OptionProbability
Polymarket
Kalshi
IB / ForecastEx
Other
DraftKings or FanDuel
Betfair
Manifold
PredictIt
52
27
10
7
2
1
OptionVotes
NO
YES
361
316
Gambling losses deduction remains limited to 90% as laid out in OBBB
Mainstream pro gamblers move primarily to prediction markets for tax treatment
Administrative action classifies sports prediction markets as gambling for tax purposes
Court ruling classifies sports prediction markets as gambling for tax purposes
Legislation classifies sports prediction markets as gambling for tax purposes
Major sports book goes bankrupt because of OBBB by 2027-01-01
Major sports book restructures as a prediction market before 2026-01-01
Congress explicitly intervenes to restore 100% deduction (example Rep Titus FAIR BET act enacted)
66
51
42
38
37
34
32
100
