Düsseldorf Police News

The shooter is alive when this market hits 100 traders

20-27 years old

Has a Reddit, Xitter, or Facebook account

US citizen

Male

Will the shooter of Charlie Kirk be apprehended alive by the end of September?

The shooter killed Charlie Kirk

White

Born in the United States

Lives (or has lived) in Utah

Native English speaker (L1)

used a bolt action rifle

has at least one sibling

at least ten questions in this market resolve YES (excluding questions about other question's resolutions) (excluding N/A)

Is the same person the FBI identified as the “person of interest”

had fired a weapon at least once in their life before shooting Charlie Kirk

disliked Charlie Kirk

Is named Tyler Robinson

“Extremely Online” (market owner’s subjective judgment)

The shooter is a member of domain Eukarya

Resided in the same state as the incident

Firearm used was otherwise lawfully owned under federal and state law

Is a registered voter

Did it on purpose

Skinny

Gamer

wrote reference to furry culture on bullet casing

The shooter is not a extraterrestrial alien

Motivated primarily by political ideology

ectomorph body type

Had bullets with engraved messages on them

He killed Kirk to stop the spread of hatred.

Acted alone (no accomplices)

Current or former LDS Church (mainline Mormon) member

Is left wing

Owns steam profile 76561198159427286

at least a quarter of the questions in this market resolve YES (excluding questions about other question's resolutions) (excluding N/A)

has expressed positive sentiment towards furries

Turns themselves in to the police / FBI

Hunter

Accident please N/A

has purchased furry-related media or items

Will plead guilty

Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, or Transgender

Avowed left-leaning ideology (broadly construed: Democrat, socialist, communist, Green all count)

Unemployed

iphone user

Has/had a partner named Lance Twiggs

is/was in a sexual relationship with a transwoman

Not a virgin

Purchased and played Furry Shades of Gay on Steam

Owns a car

Lives (or has lived) in the Provo–Orem metropolitan area

legally acquired the gun used to kill Charlie Kirk

has a furaffinity account

actually has an indecipherable ideology rooted deeply within internet culture that doesn’t clearly fall on either side.

Furry

Owns physical furry paraphernalia

Communicated with peers primarily through Discord

extra charges are filed against him based on evidence discovered on his digital devices

Strongly opposes zionism

Inconsistent, incoherent, or idiosyncratic political ideology

is/was in a sexual relationship with a furry transwoman

n/a

There is anecdotal evidence that they have a KiwiFarms account

Dies in prison

Has posted on r/toiletpaperusa

has used the word yiff in written communication

Conspired with an AI chatbot about this

Purposefully waited until Kirk mentioned shootings to fire

Any published writings (including blogs, tweets, etc.) supporting the July 2024 attempted assassination of Donald Trump

Is sentenced to death

had attended any event featuring kirk prior to the one at utah valley university

Kash Patel alludes to his sexual deviancy

Has at least US$5.000 of credit card debt

was prescribed psychiatric medication

has vore kink

Anarchist (self-described; any "anarcho-" label counts)

Went to furry events

cross-dresser

Will kill again (including suicide)

Wrote a manifesto before the shooting

JD Vance alludes to his sexual deviancy

Has a Bluesky account

Elon Musk alludes to his sexual deviancy

White cis-hetero Christian man

Any published writings (including blogs, tweets, etc.) supporting Luigi Mangione

student at any university

Owns a fursuit

is/was in a sexual relationship with a furry

Posted about Charlie Kirk on social media before the shooting

Brony or a fan of My Little Pony

Radical Centrist/JREG fan

Will be convicted by EOY 2025

Has Reddit account with 10k+ karma

Former or current Charlie Kirk fan

Has ADHD

psychedelics user

at least half of the questions in this market resolve YES (excluding questions about other question's resolutions) (excluding N/A)

Contact with CVLT/764/similar

made online adult/sexual content (e.g. onlyfans)

