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Top stories

Germany’s Foreign Minister Doubts Berlin Can Spare Troops for Ukraine

Germany’s Foreign Minister Doubts Berlin Can Spare Troops for Ukraine

Authors

5

4 months ago

Prediction markets for DW

Who is Dwarkesh's upcoming "biggest guest yet"?

Aug 21, 7:36 PMDec 31, 5:59 PM

12282817588

OptionProbability

Elon Musk

Bill Gates

Jeff Bezos

Mr. Beast

Other

Ilya Sutskever

Robert Caro

Barack Obama

Donald Trump

Sam Altman

JD Vance

Jensen Huang

Kamala Harris

Joe Biden

Gwern Branwen

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

roon

pope Francis

Peter Thiel

No one, the tweet was a joke or intended to attract advertisers without referring to someone specific

Sarah Paine

Tim Cook

Satya Nadella

Justin Trudeau

Brian Shaw (_biggest_ guest yet?)

Narendra Modi

Xi Jinping

Dalai Lama

Buffett

Taylor Swift

Lebron James

GPT-5

Bill Clinton

A basketball player

Vladimir Putin

Benjamin Netanyahu

Jesus Christ

Rona Wang

Jose Luis ricon

Kettner Griswold

James Koppel

Sam Bankman-Fried

Nancy Pelosi

Rishi Sunak

Keir Starmer

Satoshi Nakomoto

Jimmy Carter

George W Bush

Al Gore

Michael Jackson

your mom

Mitt Romney

one or both of his parents

A new OpenAI AI model not called "GPT-5"

Connor Duffy

MBS

Geoffrey Hinton

Scott Alexander

The Mountain (Icelandic strongman)

Leonardo DiCaprio

RFK Jr

Sydney Sweeney

growing_daniel

greg16676935420

Deadpool

Terence Tao

Shaq

Oprah Winfrey

Yoshua Bengio

Sundar Pichai

Scarlett Johansson

Paul McCartney

[duplicate]

Neel Nanda

King Charles

Kim Jong Un

Gavin Newsom

Royal Palace

[cancelled option]

Daniel Yergin

Peter Singer

Gabe Newell

Neil Gorsuch

Stephen Breyer

Dmitry Medvedev

JK Rowling

Shrek

Sam Hyde

[invalid answer] Multiple people e.g. a team from OpenAI

Marques Brownlee

Vivek Ramaswamy

Donald Trump Jr.

Ben Shindel

Javier Milei

Dylan Patel

Joe Rogan

Marc Andreessen

Mike Tyson

Jake Paul

Matt Gaetz

21

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4

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2

2

2

1

1

1

1

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1

1

1

1

1

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Will any of @Mira 's pets appear on the Dwarkesh Podcast by end of 2025?

Sep 18, 3:58 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

1.6%chance

36340904

OptionVotes

YES

NO

90470

2046

Will DeepSeek go on Dwarkesh Podcast in 2025?

Jan 22, 6:59 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4%chance

51105679

OptionVotes

YES

NO

50734

4866

Will humans land on a planet, dwarf planet, or moon large enough to be spheroid in shape OTHER than the Moon or Mars by the end of 2050?

Oct 15, 11:36 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29%chance

493876

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1584

568

Will Dwarkesh Patel interview a current or former US President before 2027?

Jun 29, 8:10 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

46.05%chance

152586

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1082

924

Dwarkesh Patel Stock

May 20, 7:39 AM

5930

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1910

523

Will a Dwarkesh guest mention the manifold market about his biggest guest during an interview?

Sep 22, 8:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

34.62%chance

7905

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1374

728

Will Dwarf Fortress still be receiving regular updates when James Cameron's Avatar 4 releases?

Jan 17, 5:03 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

80.02%chance

23775

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1321

878

Will there be HD real images (e.g. telescope, probe) of the dwarf planet Eris by 2030?

Jan 9, 3:47 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

12.5%chance

18649

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1360

886

Will Dwarkesh interview Elon by mid 2026

Nov 13, 3:56 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

30%chance

7558

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1528

655

Will Dwarkesh interview Sundar Pichai by mid 2026

Nov 13, 3:57 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

37.04%chance

4378

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1304

767

Will a human set foot on the dwarf planet Ceres before 2060?

Jan 17, 3:58 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

25.3%chance

12256

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1007

983

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