Düsseldorf Police News

US citizen

Male

The shooter killed Charlie Kirk

White

The shooter is alive when this market hits 100 traders

Did it on purpose

Has a Reddit, Xitter, or Facebook account

The shooter is a member of domain Eukarya

The shooter is not a extraterrestrial alien

Will the shooter of Charlie Kirk be apprehended alive by the end of September?

Born in the United States

Lives (or has lived) in Utah

Current or former LDS Church (mainline Mormon) member

Firearm used was otherwise lawfully owned under federal and state law

Native English speaker (L1)

Is a registered voter

20-27 years old

used a bolt action rifle

has at least one sibling

at least ten questions in this market resolve YES (excluding questions about other question's resolutions) (excluding N/A)

Is the same person the FBI identified as the “person of interest”

“Extremely Online” (market owner’s subjective judgment)

n/a

Skinny

Is named Tyler Robinson

wrote reference to furry culture on bullet casing

Resided in the same state as the incident

ectomorph body type

had fired a weapon at least once in their life before shooting Charlie Kirk

disliked Charlie Kirk

Acted alone (no accomplices)

Turns themselves in to the police / FBI

He killed Kirk to stop the spread of hatred.

Owns steam profile 76561198159427286

at least a quarter of the questions in this market resolve YES (excluding questions about other question's resolutions) (excluding N/A)

has expressed positive sentiment towards furries

Had bullets with engraved messages on them

Hunter

Accident please N/A

has purchased furry-related media or items

Gamer

Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, or Transgender

Unemployed

iphone user

Motivated primarily by political ideology

is/was in a sexual relationship with a transwoman

Will plead guilty

Not a virgin

Is left wing

has a furaffinity account

Owns a car

Lives (or has lived) in the Provo–Orem metropolitan area

legally acquired the gun used to kill Charlie Kirk

Inconsistent, incoherent, or idiosyncratic political ideology

Has/had a partner named Lance Twiggs

Furry

actually has an indecipherable ideology rooted deeply within internet culture that doesn’t clearly fall on either side.

Communicated with peers primarily through Discord

Owns physical furry paraphernalia

extra charges are filed against him based on evidence discovered on his digital devices

Purchased and played Furry Shades of Gay on Steam

Strongly opposes zionism

Is sentenced to death

There is anecdotal evidence that they have a KiwiFarms account

N/A (oops)

is/was in a sexual relationship with a furry

Dies in prison

Has posted on r/toiletpaperusa

has used the word yiff in written communication

Conspired with an AI chatbot about this

Will kill again (including suicide)

Has ADHD

is/was in a sexual relationship with a furry transwoman

Any published writings (including blogs, tweets, etc.) supporting the July 2024 attempted assassination of Donald Trump

had attended any event featuring kirk prior to the one at utah valley university

6 ft tall

Kash Patel alludes to his sexual deviancy

Has at least US$5.000 of credit card debt

was prescribed psychiatric medication

has vore kink

Anarchist (self-described; any "anarcho-" label counts)

Owned the firearm used

Went to furry events

cross-dresser

All questions in this market are resolved before 2026

Purposefully waited until Kirk mentioned shootings to fire

JD Vance alludes to his sexual deviancy

Elon Musk alludes to his sexual deviancy

Avowed left-leaning ideology (broadly construed: Democrat, socialist, communist, Green all count)

White cis-hetero Christian man

Any published writings (including blogs, tweets, etc.) supporting Luigi Mangione

Participates in this market

student at any university

Owns a fursuit

Brony or a fan of My Little Pony

Radical Centrist/JREG fan

Avowed right-leaning ideology (broadly construed: Republican, MAGA, right-libertarian, neo-Nazi, monarchist all count)

Wrote a manifesto before the shooting

Has Reddit account with 10k+ karma

Has a Bluesky account

There is a broad consensus that they have a KiwiFarms account

Posted about Charlie Kirk on social media before the shooting

psychedelics user

at least half of the questions in this market resolve YES (excluding questions about other question's resolutions) (excluding N/A)

Contact with CVLT/764/similar

made online adult/sexual content (e.g. onlyfans)

Was on an FBI watchlist

Had diagnosed mental illness

Former or current Charlie Kirk fan

Will be convicted by EOY 2026

J.K. Rowling alludes to his sexual deviancy

Involved in Israel/Palestine activism on either side

Fan fiction author

Femboy

History of illegal drug addiction

Escapes carceral detention

Was awarded a medal or award for marksmanship at any given point in time

History of domestic violence

Is right wing

has significant student load debt

Shooting was motivated by gun legislation in some way

Transgender

groyper

Left-handed

Had felony conviction previously

Current or former Calvary Chapel or other Pentecostal church member

Current or previous student at University of Utah

is Mossad

Was a student at UVU

Dead, as of October 10th (or earlier)

