Düsseldorf Police News

The shooter killed Charlie Kirk

The shooter is alive when this market hits 100 traders

Did it on purpose

The shooter is a member of domain Eukarya

The shooter is not a extraterrestrial alien

US citizen

Male

Will the shooter of Charlie Kirk be apprehended alive by the end of September?

Born in the United States

Current or former LDS Church (mainline Mormon) member

Firearm used was otherwise lawfully owned under federal and state law

Native English speaker (L1)

Is a registered voter

used a bolt action rifle

has at least one sibling

at least ten questions in this market resolve YES (excluding questions about other question's resolutions) (excluding N/A)

Has a Reddit, Xitter, or Facebook account

“Extremely Online” (market owner’s subjective judgment)

n/a

White

Is the same person the FBI identified as the “person of interest”

Is named Tyler Robinson

wrote reference to furry culture on bullet casing

Resided in the same state as the incident

Lives (or has lived) in Utah

had fired a weapon at least once in their life before shooting Charlie Kirk

disliked Charlie Kirk

Turns themselves in to the police / FBI

20-27 years old

JD Vance alludes to his sexual deviancy

Skinny

ectomorph body type

He killed Kirk to stop the spread of hatred.

Owns steam profile 76561198159427286

at least a quarter of the questions in this market resolve YES (excluding questions about other question's resolutions) (excluding N/A)

Hunter

Acted alone (no accomplices)

Accident please N/A

has purchased furry-related media or items

Gamer

iphone user

Motivated primarily by political ideology

Will plead guilty

has expressed positive sentiment towards furries

Furry

Unemployed

Is left wing

is/was in a sexual relationship with a transwoman

Inconsistent, incoherent, or idiosyncratic political ideology

has a furaffinity account

Owns a car

Lives (or has lived) in the Provo–Orem metropolitan area

legally acquired the gun used to kill Charlie Kirk

actually has an indecipherable ideology rooted deeply within internet culture that doesn’t clearly fall on either side.

Has/had a partner named Lance Twiggs

Is sentenced to death

Had bullets with engraved messages on them

Communicated with peers primarily through Discord

Not a virgin

Owns physical furry paraphernalia

extra charges are filed against him based on evidence discovered on his digital devices

Purchased and played Furry Shades of Gay on Steam

Strongly opposes zionism

There is anecdotal evidence that they have a KiwiFarms account

N/A (oops)

is/was in a sexual relationship with a furry transwoman

is/was in a sexual relationship with a furry

Conspired with an AI chatbot about this

Dies in prison

Has posted on r/toiletpaperusa

has used the word yiff in written communication

Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, or Transgender

Has ADHD

Any published writings (including blogs, tweets, etc.) supporting the July 2024 attempted assassination of Donald Trump

had attended any event featuring kirk prior to the one at utah valley university

6 ft tall

Kash Patel alludes to his sexual deviancy

Has at least US$5.000 of credit card debt

was prescribed psychiatric medication

has vore kink

Any published writings (including blogs, tweets, etc.) supporting Luigi Mangione

Anarchist (self-described; any "anarcho-" label counts)

Owned the firearm used

Went to furry events

cross-dresser

Purposefully waited until Kirk mentioned shootings to fire

Avowed right-leaning ideology (broadly construed: Republican, MAGA, right-libertarian, neo-Nazi, monarchist all count)

Will kill again (including suicide)

Accelerationist (any subtype)

Elon Musk alludes to his sexual deviancy

Avowed left-leaning ideology (broadly construed: Democrat, socialist, communist, Green all count)

Fan fiction author

White cis-hetero Christian man

Wrote a manifesto before the shooting

student at any university

Owns a fursuit

Transgender

Has Reddit account with 10k+ karma

Brony or a fan of My Little Pony

Radical Centrist/JREG fan

at least half of the questions in this market resolve YES (excluding questions about other question's resolutions) (excluding N/A)

Participates in this market

Has a Bluesky account

There is a broad consensus that they have a KiwiFarms account

Posted about Charlie Kirk on social media before the shooting

psychedelics user

Former or current Charlie Kirk fan

Contact with CVLT/764/similar

made online adult/sexual content (e.g. onlyfans)

Was on an FBI watchlist

Involved in Israel/Palestine activism on either side

has significant student load debt

Had diagnosed mental illness

Is right wing

Will be convicted by EOY 2026

J.K. Rowling alludes to his sexual deviancy

Femboy

Age >= 40 (on the day of the shooting)

History of illegal drug addiction

White Nationalist

Was awarded a medal or award for marksmanship at any given point in time

Dead, as of October 10th (or earlier)

