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Prediction markets for DRA

Will the US start conscription / a draft?

Apr 28, 9:25 PMFeb 1, 10:25 PM

11.9%chance

2530892

OptionVotes

YES

NO

27235

3680

Will author Steven Brust complete the Dragaera series by the end of 2028?

Jun 18, 5:48 AMJan 1, 6:00 AM

76.93%chance

2119692

OptionVotes

NO

YES

18263

5476

What will be the net sentiment on AI benefits vs drawbacks in the latest YouGov US poll of 2026?

Jan 16, 8:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6317815

OptionProbability

-20 to -10pp

-10 to 0pp

-30 to -20pp

<-30pp (strongly negative)

0 to +10pp

+10 to +20pp

+20 to +30pp

≥+30pp (strongly positive)

27

25

23

11

8

3

2

2

Will an AI Minecraft Agent defeat the Ender Dragon before 2027?

Aug 26, 8:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

38.49%chance

505483

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1264

791

Will an AI Minecraft Agent defeat the Ender Dragon before 2028?

Aug 26, 8:36 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

69.97%chance

184299

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1526

655

A biological creature aesthetically recognizable as a dragon will exist on earth by 2060

Sep 27, 3:03 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

52.05%chance

303314

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1233

597

Will an AI Minecraft Agent defeat the Ender Dragon before 2029?

Aug 26, 8:37 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

79%chance

61726

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1940

516

Will Drake be formally charged with a crime before the end of 2028?

May 5, 1:35 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.58%chance

291472

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3090

1574

Will an AI agent be able to draw a mid-2024-diffusion-model-quality image in a standard drawing program by 2027?

Sep 2, 6:22 PMJan 1, 6:59 PM

51.46%chance

12934

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1032

975

Drama Index Stock (Permanent)

Nov 12, 3:06 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

10872

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1268

1220

Will we be able to sell the manifest dragon shirt designed by @etirabys in the manifold merch store?

Jan 26, 7:57 PMDec 31, 7:56 PM

63.4%chance

7710

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1316

760

Destiny Drama/Controversy Meter [Permanent]

Nov 16, 4:27 AMNov 16, 4:25 AM

67.47%chance

12285

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1032

915

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