OptionVotes
NO
YES
1928
630
OptionProbability
Other
Singapore
France
China
Germany
Japan
South Korea
USA
Qatar
Iceland
Moldova
North Korea
Estonia
58
21
3
2
1
0
Moderately higher inflation (2.1%-3.0%)
Minimal impact on inflation (2% or no mention of AI in Fed comms)
Significantly higher inflation (>3.0%)
Significantly lower inflation (<1.5%)
Moderately lower inflation (1.5%-1.9%)
34
18
14
13
1 million Optimus bots delivered
20 million Tesla vehicles delivered
10 million active FSD subscriptions
$50 billion Adjusted EBITDA (sustained over four consecutive quarters)
$80 billion Adjusted EBITDA (sustained over four consecutive quarters)
$130 billion Adjusted EBITDA (sustained over four consecutive quarters)
At least 6 milestones achieved by 2035
Fewer than 6 milestones achieved by 2035
$210 billion Adjusted EBITDA (sustained over four consecutive quarters)
1 million Robotaxis in commercial operations
$300 billion Adjusted EBITDA (sustained over four consecutive quarters)
Tesla ceases operations before 2035
$400 billion Adjusted EBITDA (sustained over four consecutive quarters)
All 12 milestones achieved by 2035
69
66
50
38
24
17
106
94
