nick Fuentes

Glenn Greenwald

Kari Lake

Ian Miles Cheong

Bret Weinstein

Lauren Boebert

Eric Weinstein

Jack Posobiec

Rand Paul

Lex Fridman

Donald Trump

62

57

55

54

51

50

50

50

50

50

50

47

41

17

Will "Claude 4.5 Opus' Soul Document" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 29, 10:29 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

18.8%chance

9460

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

739

Trump's trove of mishandled classified documents disclosed to have information on UFOs by 2040

Jun 8, 3:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.82%chance

6188

OptionVotes

YES

NO

159

54

Will "SB-1047 Documentary: The Post-Mortem" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Aug 3, 1:14 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.14%chance

2171

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1151

977

Will 50 Cent make another documentary about Diddy/Other celebrities?

Jan 10, 7:59 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

29.93%chance

6152

OptionVotes

YES

NO

245

169

Spirit Awards: Best Documentary

Jan 23, 12:39 AMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

360

OptionProbability

The Perfect Neighbor

Come See Me in the Good Light

Endless Cookie

My Undesirable Friends: Part I - Last Air in Moscow

The Tale of Silyan

27

21

17

17

17

Will a toucan be documented/filmed to murder and eat a corvid by EOY 2029

Jan 10, 3:57 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.24%chance

230

OptionVotes

YES

NO

100

50

Who is on the Doppelganger / Good Old USA anti-influencer list of Russian opponents according to court documents?

Sep 13, 8:45 PMSep 7, 5:59 AM

110

OptionProbability

Michael C. Moynihan

Destiny

Drew Pavlou

Francis Fukuyama

50

50

50

49

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