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Dutch News

Oil Rebounds on Big US Stock Draw as Europe Gas Hits 2025 Low

Oil Rebounds on Big US Stock Draw as Europe Gas Hits 2025 Low

30

6 months ago

When will the Dutch Cabinet Schoof cease to be in power?

Nov 22, 6:43 PMNov 21, 1:00 AM

1226595

OptionProbability

2026

Before 2025

First half of 2025

Second half of 2025

2027

99

0

0

0

0

What Will Happen: Dutch Elections 2025

Jun 9, 7:05 PMJun 29, 10:59 PM

2710654

OptionProbability

VVD will be among the 3 biggest parties

VVD will be among the 4 biggest parties

PVV will get 29 seats or less

50Plus gets at least 1 seat

D66 will be in Top 3 Biggest Parties

At least 1 party leader resigns

D66 leader becomes Prime Minister

Housing will be the biggest topic in the campaigns

No cabinet before municipal election

VVD or BBB will also leave remaining coalition

CDA and JA21 both join the coalition

New general elections before getting a cabinet

Henri Bontenbal becomes Prime Minister

CDA and PvdA/GL will both join coalition

Coalition is formed before 1st of January 2026

PVV leader becomes Prime Minister

Schoof remains Prime Minister in new coalition

Coalition unable to be formed, triggers new election

PvdA/GL and VVD will both join coalition

PVV will become the biggest party

VVD will pick a new party leader

PvdA/GL will have a new name before election day

VVD will be open for coalition with PVV day after election day

Dutch Elections will be delayed (not 29th of Oct)

Schoof will join a party before election day

Timmermans will be replaced before election day

Migration will be the biggest topic again in the campaigns

CDA will be among the 3 biggest parties

A political candidate will be attack (fysical)

Antifa demonstrates before the election in The Hague

CDA will be among the 2 biggest parties

JA21 will be bigger than D66

100

100

100

100

100

100

99

45

7

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Geert Wilders be the Dutch Prime Minister at any point before his death?

Nov 23, 12:25 PMSep 6, 3:59 AM

4.82%chance

254577

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4617

323

Next Dutch Government

Nov 14, 10:18 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

173746

OptionProbability

D66 + VVD + CDA

D66 + GL-PvdA + VVD + CDA

D66 + VVD + CDA + JA21

D66 + VVD + CDA + JA21 + BBB

D66 + GL-PvdA + CDA

other/snap election

98

1

1

0

0

0

Will the Dutch cabinet fall in 2026?

Oct 1, 3:31 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

12.95%chance

131312

OptionVotes

YES

NO

272

53

How long will the next Dutch cabinet formation take?

Jun 6, 3:37 PMJun 9, 10:00 PM

15705

OptionProbability

Less than 127 days (oct 29 2025 - march 4 2026)

127 to 223 days (march 5 2026 - june 9 2026)

More than 223 days (june 10 2026 - ...)

93

5

2

Will the Dutch cabinet fall in 2027?

Oct 1, 3:33 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

21.23%chance

7500

OptionVotes

YES

NO

162

84

CDA loses 10+ seats in Dutch parliamentary election after Oct 2025?

Oct 28, 3:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.43%chance

2350

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1350

741

Will the consort of the next Dutch queen be called King (instead of prince)?

Jun 2, 9:09 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

16.26%chance

7192

OptionVotes

YES

NO

295

97

Dutch 2026 local election: Which parties will outperform their 2025 general election vote share, ignoring local parties?

Jan 14, 6:45 PMMar 18, 7:30 PM

3141

OptionProbability

SGP (>2.3%)

GL-PvdA (>12.8%)

CDA (>11.8%)

CU (>1.9%)

D66 (>16.9%)

VVD (>14.2%)

SP (>1.9%)

PvdD (>2.1%)

DENK (>2.4%)

50PLUS (>1.4%)

VOLT (>1.1%)

BBB (>2.7%)

FVD (>4.5%)

JA21 (>6.0%)

PVV (>16.7%)

84

70

64

64

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

36

34

26

24

What will the annual return from trading on the Dutch frequency imbalance market for a typical home battery be in 2028?

Feb 1, 3:30 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

1100

OptionProbability

€1000 - €1500

€750 - €1000

€500 - €750

> €1500

€0 - 500

21

21

21

18

18

A public 2026 Dutch government cyberbreach will happen in ... ?

Dec 27, 1:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

394

OptionProbability

Q1 - January, February, March 2026

Q2 - April, May, June 2026

Q3 - July, August, September 2026

Q4 - October, November, December 2026

24

24

24

24

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