Motivated by personal grudge rather than politics (e.g. sexual jealousy or other personal-life motive)

Incel

Any documented connection to O9A (Order of Nine Angles, esoteric right-accelerationst group)

Accelerationist (any subtype)

Wanted to create pretext for violence against leftists

A time traveller trying to avoid the worst

Has Twitter account with more than 2000 tweets

White Nationalist

The shooter will read "If Anyone Builds It..." (either while on the run or in custody) and likes the book

Current or former Roman Catholic

Involved in Effective Altruism

Was motivated by the Trump Epstein cover up?

Has a parent who drives for Uber

decel

Will get killed by law enforcement

Was a fan of Charlie Kirk

The shooter is a professional hitman, who does not care much about politics or ideology

Age >= 40 (on the day of the shooting)

Used a handgun

Ex-military

Not arrested as of midnight EST 9/14

Has a PhD

Has a Manifold account

Muslim

Veteran

History of alcoholism

Will share their first name with a famous video game character

Teenager

50 years or older

Has a master's degree

Will be apprehended at McDonald's, like Luigi Mangione.

Female Ninja Type Sniper

Is or was a computer science student

Ex law enforcement

Married

Parent

Manifold assists with his capture

Had a wikipedia page prior to 9/10/2025

Not arrested before EOY 2025

Fled the country after the shooting

Personally knew Charlie Kirk

Enjoys diplomatic immunity

Indian national

The shooter was an AI or an android controlled by AI

Iranian national

Registered Democrat

Will be convicted by EOY 2025

Will be apprehended at a McDonald's

is in fact three racoons dressed in a trenchcoat

Meant to hit an apple on Charlie Kirk's head

used telekinesis to correct the bullet's trajectory

Post a Tweet

Withdraw the US from the Paris Climate Agreement

Bomb Iran

Pardon a person convicted of a violent crime against police (e.g. January 6 insurrectionists)

Enrich himself & his family financially

Reverse Biden's executive order on AI

Play golf

Shake hands with Xi Jinping

Deny Climate Change

Visit a golf course more than 10% of the days he spends in office

Promote the product of a supporter from the Oval Office

Increase US oil production

Have to have the VP (or someone else) be acting president for any amount of time

Fire someone he nominated to a government position via social media (“fired by tweet”)

Call a national emergency for a non-foreign affairs issue

Post on Social Media that the DOJ should investigate somebody who is subsequently investigated by the DOJ

Shake hands with Putin

Attend at least one current state leader funeral

Question the effectiveness or safety of vaccines in general

Sign bills with a Sharpie or similar

Threaten a world leader with nuclear attack

Shake hands with Donald Tusk

Detain large numbers of legal immigrants as part of a program ostensibly targeting illegal immigrants

Exercise

Comment Publicly on the Investment Merits of DJT Stock

Pardon someone with the last name Trump (excluding himself)

Visit a golf course more than 20% of the days he spends in office

Authorize or explicitly endorse violence against peaceful protesters

Withdraw support for Ukraine

Get impeached

Suppress, censor, or shut down any US news media outlet (including websites)

Have a net approval below -20% at any point

Appoint a federal judge who is rated NQ (Not Qualified) by the American Bar Association

Appoint a Justice to the Supreme Court

Suggest his face should be added to mount rushmore

Pardon himself

Suggests in a speech or verified written format that Cuba join as a state

Eliminate Daylight Savings Time

Trumped-Up Charges: Trump appoints an Attorney General whose office goes on to seek a criminal indictment against ex-President Joseph Biden.

Leave office early

Be the subject of a successful invocation of the 25th amendment

Reference "Situational Awareness"

Start a war

Order the US military to attack US citizens on US soil

End SBA direct lending

Advocate or support a genocide (anywhere in the world)

Initiate tariffs that would apply to GPUs from Taiwan

Eat a hamnhrb

Use the powers of his office to hurt Elon Musk's competitors

Pass away

Die

Order the extrajudicial killing of a (named) US citizen on US soil

Attempt to stay in power for a third term

Pardon SBF

Make America Great Again

Register with the Federal Election Commission to run for president

Declassify the existence of non human intelligence.

Instruct the military to fire on protesters with live bullets, leading to at least one death

Make an executive order with the stated intention of slowing down AI development

Signs a bill that admits a new state to the Union.

Talk with Kim Jong Un face to face

Withdraw the US from NATO

Ban TikTok

Here's Johnny: Trump again appoints John Bolton to an official position in his administration.

