DRUG News

Will a senolytic drug be used clinically to slow, prevent, or reverse aging by the end of 2033?

Apr 10, 12:11 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

46.09%chance

15319616

OptionVotes

YES

1722

1481

Will a nontoxic MDMA-like drug be legally available in the US by 2030?

May 8, 8:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.03%chance

4914598

OptionVotes

YES

2832

661

Affordable weight loss drugs before 2030?

Sep 21, 12:02 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

72.57%chance

302098

OptionVotes

YES

1664

604

By 2040 will we use Simulated Humans in Clinical Trials to accelerate drug development & approvals as Kurzweil Predicts?

Mar 8, 9:38 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

35%chance

201677

OptionVotes

YES

1044

886

More than 30% of US citizens will be on prescription drugs for weight loss by 2031

Jan 5, 1:07 AMJun 1, 7:00 PM

21.89%chance

371468

OptionVotes

YES

1189

1006

What will the prevailing sentiment be about Rapamycin as a longevity drug in 2028?

Aug 4, 9:29 PMJul 2, 6:59 AM

10662

OptionProbability

Ineffective: Any benefits are too small to be worth the drawbacks

Unproven but promising: Too early to tell

Valuable but imperfect: Some healthy adults should consider it, but there are major drawbacks

Harmful/scandalous: Clear serious drawbacks that last beyond cessation of treatment

Wonder-drug: Most adults should consider it

Are Psychedelic Drugs Good for You?

Dec 31, 9:28 PMJan 31, 10:59 PM

44.83%chance

8519

OptionVotes

YES

1109

901

Will a drug that didn't go through human clinical trials be approved by 2034?

Apr 14, 7:22 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

27.09%chance

21506

OptionVotes

YES

1048

963

Will the FDA approved a drug that claims to reduce the number of hours of sleep you need by 2040?

Nov 12, 6:45 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

43.27%chance

3455

OptionVotes

YES

1145

873

By 2035, will the FDA approve a drug that slows the yearly progression of Alzheimer's disease by at least 50%?

Jan 14, 10:58 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

57.12%chance

8407

OptionVotes

YES

1154

866

Will the drug PP405 get FDA approval?

Aug 17, 5:09 PMJan 1, 6:07 PM

59.68%chance

4235

OptionVotes

YES

1217

822

Hassabis's Isomorphic Labs will get a drug to FDA stage 3 or better by mid 2031

Jan 23, 6:16 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

54%chance

3180

OptionVotes

YES

1083

923

DRUG News

Prediction markets for DRUG

Prediction markets for DRUG

Prediction markets for DRUG

Will a senolytic drug be used clinically to slow, prevent, or reverse aging by the end of 2033?

Will a nontoxic MDMA-like drug be legally available in the US by 2030?

Affordable weight loss drugs before 2030?

By 2040 will we use Simulated Humans in Clinical Trials to accelerate drug development & approvals as Kurzweil Predicts?

More than 30% of US citizens will be on prescription drugs for weight loss by 2031

What will the prevailing sentiment be about Rapamycin as a longevity drug in 2028?

Are Psychedelic Drugs Good for You?

Will a drug that didn't go through human clinical trials be approved by 2034?

Will the FDA approved a drug that claims to reduce the number of hours of sleep you need by 2040?

By 2035, will the FDA approve a drug that slows the yearly progression of Alzheimer's disease by at least 50%?

Will the drug PP405 get FDA approval?

Hassabis's Isomorphic Labs will get a drug to FDA stage 3 or better by mid 2031

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