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Prediction markets for DOE

Does Martingale betting have zero expected value even with unlimited funds? (note caveats)

Nov 12, 8:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9.86%chance

4852701

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2766

372

Does P = NP?

Mar 4, 12:30 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

7.98%chance

11417406

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1019

976

Does Planet Nine exist?

Mar 7, 3:55 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

25.74%chance

11914425

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1753

489

Does God exist?

Mar 27, 3:06 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

37.41%chance

14414378

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1556

1092

Does Nectome's preservation protocol work?

Mar 12, 6:22 AMJan 2, 6:11 AM

49.21%chance

3611603

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10159

9844

Will Starship land on the moon before Blue Origin does?

May 19, 6:02 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

28.55%chance

5610837

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1689

326

Does GPT-5.2 use a different base model than GPT-5.1?

Dec 12, 6:34 PMDec 31, 6:34 PM

73%chance

144622

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1644

608

Does eating snow dehydrate you?

Apr 10, 4:08 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4.42%chance

333412

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YES

NO

1505

892

Does China have an ASML EUV machine? (as of June 19, 2026)

Jun 19, 3:31 PMJun 19, 11:59 PM

16.7%chance

132540

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7029

5488

Does Starship flight 150 happen before New Glenn 15?

Jun 17, 2:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30%chance

81219

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1528

655

Does an AI disaster kill at least 1,000 people before 2040?

Jul 2, 10:54 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

59.8%chance

14722

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YES

NO

1065

874

Does rapamyacin significantly increase the lifespan of dogs?

Dec 26, 3:41 AMFeb 1, 11:59 PM

69.61%chance

13183

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1005

990

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