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Prediction markets for Documented

How many videos will Species | Documenting AGI publish in 2026?

Jan 3, 7:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1112369

OptionProbability

10 - 19

20 - 29

30 - 39

40 - 49

50 - 60

Above 60

80

9

3

3

3

3

At the beginning of 2032, will Jeanne Calment's record for longest documented lifespan (122 years and 164 days) still hold?

Dec 13, 9:00 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

90.59%chance

436175

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1960

616

When in 2026 will US federal government present a new narrative, with documentation, regarding UAP/UFO events?

Apr 10, 7:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

131390

OptionProbability

Will not occur in 2026

Between September 1st and October end

Between November 1st and end of 2026

Between June 1st and August end

Before June 1st

47

16

14

13

10

Pope Leo XIV issues a document addressing birth control teaching by December 31, 2026?

Aug 17, 1:08 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

16.69%chance

19825

OptionVotes

YES

NO

371

104

Will "Claude 4.5 Opus' Soul Document" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 29, 10:29 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

18.8%chance

9460

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

739

Will any country conduct a large-scale project to revise and clarify language used in legal documents before 2030?

Dec 21, 12:24 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

15405

OptionProbability

Venezuela

Netherlands

Estonia

France

No country before 2030

Norway

Switzerland

Germany

UK

Sweden

USA

Poland

50

50

50

41

41

41

34

34

34

28

20

13

Will "Practical Learnings from Synthetic Document F..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jul 22, 4:09 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

10.8%chance

3296

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1290

959

Trump's trove of mishandled classified documents disclosed to have information on UFOs by 2040

Jun 8, 3:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.82%chance

6188

OptionVotes

YES

NO

159

54

Will "Training on Documents About Reward Hacking In..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 22, 7:50 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

5%chance

1164

OptionVotes

YES

NO

264

85

Will at least one major LLM publicly document graph-based RAG as a core part of its production architecture in 2026?

Jan 20, 10:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.79%chance

5117

OptionVotes

YES

NO

184

54

Will Jon Zherka have a real, unironic, documented mental breakdown in the next 5 years?

Jan 9, 9:57 PMJan 9, 10:59 PM

56%chance

687

OptionVotes

NO

YES

156

103

Who is on the Doppelganger / Good Old USA anti-influencer list of Russian opponents according to court documents?

Sep 13, 8:45 PMSep 7, 5:59 AM

278

OptionProbability

Michael C. Moynihan

Francis Fukuyama

Destiny

Drew Pavlou

48

47

42

42

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