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Prediction markets for Documented

Will there be documented human-to-human transmission of H5N1 (bird flu) before 2026?

Apr 14, 3:21 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

2.48%chance

11137280

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6484

183

Are the telepathy tapes actually documenting psychic abilities? (scientific consensus by 2026)

Dec 28, 2:59 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

2.06%chance

2732954

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5078

763

At the beginning of 2032, will Jeanne Calment's record for longest documented lifespan (122 years and 164 days) still hold?

Dec 13, 9:00 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

90.59%chance

436175

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1960

616

Will anybody leak classified documents to settle a market on Manifold Markets before 2026?

Apr 22, 10:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

5.28%chance

222258

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2644

803

2025: Most common way to write documents in Latex is to give a natural language description to a tool based on LLMs?

Apr 1, 7:22 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

16%chance

301541

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2041

618

Who is involved in the Russian influencer scheme (Doppelganger / Good Old USA), according to court documents?

Sep 7, 5:01 AMJul 1, 5:59 AM

5685

OptionProbability

Jill Stein

Tom Cotton

Ron Johnson

Nick Fuentes

Glenn Greenwald

Kari Lake

Ian Miles Cheong

Bret Weinstein

Lauren Boebert

Eric Weinstein

Jack Posobiec

Rand Paul

Lex Fridman

Donald Trump

62

57

55

54

51

50

50

50

50

50

50

47

41

17

Will "Claude 4.5 Opus' Soul Document" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 29, 10:29 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

15.38%chance

7425

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1016

910

Will any country conduct a large-scale project to revise and clarify language used in legal documents before 2030?

Dec 21, 12:24 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

15405

OptionProbability

Venezuela

Netherlands

Estonia

France

No country before 2030

Norway

Switzerland

Germany

UK

Sweden

USA

Poland

50

50

50

41

41

41

34

34

34

28

20

13

Trump's trove of mishandled classified documents disclosed to have information on UFOs by 2040

Jun 8, 3:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.82%chance

6188

OptionVotes

YES

NO

159

54

Will "Training on Documents About Reward Hacking In..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 22, 7:50 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

5%chance

1164

OptionVotes

YES

NO

264

85

Will Jon Zherka have a real, unironic, documented mental breakdown in the next 5 years?

Jan 9, 9:57 PMJan 9, 10:59 PM

56%chance

687

OptionVotes

NO

YES

156

103

Who is on the Doppelganger / Good Old USA anti-influencer list of Russian opponents according to court documents?

Sep 13, 8:45 PMSep 7, 5:59 AM

110

OptionProbability

Michael C. Moynihan

Destiny

Drew Pavlou

Francis Fukuyama

50

50

50

49

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