History of domestic violence

Shooting was motivated by gun legislation in some way

Left-handed

Was a student at UVU

Had felony conviction previously

Current or former Calvary Chapel or other Pentecostal church member

groyper

Current or previous student at University of Utah

is Mossad

Motivated by personal grudge rather than politics (e.g. sexual jealousy or other personal-life motive)

Incel

A time traveller trying to avoid the worst

Any documented connection to O9A (Order of Nine Angles, esoteric right-accelerationst group)

Escapes carceral detention

Wanted to create pretext for violence against leftists

Has Twitter account with more than 2000 tweets

Enjoys diplomatic immunity

The shooter will read "If Anyone Builds It..." (either while on the run or in custody) and likes the book

Current or former Roman Catholic

Involved in Effective Altruism

Was motivated by the Trump Epstein cover up?

Female Ninja Type Sniper

Has a parent who drives for Uber

decel

Will get killed by law enforcement

Was a fan of Charlie Kirk

Indian national

The shooter is a professional hitman, who does not care much about politics or ideology

Used a handgun

Ex-military

Not arrested as of midnight EST 9/14

Has a PhD

Muslim

Veteran

History of alcoholism

Will share their first name with a famous video game character

Teenager

Will be apprehended at a McDonald's

50 years or older

Has a master's degree

Will be apprehended at McDonald's, like Luigi Mangione.

Is or was a computer science student

Ex law enforcement

Married

Parent

Manifold assists with his capture

Had a wikipedia page prior to 9/10/2025

Not arrested before EOY 2025

Fled the country after the shooting

Personally knew Charlie Kirk

The shooter was an AI or an android controlled by AI

Iranian national

Registered Democrat

Will be convicted by EOY 2025

Has a Manifold account

is in fact three racoons dressed in a trenchcoat

All questions in this market are resolved before 2026

Meant to hit an apple on Charlie Kirk's head

used telekinesis to correct the bullet's trajectory

Post a Tweet

Withdraw the US from the Paris Climate Agreement

Bomb Iran

Pardon a person convicted of a violent crime against police (e.g. January 6 insurrectionists)

Enrich himself & his family financially

Shake hands with Putin

Reverse Biden's executive order on AI

Play golf

Shake hands with Xi Jinping

Visit a golf course more than 10% of the days he spends in office

Start a war

Deny Climate Change

Appoint a federal judge who is rated NQ (Not Qualified) by the American Bar Association

Increase US oil production

Promote the product of a supporter from the Oval Office

Have to have the VP (or someone else) be acting president for any amount of time

Post on Social Media that the DOJ should investigate somebody who is subsequently investigated by the DOJ

Call a national emergency for a non-foreign affairs issue

Appoint a Justice to the Supreme Court

Attend at least one current state leader funeral

Threaten a world leader with nuclear attack

Question the effectiveness or safety of vaccines in general

Sign bills with a Sharpie or similar

Fire someone he nominated to a government position via social media (“fired by tweet”)

Exercise

Detain large numbers of legal immigrants as part of a program ostensibly targeting illegal immigrants

Comment Publicly on the Investment Merits of DJT Stock

Pardon someone with the last name Trump (excluding himself)

Shake hands with Donald Tusk

Visit a golf course more than 20% of the days he spends in office

Get impeached

Authorize or explicitly endorse violence against peaceful protesters

Suppress, censor, or shut down any US news media outlet (including websites)

Suggest his face should be added to mount rushmore

Pardon himself

Withdraw support for Ukraine

Have a net approval below -20% at any point

Suggests in a speech or verified written format that Cuba join as a state

Eliminate Daylight Savings Time

Trumped-Up Charges: Trump appoints an Attorney General whose office goes on to seek a criminal indictment against ex-President Joseph Biden.

Be the subject of a successful invocation of the 25th amendment

Leave office early

Advocate or support a genocide (anywhere in the world)

Order the US military to attack US citizens on US soil

End SBA direct lending

Initiate tariffs that would apply to GPUs from Taiwan

Use the powers of his office to hurt Elon Musk's competitors

Reference "Situational Awareness"

Eat a hamnhrb

Pass away

Attempt to stay in power for a third term

Order the extrajudicial killing of a (named) US citizen on US soil

Pardon SBF

Make America Great Again

Order a nuclear strike

Talk with Kim Jong Un face to face

Register with the Federal Election Commission to run for president

Die

Declassify the existence of non human intelligence.

Instruct the military to fire on protesters with live bullets, leading to at least one death

Make an executive order with the stated intention of slowing down AI development

Ban TikTok

Withdraw the US from NATO

Signs a bill that admits a new state to the Union.