Order the extrajudicial killing of any federal or state elected official

Completely withdraw United States Forces Korea

Cry on camera

Be in some type of official captivity at any level before the end of the planned term in 2029

Direct the killing of a political opponent

Order a nuclear strike

Do another Home Alone cameo

Be removed via the 25th Amendment

Have over +20 net approval according to 538, at any point

Buy Greenland

Soccer player

Chaplain

Federal employees

AI Safety Researchers

Kindergarten Teachers

Dancer

AI Resistance Leader

Judges

Nurse

Politicians

Gynecologist

The job of judging which propositions are true (analytic philosopher).

Firefighter

Novelist

Surgeon (autonomous)

Police officer

Project Manager

Teachers

Barbers

Lawyers

Dentists

Therapists

Chefs

Game developer

social media content creators

Fluffer

Construction workers

Computer programmers

Soldier

Personal trainers

Fast Food Cook

Doctors

Prompt engineers

Fast Food Cashier

Bus drivers

Robot designers / engineers

Photographer

15-Minute Cities

Universal Basic Income (UBI)

Decolonization

Multipolarity / Multipolar World

Transhumanism

Nuance

Academic freedom

Stakeholder-Capitalism

Techno-optimist

Consent-Based Policing / Peelian Principles

Love

Civilian Casualties / Protection of Civilians Mandate

Investigative journalism

Direct democracy

Peacebuilding

AI Alignment

Human rights

Freedom

Experience

Relationship Anarchy

RV events

Police as crime solvers

Prison as corrective

Libertarian free will

Working gives us meaning.

LessWrong is a source of pure wisdom

IQ as an objective measure of general intelligence

Merit/desert

Neoliberalism

Proof School

Having kids

LSD unlocks a deeper consciousness

Rule a Country (discord server)

The meaning of life

Religion

The attitude that many of us tend to take way too many things way too seriously (serious submission)

Peer reviewed studies - lots of junk routinely passes peer review, replication/post publication peer review are much better indicators of quality of research

Quantum computing

Alcohol is needed for life to be fun

Death

Cryptocurrency

Pessimism about the future of the world

Founders/Entrepreneurs

meta-irony

On Manifold, mana inflation

Humans being innately (as opposed to instrumentally) more important than other animals

Free will in general

An apple a day

Clinical Psychology

Nihilism

meta-submissions

Children as planetary burden

focus on X-risks within EA as opposed to current issues

Nuclear fusion as the energy of the future

Anti-capitalism

Ockham’s razor

Free Trade

Deontological ethics

Analytic philosophy

Continental philosophy

Utilitarianism

Modernity

Capitalism

Freedom

The analytic-synthetic distinction

Veganism

Technological progress as a good thing

Moral relativism

Classical literature

Therapy

Being in shape

Rationality

Effective Altruism

Artificial Intelligence

Longevity/immortality

AI Doomerism

Politics

Free Speech

The opinion that neoliberalism is overrated

The anti- AI art movement

Extended Travelling (as opposed to <4 week vacation)

Donald Trump being the worst thing for the US and the world

Enlightenment

Taking things seriously

Unconditional love

Reason

Environmentalism for its own sake (rather than for humans' sake)

Psychedelics

Atheism

Russia = Evil, Ukraine = Good

Privacy

Living

Prediction markets

democracy

Biodiversity

Virtue

"designate cartels as Foreign Terrorist Organizations"

empower the President to impose reciprocal tariffs

"lower taxes"

"defend your Second Amendment right to keep and bear arms"

"increase penalties for assaults on law enforcement"

"open Civil Rights investigations into any school district that has engaged in race-based discrimination"

"order the Department of Defense to inflict maximum damage on cartel leadership and operations"

"end catch-and-release, restore Remain in Mexico, and eliminate asylum fraud"

"ask Congress to ensure that drug smugglers and traffickers can receive the Death Penalty"

"reward states and school districts that abolish teacher tenure for grades K-12 and adopt Merit Pay"

"REVOKE China’s Most Favored Nation trade status"

"stop all COVID mandates"

"keep men out of women’s sports"

"deputize the National Guard and local law enforcement to assist with rapidly removing illegal alien gang members and criminals"

"more jobs for American workers"

"deliver a merit-based immigration system that protects American labor and promotes American values"

"choke off [cartels'] access to the global financial system"

"get Biden’s radical left ideology out of our military and rehire every patriot who was unjustly fired"

"cut federal funding for any school or program pushing Critical Race Theory or gender ideology on our children"

"strengthen qualified immunity and other protections for police officers"

"uphold your religious liberty, including the Constitutional right to pray in public schools"

"bigger paychecks"

