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Prediction markets for DOE

If Elon Musk does something as a result of his AI angst by 2025, will Eliezer Yudkowsky judge it to be a positive or neutral initiative (as opposed to negative)?

Feb 26, 6:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.59%chance

17476866

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19402

2677

Does Martingale betting have zero expected value even with unlimited funds? (note caveats)

Nov 12, 8:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8%chance

4752333

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3139

336

Will the IDF kill more of Hamas's October 7th hostages than Hamas does?

Oct 20, 5:52 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12.94%chance

10019278

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2588

445

Does P = NP?

Mar 4, 12:30 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

10%chance

11317135

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1039

777

Does God exist?

Mar 27, 3:06 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

37%chance

14214360

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1548

1105

Does Planet Nine exist?

Mar 7, 3:55 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

39.4%chance

11914105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1324

693

Will Starship land on the moon before Blue Origin does?

May 19, 6:02 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

16.59%chance

539599

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2120

204

Does Nishad Singh get >=1 years sentence?

Dec 13, 1:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1%chance

166488

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3803

12

Does eating snow dehydrate you?

Apr 10, 4:08 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4.15%chance

323360

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1600

888

Does O3 use the same base model as O1? (Conditional on any OpenAI confirmation)

Jan 14, 12:36 PMDec 31, 1:00 AM

43.44%chance

141902

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1141

876

Does an AI disaster kill at least 1,000 people before 2040?

Jul 2, 10:54 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

58.04%chance

13682

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1093

834

Does manifold prefer Separate Peace or Movable Feast?

Jan 10, 10:31 PMFeb 10, 4:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

a separate peace - knowles

a movable feast - hemmingway

50

50

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