There is a broad consensus that they have a KiwiFarms account

Was on an FBI watchlist

6 ft tall

Had diagnosed mental illness

Will be convicted by EOY 2026

J.K. Rowling alludes to his sexual deviancy

Transgender

Involved in Israel/Palestine activism on either side

Incel

Fan fiction author

Femboy

History of illegal drug addiction

Escapes carceral detention

Was awarded a medal or award for marksmanship at any given point in time

History of domestic violence

has significant student load debt

Owned the firearm used

Any documented connection to O9A (Order of Nine Angles, esoteric right-accelerationst group)

Shooting was motivated by gun legislation in some way

Avowed right-leaning ideology (broadly construed: Republican, MAGA, right-libertarian, neo-Nazi, monarchist all count)

Left-handed

Motivated by personal grudge rather than politics (e.g. sexual jealousy or other personal-life motive)

All questions in this market are resolved before 2026

Had felony conviction previously

Current or former Calvary Chapel or other Pentecostal church member

groyper

Is right wing

Current or previous student at University of Utah

is Mossad

Was a student at UVU

Dead, as of October 10th (or earlier)

Accelerationist (any subtype)

Wanted to create pretext for violence against leftists

Has Twitter account with more than 2000 tweets

White Nationalist

The shooter will read "If Anyone Builds It..." (either while on the run or in custody) and likes the book

Current or former Roman Catholic

Involved in Effective Altruism

Was motivated by the Trump Epstein cover up?

Has a parent who drives for Uber

decel

Will get killed by law enforcement

Was a fan of Charlie Kirk

The shooter is a professional hitman, who does not care much about politics or ideology

Age >= 40 (on the day of the shooting)

Used a handgun

Ex-military

Has a PhD

Has a Manifold account

Muslim

Veteran

History of alcoholism

A time traveller trying to avoid the worst

Will share their first name with a famous video game character

Participates in this market

Teenager

Has a master's degree

Will be apprehended at McDonald's, like Luigi Mangione.

Female Ninja Type Sniper

Is or was a computer science student

is in fact three racoons dressed in a trenchcoat

Ex law enforcement

Married

Parent

Manifold assists with his capture

Meant to hit an apple on Charlie Kirk's head

Had a wikipedia page prior to 9/10/2025

Not arrested before EOY 2025

Fled the country after the shooting

Personally knew Charlie Kirk

Enjoys diplomatic immunity

Indian national

The shooter was an AI or an android controlled by AI

Iranian national

Registered Democrat

used telekinesis to correct the bullet's trajectory

The shooter is a member of domain Bacteria

Not arrested as of midnight EST 9/14

Will be apprehended at a McDonald's

YES

15-Minute Cities

Universal Basic Income (UBI)

Decolonization

Multipolarity / Multipolar World

Transhumanism

Nuance

Academic freedom

Stakeholder-Capitalism

Techno-optimist

Consent-Based Policing / Peelian Principles

Love

Civilian Casualties / Protection of Civilians Mandate

Investigative journalism

Direct democracy

Peacebuilding

AI Alignment

Human rights

Freedom

Experience

Relationship Anarchy

RV events

Police as crime solvers

Prison as corrective

Libertarian free will

Working gives us meaning.

LessWrong is a source of pure wisdom

IQ as an objective measure of general intelligence

Merit/desert

Neoliberalism

Proof School

Having kids

LSD unlocks a deeper consciousness

The meaning of life

Rule a Country (discord server)

Religion

The attitude that many of us tend to take way too many things way too seriously (serious submission)

Peer reviewed studies - lots of junk routinely passes peer review, replication/post publication peer review are much better indicators of quality of research

Quantum computing

Death

Alcohol is needed for life to be fun

meta-irony

Cryptocurrency

Pessimism about the future of the world

Founders/Entrepreneurs

On Manifold, mana inflation

Free will in general

Humans being innately (as opposed to instrumentally) more important than other animals

