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Prediction markets for DOE

Does Martingale betting have zero expected value even with unlimited funds? (note caveats)

Nov 12, 8:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.04%chance

4852336

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3129

336

Does P = NP?

Mar 4, 12:30 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

7.98%chance

11417406

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1019

976

Does God exist?

Mar 27, 3:06 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

37.15%chance

14314373

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1551

1100

Does Planet Nine exist?

Mar 7, 3:55 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

39.4%chance

11914105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1324

693

Will Starship land on the moon before Blue Origin does?

May 19, 6:02 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

12.38%chance

539849

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2370

162

Does eating snow dehydrate you?

Apr 10, 4:08 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4.42%chance

333412

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1505

892

Does an AI disaster kill at least 1,000 people before 2040?

Jul 2, 10:54 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

58.04%chance

13682

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1093

834

Does RL training with verifiers help on tasks without a verifier?

Dec 4, 11:56 AMDec 5, 11:49 AM

48.51%chance

9389

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1030

971

Does RL harm off-target capabilities? Is that temporary?

Dec 4, 12:08 PMDec 5, 12:04 PM

49.37%chance

9369

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1013

988

Does rapamyacin significantly increase the lifespan of dogs?

Dec 26, 3:41 AMFeb 1, 11:59 PM

71%chance

12163

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1052

970

Will ASI (if it is created and also does not wipe out humanity) care about Morphological freedom?

Jul 28, 11:38 PMJan 1, 12:33 AM

48.88%chance

479

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1023

978

Does manifold prefer Separate Peace or Movable Feast?

Jan 10, 10:31 PMFeb 10, 4:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

a separate peace - knowles

a movable feast - hemmingway

50

50

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