OptionProbability
Pilot Action: Pilot action was a primary cause of the crash.
Design/Manufacturing Defect: A Boeing design or manufacturing defect was a primary cause of the crash.
Maintenance/Fueling Lapse: An Air India maintenance or fueling lapse was a primary cause of the crash.
89
22
17
OptionVotes
YES
NO
19650
5089
Market chaos
Vacant House seats at start of term
Bonus underlying chaos
Any member seated who was not the winner
Bonus market chaos
Vacant Senate seats at start of term
Any state misses filing deadlines for certified results
Congress refuses to accept any certified result
Majority control discrepancy in the Senate
Majority control discrepancy in the House
Failure to establish a quorum in first roll-call vote (either chamber)
Multiple Speaker ballots, or failure to elect a Speaker on the first day
Any member-elect changes parties
Any major news organization retracts a call
New election ordered for any seat
Senator not up for re-election changes party
Any member-elect denied the oath of office
Any election delayed
VP party change or otherwise announced change in Senate tie break
63
60
45
40
37
34
31
28
27
20
10
8
3
Not on NATO area/Not at all
Finland
Other
Estonia
Lithuania
Latvia
79
7
6
1163
953
535
124
293
208
66