An apple a day

Clinical Psychology

Nihilism

meta-submissions

Children as planetary burden

focus on X-risks within EA as opposed to current issues

Nuclear fusion as the energy of the future

Anti-capitalism

Ockham’s razor

Free Trade

Deontological ethics

Analytic philosophy

Continental philosophy

Utilitarianism

Modernity

Capitalism

Freedom

The analytic-synthetic distinction

Veganism

Technological progress as a good thing

Moral relativism

Classical literature

Therapy

Being in shape

Rationality

Effective Altruism

Artificial Intelligence

Longevity/immortality

AI Doomerism

Politics

Free Speech

The opinion that neoliberalism is overrated

The anti- AI art movement

Extended Travelling (as opposed to <4 week vacation)

Donald Trump being the worst thing for the US and the world

Enlightenment

Taking things seriously

Unconditional love

Reason

Environmentalism for its own sake (rather than for humans' sake)

Psychedelics

Atheism

Russia = Evil, Ukraine = Good

Privacy

Living

Prediction markets

democracy

Biodiversity

Virtue

"designate cartels as Foreign Terrorist Organizations"

"defend your Second Amendment right to keep and bear arms"

"end catch-and-release, restore Remain in Mexico, and eliminate asylum fraud"

empower the President to impose reciprocal tariffs

"lower taxes"

"deputize the National Guard and local law enforcement to assist with rapidly removing illegal alien gang members and criminals"

"keep men out of women’s sports"

"increase penalties for assaults on law enforcement"

"open Civil Rights investigations into any school district that has engaged in race-based discrimination"

"order the Department of Defense to inflict maximum damage on cartel leadership and operations"

"reward states and school districts that abolish teacher tenure for grades K-12 and adopt Merit Pay"

"REVOKE China’s Most Favored Nation trade status"

"stop all COVID mandates"

"more jobs for American workers"

"deliver a merit-based immigration system that protects American labor and promotes American values"

"cut the number of school administrators"

"choke off [cartels'] access to the global financial system"

"cut federal funding for any school or program pushing Critical Race Theory or gender ideology on our children"

"ask Congress to ensure that drug smugglers and traffickers can receive the Death Penalty"

"strengthen qualified immunity and other protections for police officers"

"uphold your religious liberty, including the Constitutional right to pray in public schools"

"bigger paychecks"

"implement a 4-year national reshoring plan so that the United States no longer needs to rely on China for essential medical and national security goods"

"put violent offenders and career criminals behind bars"

"build a state-of-the-art next-generation missile defense shield"

"surge federal prosecutors and the National Guard into high-crime communities"

"adopt a Parental Bill of Rights"

"banning taxpayer funds from being used to categorize lawful speech for purposes of illicit censorship"

"banning federal agencies from censoring speech"

"passing a digital bill of rights"

"enacting landmark legislation to drastically limit the ability of big social media platforms to restrict free speech"

declassify the 'Epstein files'

"stopping federal funding for all non-profits and academic programs engaged in censorship"

"create a credentialing body to certify teachers who embrace patriotic values"

"pass a bold range of critical election integrity measures that include banning unsecure drop boxes and ballot harvesting"

"deliver record funding to hire and retrain police officers"

"veto the sinister effort to weaponize civics education"

"increase fairness through price transparency"

"reduce the soaring price of gasoline, diesel and natural gas"

"get the full cooperation of neighboring governments to dismantle the cartels, or else expose every bribe and kickback that allows these criminal networks to preserve their brutal reign"

"continue to nominate highly qualified prosecutors, judges, and justices who believe in enforcing the law, not their own political agenda"

"protect Medicare, Social Security, and patients with pre-existing conditions"

"reduce the cost of prescription drugs and health insurance premiums"

"firing any federal bureaucrat who has engaged in censoring the lawful speech of American citizens"

"ban private money from pouring into local election offices"

"get Biden’s radical left ideology out of our military and rehire every patriot who was unjustly fired"

"a ban on members of Congress trading stocks with insider information"

"end surprise medical billing"

