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Prediction markets for DOE

Does P = NP?

Mar 4, 12:30 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

13%chance

22576231

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6518

5906

Does Martingale betting have zero expected value even with unlimited funds? (note caveats)

Nov 12, 8:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.34%chance

4853458

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2009

482

Does Planet Nine exist?

Mar 7, 3:55 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

25.74%chance

11914425

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1753

489

Does God exist?

Mar 27, 3:06 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

37.41%chance

14414378

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1556

1092

Does Nectome's preservation protocol work?

Mar 12, 6:22 AMJan 2, 6:11 AM

44.1%chance

3712703

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11259

8882

Will Starship land on the moon before Blue Origin does?

May 19, 6:02 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

26.42%chance

5710897

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1749

303

Does GPT-5.2 use a different base model than GPT-5.1?

Dec 12, 6:34 PMDec 31, 6:34 PM

73%chance

144622

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1644

608

Does eating snow dehydrate you?

Apr 10, 4:08 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4.42%chance

333412

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1505

892

Does China have an ASML EUV machine? (as of June 19, 2026)

Jun 19, 3:31 PMJun 19, 11:59 PM

15%chance

163326

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7778

5347

Does AI help drug discovery?

Oct 14, 1:50 AMJan 2, 2:47 AM

77.52%chance

61565

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4063

2475

Does 1000 ppm carbon dioxide have significant negative effects on cognition or health?

Oct 21, 5:19 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

27.64%chance

181549

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1726

321

Does an AI disaster kill at least 1,000 people before 2040?

Jul 2, 10:54 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

59.8%chance

14722

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1065

874

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