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Prediction markets for DRA

Will the US start conscription / a draft?

Apr 28, 9:25 PMFeb 1, 10:25 PM

10%chance

1723976

OptionVotes

YES

NO

30000

3333

Will author Steven Brust complete the Dragaera series by the end of 2028?

Jun 18, 5:48 AMJan 1, 6:00 AM

61.64%chance

176330

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12676

7889

A biological creature aesthetically recognizable as a dragon will exist on earth by 2060

Sep 27, 3:03 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

53.17%chance

292694

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1252

580

Will an AI Minecraft Agent defeat the Ender Dragon before 2026?

Jan 21, 3:07 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

32.17%chance

212448

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1452

689

Can White force a draw without winning in chess?

May 22, 4:12 AMMay 11, 4:59 AM

82.78%chance

192175

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1552

830

Will Drake be found guilty of a crime before the end of 2028?

May 4, 4:34 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.17%chance

341610

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1810

785

Will there be serious AI safety drama at Meta AI before 2026?

Mar 20, 9:57 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

42.52%chance

321019

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1217

784

Will there be serious AI safety drama at Google or Deepmind before 2026?

Mar 20, 9:53 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

49.59%chance

28910

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1233

676

Drama Index Stock (Permanent)

Nov 12, 3:06 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

10872

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1268

1220

Will an AI agent be able to draw a mid-2024-diffusion-model-quality image in a standard drawing program by 2027?

Sep 2, 6:22 PMJan 1, 6:59 PM

59.87%chance

10781

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1224

822

Will Drake be formally charged with a crime before the end of 2028?

May 5, 1:35 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.26%chance

29722

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2372

1816

Destiny Drama/Controversy Meter [Permanent]

Nov 16, 4:27 AMNov 16, 4:25 AM

67.47%chance

12285

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1032

915

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