DRUG News

Will a senolytic drug be used clinically to slow, prevent, or reverse aging by the end of 2033?

Apr 10, 12:11 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

46.09%chance

15319616

OptionVotes

YES

1722

1481

Will a nontoxic MDMA-like drug be legally available in the US by 2030?

May 8, 8:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.51%chance

5014608

OptionVotes

YES

2801

671

What will the prevailing sentiment be about Rapamycin as a longevity drug in 2028?

Aug 4, 9:29 PMJul 2, 6:59 AM

121955

OptionProbability

Unproven but promising: Too early to tell

Ineffective: Any benefits are too small to be worth the drawbacks

Valuable but imperfect: Some healthy adults should consider it, but there are major drawbacks

Harmful/scandalous: Clear serious drawbacks that last beyond cessation of treatment

Wonder-drug: Most adults should consider it

By 2040 will we use Simulated Humans in Clinical Trials to accelerate drug development & approvals as Kurzweil Predicts?

Mar 8, 9:38 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

33.2%chance

201727

OptionVotes

YES

1018

936

Does AI help drug discovery?

Oct 14, 1:50 AMJan 2, 2:47 AM

77.52%chance

61565

OptionVotes

YES

4063

2475

More than 30% of US citizens will be on prescription drugs for weight loss by 2031

Jan 5, 1:07 AMJun 1, 7:00 PM

21.89%chance

371468

OptionVotes

YES

1189

1006

Will the FDA conditionally approve a drug to extend lifespan or healthspan in dogs before January 1, 2028?

Oct 1, 4:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.13%chance

31124

OptionVotes

YES

2535

1797

Hassabis's Isomorphic Labs will get a drug to FDA stage 3 or better by mid 2031

Jan 23, 6:16 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

44%chance

9898

OptionVotes

YES

1128

886

Which species will get the first regulator-approved drug with lifespan extension as the indication?

Oct 1, 4:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6680

OptionProbability

Dogs

None before 2035

Another species

Humans

By 2035, will the FDA approve a drug that slows the yearly progression of Alzheimer's disease by at least 50%?

Jan 14, 10:58 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

57.12%chance

8407

OptionVotes

YES

1154

866

Will the FDA approve any drug for an aging indication in humans before January 1, 2035?

Oct 1, 4:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.01%chance

3222

OptionVotes

YES

2247

2040

Will a human anti-aging drug trial with mortality or lifespan as primary endpoint be registered before 2030?

Oct 1, 4:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.19%chance

5157

OptionVotes

YES

2160

2062

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Prediction markets for DRUG

Prediction markets for DRUG

Prediction markets for DRUG

Will a senolytic drug be used clinically to slow, prevent, or reverse aging by the end of 2033?

Will a nontoxic MDMA-like drug be legally available in the US by 2030?

What will the prevailing sentiment be about Rapamycin as a longevity drug in 2028?

By 2040 will we use Simulated Humans in Clinical Trials to accelerate drug development & approvals as Kurzweil Predicts?

Does AI help drug discovery?

More than 30% of US citizens will be on prescription drugs for weight loss by 2031

Will the FDA conditionally approve a drug to extend lifespan or healthspan in dogs before January 1, 2028?

Hassabis's Isomorphic Labs will get a drug to FDA stage 3 or better by mid 2031

Which species will get the first regulator-approved drug with lifespan extension as the indication?

By 2035, will the FDA approve a drug that slows the yearly progression of Alzheimer's disease by at least 50%?

Will the FDA approve any drug for an aging indication in humans before January 1, 2035?

Will a human anti-aging drug trial with mortality or lifespan as primary endpoint be registered before 2030?

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