"ban Chinese ownership of all critical infrastructure in the United States"

"reform our election laws to verify the identity and eligibility of all voters"

"impose a total naval embargo on cartels"

"a permanent ban on taxpayer funding of campaigns"

"a lifetime ban on lobbying by former members of Congress and cabinet members"

"implement the direct election of school principals by the parents"

"a constitutional amendment to impose term limits on members of Congress"

Associate/informant provides suspect’s name

Security/doorbell camera footage leading to identification

DNA match from evidence

Suspect voluntarily surrenders

Social media post or online confession leads to identification

Ballistics trace links weapon to suspect

Fingerprint match from evidence

Public tip to police (hotline/Crimestoppers)

Facial recognition match

Cellphone location/records analysis identifies suspect

International cooperation

Automated license plate reader or traffic camera hit

Identified while seeking medical treatment

Identified during a routine traffic stop or unrelated arrest

Undercover operation or sting identifies suspect

Any law enforcement officials accused of police brutality or misconduct

Any cryptocurrency executives or blockchain industry figures

Any members of his second term cabinet

Edward Snowden

Any cryptocurrency or tech industry founders

Any member of the armed forces for conduct reported as a potential war crime

Any members of Trump's legal team or personal attorneys

Any Trump family member

Himself

Derek Chauvin

Any state-level Republican officials

Any anti-abortion activists or religious conservative figures

Any sitting Democratic Governor, Senator, or Congressman

Diddy

Sam Bankman-Fried

Day care workers

strip dancer

Police

Public company CEO

Plumbers

Airline Pilot

Soldier

Burglary

hairdresser

Bus driver

Academic Reseacher

Software Engineer

Super-forcaster

supermarket cashier

Palm Reader

taxi driver

Translator

Uber Driver

Customer Service Chat Agents

Call center workers

CGT union officially joins and supports the movement

Over 40 simultaneous protest locations on September 10, 2025

Over 500 arrests nationwide on September 10, 2025

FO union officially joins and supports the movement

At least 6 oil refineries or fuel depots blockaded simultaneously

Over 20% of gas stations face fuel shortages during the movement

RATP closes 5+ metro lines for a full day

CFDT union officially joins and supports the movement

Solidaires union officially joins and supports the movement

UNEF calls for university blockades nationwide

Over 10 universities blocked on a single day

Government invokes Article 49.3 on a budget bill amid the movement

National Assembly dissolved and snap legislative elections called

Conseil d'Etat suspends a protest-related policing measure

French government announces major budget policy change in response to this movement

An RN representative supports the movement

A cabinet minister resigns citing the protests

SNCF rail traffic falls below 20% of normal on at least one day during the movement

President announces a national referendum proposal in response to the movement

A curfew is imposed in at least one department

The movement will last more than 2 months (100,000 people manifesting nationwide after November 10)

A state of emergency is declared in response to the movement

Macron resigns due to the protests

International solidarity protests in over 10 foreign cities

Over 100,000 people participate in protests in Paris on September 10, 2025

Over 500,000 people protest nationwide on September 10, 2025

Over 200 injured nationwide on September 10, 2025

Both National Guardsmen die

Trump takes control of the DC police again

Trump invokes the Insurrection Act in DC

Another National Guardsman is killed in a target attack

A civilian is killed by a National Guardsman

Trump declares DC under Martial Law

Any Democratic lawmaker is charged or arrested in relation to the attack

The attack is confirmed to be politically motivated

None

Any virus from crack/pirated games

Spyware

Police virus

A virus that disguises itself as real media (like AccuWeather.exe, HBOFamily.exe or ESPN.exe)

I get less than 6 hours of sleep on any day between 10-15 Dec

Everything is fine, nothing is ruined

The event goes way over budget

The air purifiers don't arrive in time

Speaker or meetup organiser no-shows

Technical issues with Swapcard

Less than 250 of the 300 registered attendees show up

The hoodies don't arrive in time

Food is incorrectly labelled (allergens/not vegan)