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Prediction markets for DWA

Who is Dwarkesh's upcoming "biggest guest yet"?

Aug 21, 7:36 PMDec 31, 5:59 PM

12802903970

OptionProbability

Other

Elon Musk

Bill Gates

Jeff Bezos

Robert Caro

Mr. Beast

Barack Obama

Donald Trump

Kamala Harris

JD Vance

Terence Tao

Sarah Paine

Sam Altman

Narendra Modi

Gwern Branwen

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

roon

Geoffrey Hinton

Ilya Sutskever

Jensen Huang

Peter Thiel

No one, the tweet was a joke or intended to attract advertisers without referring to someone specific

Tim Cook

Satya Nadella

Justin Trudeau

Brian Shaw (_biggest_ guest yet?)

Xi Jinping

Dalai Lama

Buffett

Taylor Swift

Joe Biden

Lebron James

GPT-5

Bill Clinton

A basketball player

Vladimir Putin

Benjamin Netanyahu

Jesus Christ

Rona Wang

Jose Luis ricon

Kettner Griswold

James Koppel

Sam Bankman-Fried

Nancy Pelosi

Rishi Sunak

Keir Starmer

Satoshi Nakomoto

Jimmy Carter

George W Bush

Al Gore

Michael Jackson

your mom

Mitt Romney

one or both of his parents

A new OpenAI AI model not called "GPT-5"

Connor Duffy

MBS

pope Francis

Scott Alexander

The Mountain (Icelandic strongman)

Leonardo DiCaprio

RFK Jr

Sydney Sweeney

growing_daniel

greg16676935420

Deadpool

Shaq

Oprah Winfrey

Yoshua Bengio

Sundar Pichai

Scarlett Johansson

Paul McCartney

[duplicate]

Neel Nanda

King Charles

Kim Jong Un

Gavin Newsom

Royal Palace

[cancelled option]

Daniel Yergin

Peter Singer

Gabe Newell

Neil Gorsuch

Stephen Breyer

Dmitry Medvedev

JK Rowling

Shrek

Sam Hyde

[invalid answer] Multiple people e.g. a team from OpenAI

Marques Brownlee

Vivek Ramaswamy

Donald Trump Jr.

Ben Shindel

Javier Milei

Dylan Patel

Joe Rogan

Marc Andreessen

Mike Tyson

Jake Paul

Matt Gaetz

21

13

12

11

6

5

4

3

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Manifold agree that Dwarkesh's upcoming guest is "by far [his] biggest yet"? (Resolves to poll)

Aug 22, 4:55 PMAug 20, 6:59 AM

26.85%chance

8812380

OptionVotes

YES

NO

804

121

Will Dwarkesh Patel interview a current or former US President before 2027?

Jun 29, 8:10 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

13.49%chance

174036

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2532

395

Will humans land on a planet, dwarf planet, or moon large enough to be spheroid in shape OTHER than the Moon or Mars by the end of 2050?

Oct 15, 11:36 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29%chance

493876

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1584

568

Will Dwarf Fortress still be receiving regular updates when James Cameron's Avatar 4 releases?

Jan 17, 5:03 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

86.17%chance

231275

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1821

779

Will Dwarkesh interview Sundar Pichai by mid 2026

Nov 13, 3:57 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

18.43%chance

61178

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2104

475

Dwarkesh Patel Stock

May 20, 7:39 AM

5930

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1910

523

Will there be HD real images (e.g. telescope, probe) of the dwarf planet Eris by 2030?

Jan 9, 3:47 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

12.5%chance

18649

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1360

886

Will the Tamaraw, a.k.a. Mindoro Dwarf Buffalo (Bubalus mindorensis) become extinct in the current century?

Mar 27, 8:47 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

76.89%chance

4504

OptionVotes

YES

NO

476

453

Will a human set foot on the dwarf planet Ceres before 2060?

Jan 17, 3:58 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

25.3%chance

12256

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1007

983

Will Parmita Mishra be interviewed by Lex Fridman OR Dwarkesh Patel by EOY 2030?

Jun 30, 10:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

60.98%chance

125

OptionVotes

NO

YES

125

80

If Jose Luis ricon sumo wrestled with dwarkesh Patel, would he win

Jul 6, 5:13 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50.5%chance

11

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

99

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