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Top stories

Trump Administration Warns U.S. Blackouts Could Double by 2030 Amid 104 GW Plant Retirements, 800 Hours Outages, and AI Demand

Trump Administration Warns U.S. Blackouts Could Double by 2030 Amid 104 GW Plant Retirements, 800 Hours Outages, and AI Demand

Authors

18

27 days ago

US Domestic Policy

Trump Administration Scraps $4.9 Billion Loan for Grain Belt Express Line

Authors

5

11 days ago

Prediction markets for DOE

If Elon Musk does something as a result of his AI angst by 2025, will Eliezer Yudkowsky judge it to be a positive or neutral initiative (as opposed to negative)?

Feb 26, 6:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.12%chance

17366341

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8877

3516

Does Martingale betting have zero expected value even with unlimited funds? (note caveats)

Nov 12, 8:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.23%chance

4751212

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2018

481

Does P = NP?

Mar 4, 12:30 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

6.53%chance

11016884

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1193

1002

Does Planet Nine exist?

Mar 7, 3:55 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

39.4%chance

11914105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1324

693

Does God exist?

Mar 27, 3:06 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

37.43%chance

14013643

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1556

1091

Will Starship land on the moon before Blue Origin does?

May 19, 6:02 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

22.05%chance

518642

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1890

258

Does Nishad Singh get >=1 years sentence?

Dec 13, 1:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1%chance

166488

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3803

12

Does eating snow dehydrate you?

Apr 10, 4:08 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4.15%chance

323360

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1600

888

Does O3 use the same base model as O1? (Conditional on any OpenAI confirmation)

Jan 14, 12:36 PMDec 31, 1:00 AM

45.65%chance

131852

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1091

916

Does any eating window reduce chance of cancer related death?

Mar 24, 1:48 AMSep 16, 4:59 AM

52.19%chance

221456

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1101

887

Does an AI disaster kill at least 1,000 people before 2040?

Jul 2, 10:54 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

58.04%chance

13682

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1093

834

Does manifold prefer Separate Peace or Movable Feast?

Jan 10, 10:31 PMFeb 10, 4:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

a separate peace - knowles

a movable feast - hemmingway

50

50

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