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Prediction markets for Eastern Standard Time

Will Intel Stock (INTC) reach $150 in 2026?

Jul 23, 12:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.43%chance

7146490

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1239

807

When will Trump die?

Feb 21, 11:02 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

6012504

OptionProbability

After 2025 (79)

After 2026 (80)

After 2027 (81)

After 2028 (82)

After 2030 (84)

After 2036 (90)

After 2041 (95)

After 2046 (100)

100

97

92

87

71

19

7

2

(When) will there be a significant change to timekeeping in the US?

Oct 21, 7:20 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

163247

OptionProbability

Not before 2030

2027

2026

2028

2029

2025

2023

2024

45

15

13

11

10

5

1

1

How high will Trump rank by time in office?

Oct 28, 12:50 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM

222222

OptionProbability

2nd, tied

14th

17th

2nd, outright

1st

16th

15th

18th

19th

20th

62

10

8

7

4

3

2

2

1

1

Will the number of time zones on Earth change by 2030?

Mar 17, 8:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

45.66%chance

24606

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1060

932

The next time the number of time zones on the Earth changes, will the number increase or decrease?

Mar 20, 5:20 AMMar 27, 6:59 AM

11222

OptionProbability

Number of time zones will decrease next.

Number of time zones will increase next.

74

26

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.12%chance

4157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1091

1011

Will the US launch a Manhattan Project / Apollo Program for AI safety by EOY 2030?

Jun 21, 10:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.34%chance

635

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

Will Cheesecake Factory stock price close below 88.88 by December 28, 2026? (NASDAQ: CAKE)

Jul 30, 6:00 AMDec 27, 11:59 PM

37.17%chance

230

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

77

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