"implement a 4-year national reshoring plan so that the United States no longer needs to rely on China for essential medical and national security goods"

"put violent offenders and career criminals behind bars"

"build a state-of-the-art next-generation missile defense shield"

"surge federal prosecutors and the National Guard into high-crime communities"

"adopt a Parental Bill of Rights"

"banning taxpayer funds from being used to categorize lawful speech for purposes of illicit censorship"

"banning federal agencies from censoring speech"

"a ban on members of Congress trading stocks with insider information"

"enacting landmark legislation to drastically limit the ability of big social media platforms to restrict free speech"

"cut the number of school administrators"

"stopping federal funding for all non-profits and academic programs engaged in censorship"

declassify the 'Epstein files'

"pass a bold range of critical election integrity measures that include banning unsecure drop boxes and ballot harvesting"

"deliver record funding to hire and retrain police officers"

"veto the sinister effort to weaponize civics education"

"increase fairness through price transparency"

"passing a digital bill of rights"

"reduce the soaring price of gasoline, diesel and natural gas"

"get the full cooperation of neighboring governments to dismantle the cartels, or else expose every bribe and kickback that allows these criminal networks to preserve their brutal reign"

"continue to nominate highly qualified prosecutors, judges, and justices who believe in enforcing the law, not their own political agenda"

"create a credentialing body to certify teachers who embrace patriotic values"

"protect Medicare, Social Security, and patients with pre-existing conditions"

"firing any federal bureaucrat who has engaged in censoring the lawful speech of American citizens"

"ban private money from pouring into local election offices"

"end surprise medical billing"

"ban Chinese ownership of all critical infrastructure in the United States"

"reform our election laws to verify the identity and eligibility of all voters"

"reduce the cost of prescription drugs and health insurance premiums"

"impose a total naval embargo on cartels"

"a permanent ban on taxpayer funding of campaigns"

"a lifetime ban on lobbying by former members of Congress and cabinet members"

"implement the direct election of school principals by the parents"

"a constitutional amendment to impose term limits on members of Congress"

Associate/informant provides suspect’s name

Security/doorbell camera footage leading to identification

DNA match from evidence

Suspect voluntarily surrenders

Social media post or online confession leads to identification

Ballistics trace links weapon to suspect

Fingerprint match from evidence

Public tip to police (hotline/Crimestoppers)

Facial recognition match

Cellphone location/records analysis identifies suspect

International cooperation

Automated license plate reader or traffic camera hit

Identified while seeking medical treatment

Identified during a routine traffic stop or unrelated arrest

Undercover operation or sting identifies suspect

Any law enforcement officials accused of police brutality or misconduct

Any cryptocurrency executives or blockchain industry figures

Any members of his second term cabinet

Edward Snowden

Any cryptocurrency or tech industry founders

Any member of the armed forces for conduct reported as a potential war crime

Any members of Trump's legal team or personal attorneys

Any Trump family member

Himself

Derek Chauvin

Any state-level Republican officials

Any anti-abortion activists or religious conservative figures

Any sitting Democratic Governor, Senator, or Congressman

Diddy

Ghislaine Maxwell

Day care workers

strip dancer

Police

Public company CEO

Plumbers

Airline Pilot

Soldier

Burglary

hairdresser

Bus driver

Academic Reseacher

Software Engineer

Super-forcaster

supermarket cashier

Palm Reader

taxi driver

Translator

Uber Driver

Customer Service Chat Agents

Data Entry Clerks

Job Displacement

AI in non-warfare violence (policing, organized crime, etc.)

Other

Surveillance and Privacy

AI in Warfare

Ethical AI Development

Cocaine

Jesus Christ

Fish

Nuclear fusion

Third term

Golden Age

Ghislaine

World War 3 or WW3 (or any other variant)

Election interference

Massive fraud

Trans agenda

Cock (or variant)

Feckless

Be cool

Shithole (or variant)

Newscum

Moist

25th Amendment (or twenty fifth amendment or any other variant)

Defund the police

Failed state

Pussy (or variant)

Shit (or variant)

Fuck (or variant)

Eswatini

Drake

“Sabrina” or “Carpenter”

Peace president

Jew hater or Jew haters

Meth

Divorce

Fifth Column (or any variation)

Delve

Republic of America

Red white and blue land

only four wheels on main vehicle

smaller vehicle that comes with it

Includes a flying machine (helicopter, plane, space ship, etc) as the main or a side vehicle

Police or Fire department theme

has an Extendable ladder as a feature

Predominant color is Non-Green (like 2020, 2015 or 2005) (not counting white as a color)

Main vehicle is construction related (like 2017)

Main vehicle has 6 or more tires

says GASOLINE on one of the vehicles