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Prediction markets for DOCU

Are the telepathy tapes actually documenting psychic abilities? (scientific consensus by 2026)

Dec 28, 2:59 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

1.88%chance

2733704

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5512

754

How many videos will Species | Documenting AGI publish in 2026?

Jan 3, 7:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

77577

OptionProbability

10 - 19

20 - 29

30 - 39

40 - 49

50 - 60

Above 60

69

11

5

5

5

5

At the beginning of 2032, will Jeanne Calment's record for longest documented lifespan (122 years and 164 days) still hold?

Dec 13, 9:00 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

90.59%chance

436175

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1960

616

Will Donald Trump be convicted on one or more counts in the classified documents case?

Oct 15, 9:42 AMJul 15, 5:33 PM

4.98%chance

161263

OptionVotes

YES

NO

308

5

Pope Leo XIV issues a document addressing birth control teaching by December 31, 2026?

Aug 17, 1:08 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

20.75%chance

18774

OptionVotes

YES

NO

318

116

Will "The AI Doc: Or How I Became an Apocaloptimist" be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 2027 Academy Award

Mar 27, 6:17 AMMar 21, 11:59 PM

41.57%chance

7506

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1186

843

Will "Claude 4.5 Opus' Soul Document" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 29, 10:29 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

18.8%chance

9460

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

739

Will any country conduct a large-scale project to revise and clarify language used in legal documents before 2030?

Dec 21, 12:24 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

15405

OptionProbability

Venezuela

Netherlands

Estonia

France

No country before 2030

Norway

Switzerland

Germany

UK

Sweden

USA

Poland

50

50

50

41

41

41

34

34

34

28

20

13

Will a major non-documentary film that is critical of China be released in the US before 2030?

Nov 8, 5:02 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

66.24%chance

9276

OptionVotes

NO

YES

240

188

Will "SB-1047 Documentary: The Post-Mortem" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Aug 3, 1:14 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.14%chance

2171

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1151

977

Who is on the Doppelganger / Good Old USA anti-influencer list of Russian opponents according to court documents?

Sep 13, 8:45 PMSep 7, 5:59 AM

278

OptionProbability

Michael C. Moynihan

Francis Fukuyama

Destiny

Drew Pavlou

48

47

42

42

Will a TikTok-native artist exhibit at Documenta 16 (2027)?

Feb 17, 12:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70%chance

377

OptionVotes

NO

YES

153

65

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