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Prediction markets for DOE

Does Martingale betting have zero expected value even with unlimited funds? (note caveats)

Nov 12, 8:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9.86%chance

4852701

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2766

372

Does P = NP?

Mar 4, 12:30 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

7.98%chance

11417406

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1019

976

Does God exist?

Mar 27, 3:06 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

37.41%chance

14414378

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1556

1092

Does Planet Nine exist?

Mar 7, 3:55 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

39.4%chance

11914105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1324

693

Does Nectome's preservation protocol work?

Mar 12, 6:22 AMJan 2, 6:11 AM

49.21%chance

3611603

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10159

9844

Will Starship land on the moon before Blue Origin does?

May 19, 6:02 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

11.61%chance

539955

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2427

154

Does eating snow dehydrate you?

Apr 10, 4:08 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4.42%chance

333412

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1505

892

Does an AI disaster kill at least 1,000 people before 2040?

Jul 2, 10:54 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

59.8%chance

14722

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1065

874

Does RL training with verifiers help on tasks without a verifier?

Dec 4, 11:56 AMDec 5, 11:49 AM

51.12%chance

10441

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1023

978

Does RL harm off-target capabilities? Is that temporary?

Dec 4, 12:08 PMDec 5, 12:04 PM

49.37%chance

9369

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1013

988

Does rapamyacin significantly increase the lifespan of dogs?

Dec 26, 3:41 AMFeb 1, 11:59 PM

69.61%chance

13183

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1005

990

Will ASI (if it is created and also does not wipe out humanity) care about Morphological freedom?

Jul 28, 11:38 PMJan 1, 12:33 AM

48.88%chance

479

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1023

978

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