Eastern Time News

YES

Dems win Florida and/or Texas Governor

Any Republican held senate seat is called by the associated press within 2 minutes of polls closing in the state

Democrats win Georgia and Nevada Governor election

Abdul el Sayed wins by 1.5% or more

Associated Press or NBC make house control projection before 11.01pm Tues Nov 3

This market has 100+ total traders by 11.59pm tues Nov 3 eastern time.

Maine senate election is called before Alaska senate (associated press)

James Talarico declared winner by associated press before 9am Wednesday by associated press?

Democrats win Kansas and Iowa senate

Democrats win Kansas and Texas governor

Democrats win Texas Governor

Susan Collins AND Mike Lawler Lose?

Democrats win 52 senate seats or more (resolves on ap projections)

Democrats win 53 senate seats or more (resolves on ap projections)

Any senate race NOT yet called by the associated press 2 days after polls closed?

Democrats win 55 senate seats or more (resolves on ap projections)

Ca Wealth tax (prop 40) fails by 5% or more

Abdul El Sayed and James Talarico both win by 2.5% or more

Mary Peltola AND James Talarico win

Scott colom wins by 2000 votes or more

Any US house race has a margin of victory of 1000 votes or less

Democrats win 56 senate seats or more (ap projections)

Any US house race has a margin of victory of 500 votes or less

Mississippi is closest senate race (by margin of victory)

Mississippi senate is called before Alaska senate? (Associated press)

Mississippi senate called by associated press by 11.59pm eastern Nov 20

Mississippi senate called by associated press by 11.59pm eastern Nov 17

Scott colom wins by 3500 votes or more

Mississippi senate called by associated press by 11.59pm eastern Nov 14

Scott colom wins by 5000 votes or more

Any senate election has margin of victory of 0.5% or less

Mississippi senate called by associated press by 11.59pm eastern Nov 10

Abdul el Sayed wins by 7.5% or more

Mary Peltola gets 50% or more in first round of Alaska senate

Scott colom wins by 7500 votes or more

A Tweet from @ AbdulElSayed gets 500k+ likes within 24 hours.

A tweet from @ Jamestalarico gets 500k+ likes within 24 hours

Scott colom wins by 10000 votes or more

Mississippi senate called by associated press by 11.59pm eastern Nov 8

Any Republican senate candidate says the election was stolen, cheated, or fraud stopped them from winning, before Nov 6 11.59pm ET

Trump falsely declares victory/says his candidate won in a race they did not (before 11.59pm et Nov 6)

Mary Peltola wins by more than Troy Jackson (resolves on final round results)

Any senate candidate wins with 47% or less of the vote

Abdul El Sayed wins by 8% or more

Abdul el Sayed mentions Haley stevens by name in election night speech (or first speech next day if none)

BOTH Maine and Alaska senate not called by 11.59pm Eastern Wed Nov 4

Mike rogers claims the Michigan election was stolen/rigged/cheated/inconsistent before 11.59pm Thursday Nov 5

Abdul El Sayed wins by more than Peggy Flanagan does in Minnesota?

Adam Hamilton (Kansas) wins by more than Abdul el sayed

Alaska senate called by associated press by 11.59pm eastern Wed Nov 4

Donald trump POSTS 10 times on truth social on Wednesday Nov 4, eastern time. Posts only, retruths don’t count.

La Mayor election called by Ap or NBC by 11.59pm pacific time Nov 4?

On Earth

Before 2045

Before we have an universal flu vaccine

Before me

In the US

Before WW3

After his presidency

After Mitch McConnell

In the Eastern time zone

Natural causes

When BTC is above $80.000

When TRUMP Coin is below $1.0

Surrounded by his friends and loved ones

Before potato2017 gets a world record in any competitive achievement leaderboard in the online game tetr.io

In a hospital

Closer to Venus than to Mars

Before we get ASI

At or greater than 20m above sea level (using https://en-gb.topographic-map.com/map-nb18/United-States/ to verify if necessary)

in bed

After Joe Biden

After Chuck Grassley

Before we get AGI

After Bernie Sanders

After Jim Risch

After Angus King

After Dick Durbin

In his sleep

While he is on a GLP-1

When BTC is below $100.000

In Florida

Closer to Venus than to the Sun

After he announced he is sick

After my Manifold account has been inactive for 12+ months

Mar-a-Lago

After 2035

Closer to Mars than to the Sun

In a way that Manifold finds suspicious, according to a Manifold poll

Before 2030

In front of a camera

While mercury is in retrograde

Within 6 months of leaving office

On a Sunday

On a Monday

On a Tuesday

On a Wednesday

On a Thursday

On a Friday

On a Saturday

By assassination

The White House

After a stroke in public

Outside (not in a vehicle or building)

While doing a speech

After 2040

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

During WW3

2035

2035

With a bullet inside his body

2029

On an airplane

In New Jersey

While in office

On TV

2037

2038

2036

2028

2039

After J D Vance dies

Killed because a deal went sideways

2027

While doing a funny dance

In Qatar

While having sex

On a gold toilet

In Russia

He will become effectively immortal

Food poisoning

2026

In Greenland

Before the midterms 2026

2025

Q2, 2026

NO

YES

NO

YES

August 2026

July 2026

September 2026

October 2026

November 2026

December 2026

YES

YES

NO