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Prediction markets for Eastern Standard Time

When will Trump die?

Feb 21, 11:02 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

5612291

OptionProbability

After 2025 (79)

After 2026 (80)

After 2027 (81)

After 2028 (82)

After 2030 (84)

After 2036 (90)

After 2041 (95)

After 2046 (100)

100

96

90

85

71

12

5

2

(When) will there be a significant change to timekeeping in the US?

Oct 21, 7:20 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

122820

OptionProbability

Not before 2030

2026

2027

2028

2029

2025

2023

2024

42

18

14

10

9

6

1

1

How high will Trump rank by time in office?

Oct 28, 12:50 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM

222218

OptionProbability

2nd, tied

14th

17th

2nd, outright

1st

16th

15th

18th

19th

20th

61

9

8

7

4

3

2

2

2

1

Will the number of time zones on Earth change by 2030?

Mar 17, 8:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

45.66%chance

24606

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1060

932

The next time the number of time zones on the Earth changes, will the number increase or decrease?

Mar 20, 5:20 AMMar 27, 6:59 AM

11222

OptionProbability

Number of time zones will decrease next.

Number of time zones will increase next.

74

26

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.12%chance

4157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1091

1011

Will the US launch a Manhattan Project / Apollo Program for AI safety by EOY 2030?

Jun 21, 10:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.34%chance

635

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

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