Order the extrajudicial killing of any federal or state elected official

Completely withdraw United States Forces Korea

Here's Johnny: Trump again appoints John Bolton to an official position in his administration.

Cry on camera

Be in some type of official captivity at any level before the end of the planned term in 2029

Have over +20 net approval according to 538, at any point

Direct the killing of a political opponent

Be removed via the 25th Amendment

Buy Greenland

Do another Home Alone cameo

Soccer player

Chaplain

Federal employees

AI Safety Researchers

Kindergarten Teachers

Dancer

AI Resistance Leader

Judges

Nurse

Politicians

Gynecologist

The job of judging which propositions are true (analytic philosopher).

Firefighter

Novelist

Surgeon (autonomous)

Police officer

Project Manager

Teachers

Barbers

Lawyers

Dentists

Therapists

Chefs

Game developer

social media content creators

Fluffer

Construction workers

Computer programmers

Soldier

Personal trainers

Fast Food Cook

Doctors

Prompt engineers

Fast Food Cashier

Bus drivers

Robot designers / engineers

Photographer

15-Minute Cities

Universal Basic Income (UBI)

Decolonization

Multipolarity / Multipolar World

Transhumanism

Nuance

Academic freedom

Stakeholder-Capitalism

Techno-optimist

Consent-Based Policing / Peelian Principles

Love

Civilian Casualties / Protection of Civilians Mandate

Investigative journalism

Direct democracy

Peacebuilding

AI Alignment

Human rights

Freedom

Experience

Relationship Anarchy

RV events

Police as crime solvers

Prison as corrective

Libertarian free will

LessWrong is a source of pure wisdom

Working gives us meaning.

IQ as an objective measure of general intelligence

Neoliberalism

Merit/desert

Proof School

Having kids

LSD unlocks a deeper consciousness

Rule a Country (discord server)

Religion

The attitude that many of us tend to take way too many things way too seriously (serious submission)

Peer reviewed studies - lots of junk routinely passes peer review, replication/post publication peer review are much better indicators of quality of research

Quantum computing

Alcohol is needed for life to be fun

The meaning of life

Death

Cryptocurrency

Pessimism about the future of the world

Founders/Entrepreneurs

meta-irony

On Manifold, mana inflation

Humans being innately (as opposed to instrumentally) more important than other animals

Free will in general

An apple a day

Clinical Psychology

Nihilism

meta-submissions

Children as planetary burden

focus on X-risks within EA as opposed to current issues

Nuclear fusion as the energy of the future

Anti-capitalism

Ockham’s razor

Free Trade

Deontological ethics

Analytic philosophy

Continental philosophy

Utilitarianism

Modernity

Capitalism

Freedom

The analytic-synthetic distinction

Veganism

Technological progress as a good thing

Moral relativism

Classical literature

Therapy

Being in shape

Rationality

Effective Altruism

Artificial Intelligence

Longevity/immortality

AI Doomerism

Politics

Free Speech

The opinion that neoliberalism is overrated

The anti- AI art movement

Extended Travelling (as opposed to <4 week vacation)

Donald Trump being the worst thing for the US and the world

Enlightenment

Taking things seriously

Unconditional love

Reason

Environmentalism for its own sake (rather than for humans' sake)

Psychedelics

Atheism

Russia = Evil, Ukraine = Good

Privacy

Living

Prediction markets

democracy

Biodiversity

Virtue

"designate cartels as Foreign Terrorist Organizations"

empower the President to impose reciprocal tariffs

"lower taxes"

"defend your Second Amendment right to keep and bear arms"

"increase penalties for assaults on law enforcement"

"open Civil Rights investigations into any school district that has engaged in race-based discrimination"

"order the Department of Defense to inflict maximum damage on cartel leadership and operations"

"end catch-and-release, restore Remain in Mexico, and eliminate asylum fraud"

"ask Congress to ensure that drug smugglers and traffickers can receive the Death Penalty"

"reward states and school districts that abolish teacher tenure for grades K-12 and adopt Merit Pay"

"REVOKE China’s Most Favored Nation trade status"

"stop all COVID mandates"

"keep men out of women’s sports"

"deputize the National Guard and local law enforcement to assist with rapidly removing illegal alien gang members and criminals"

"more jobs for American workers"

"deliver a merit-based immigration system that protects American labor and promotes American values"

"choke off [cartels'] access to the global financial system"

"get Biden’s radical left ideology out of our military and rehire every patriot who was unjustly fired"

"cut federal funding for any school or program pushing Critical Race Theory or gender ideology on our children"

"strengthen qualified immunity and other protections for police officers"

"uphold your religious liberty, including the Constitutional right to pray in public schools"

"implement a 4-year national reshoring plan so that the United States no longer needs to rely on China for essential medical and national security goods"

"put violent offenders and career criminals behind bars"

"build a state-of-the-art next-generation missile defense shield"

"surge federal prosecutors and the National Guard into high-crime communities"

"adopt a Parental Bill of Rights"

"banning taxpayer funds from being used to categorize lawful speech for purposes of illicit censorship"

"banning federal agencies from censoring speech"

"bigger paychecks"

"a ban on members of Congress trading stocks with insider information"

"enacting landmark legislation to drastically limit the ability of big social media platforms to restrict free speech"

"cut the number of school administrators"

"stopping federal funding for all non-profits and academic programs engaged in censorship"

declassify the 'Epstein files'

"pass a bold range of critical election integrity measures that include banning unsecure drop boxes and ballot harvesting"

"deliver record funding to hire and retrain police officers"

"veto the sinister effort to weaponize civics education"

"increase fairness through price transparency"

"passing a digital bill of rights"

"get the full cooperation of neighboring governments to dismantle the cartels, or else expose every bribe and kickback that allows these criminal networks to preserve their brutal reign"

"continue to nominate highly qualified prosecutors, judges, and justices who believe in enforcing the law, not their own political agenda"

"create a credentialing body to certify teachers who embrace patriotic values"

"protect Medicare, Social Security, and patients with pre-existing conditions"

"reduce the soaring price of gasoline, diesel and natural gas"

"firing any federal bureaucrat who has engaged in censoring the lawful speech of American citizens"

"ban private money from pouring into local election offices"

"end surprise medical billing"

"ban Chinese ownership of all critical infrastructure in the United States"

"reform our election laws to verify the identity and eligibility of all voters"

"reduce the cost of prescription drugs and health insurance premiums"

"impose a total naval embargo on cartels"

"a permanent ban on taxpayer funding of campaigns"

"a lifetime ban on lobbying by former members of Congress and cabinet members"

"implement the direct election of school principals by the parents"

"a constitutional amendment to impose term limits on members of Congress"

Any Trump family member

Himself

Any cryptocurrency executives or blockchain industry figures

Any law enforcement officials accused of police brutality or misconduct

Any members of his second term cabinet

Any cryptocurrency or tech industry founders

Any member of the armed forces for conduct reported as a potential war crime

Any members of Trump's legal team or personal attorneys

Any state-level Republican officials

Any anti-abortion activists or religious conservative figures

Sam Bankman-Fried

Edward Snowden

Any sitting Democratic Governor, Senator, or Congressman

Diddy

Ghislaine Maxwell

Associate/informant provides suspect’s name

Security/doorbell camera footage leading to identification

DNA match from evidence

Suspect voluntarily surrenders

Social media post or online confession leads to identification

Ballistics trace links weapon to suspect

Fingerprint match from evidence

Public tip to police (hotline/Crimestoppers)

Facial recognition match

Cellphone location/records analysis identifies suspect

International cooperation

Automated license plate reader or traffic camera hit

Identified while seeking medical treatment

Undercover operation or sting identifies suspect

Identified during a routine traffic stop or unrelated arrest

Golden Age

Defund the police

Fuck (or variant)

Fish

Jesus Christ

Cocaine

Newscum

Third term

Massive fraud

Ghislaine

Election interference

Pussy (or variant)

World War 3 or WW3 (or any other variant)

Cock (or variant)

Shit (or variant)

Feckless

Be cool

Shithole (or variant)

Nuclear fusion

25th Amendment (or twenty fifth amendment or any other variant)

Failed state

Drake

“Sabrina” or “Carpenter”

Jew hater or Jew haters

Meth

Fifth Column (or any variation)

Divorce

Trans agenda

Penis (or variant)

Eswatini

Peace president

Moist

Delve

Republic of America

Day care workers

strip dancer

Police

Public company CEO

Plumbers

Airline Pilot

Soldier

Burglary

hairdresser

Bus driver

Academic Reseacher

Software Engineer

Super-forcaster

supermarket cashier

Palm Reader

taxi driver

Translator

Uber Driver

Customer Service Chat Agents

Data Entry Clerks

Job Displacement

AI in non-warfare violence (policing, organized crime, etc.)

Other

Surveillance and Privacy

AI in Warfare

Ethical AI Development

only four wheels on main vehicle

smaller vehicle that comes with it

Includes a flying machine (helicopter, plane, space ship, etc) as the main or a side vehicle

Police or Fire department theme

has an Extendable ladder as a feature

Predominant color is Non-Green (like 2020, 2015 or 2005) (not counting white as a color)

Main vehicle is construction related (like 2017)

Main vehicle has 6 or more tires

says GASOLINE on one of the vehicles