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ECI News

    Prediction markets for ECI

    Top 5 most useful tests for AGI

    Oct 17, 4:01 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM
    3318059

    OptionProbability

    HCAST - METR

    CAIS Remote Labor Index

    Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI)

    ARC-AGI (any version)

    GDPval https://openai.com/index/gdpval

    PaperBench https://openai.com/index/paperbench

    Opinion poll of Manifold userbase

    Wozniak Coffee Test (requires controlling a robot)

    Build, debug and test until its of sufficient quality, a complex piece of software like a mobile app including a backend service

    Predict the output of an arbitrary set of NAND gates and inputs

    Beating Pokemon games

    Manually rearrange and overlap 100 random images in an image editor (with no other kinds of edits) to create a recognizable portrait

    85

    75

    69

    61

    57

    50

    29

    25

    17

    16

    16

    14

    Best Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI) in 2025?

    Oct 27, 8:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    61923

    OptionProbability

    154

    Other

    155

    153

    156

    152

    157

    151

    158

    150

    159

    15

    14

    12

    11

    10

    9

    8

    6

    6

    5

    5

    Best Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI) before May 2026?

    Oct 27, 8:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    41534

    OptionProbability

    Other

    150

    156

    157

    158

    159

    155

    154

    153

    152

    151

    33

    10

    8

    8

    8

    8

    7

    6

    5

    4

    3

    Will DeepSeek V3.2 get >145 on the Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI)?

    Dec 2, 1:10 AMJan 1, 1:09 AM
    38%chance
    4597

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1277

    783

    Which Organization will have the greatest score on ECI by EOY 2026?

    Nov 17, 7:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    250

    OptionProbability

    Deepmind

    OpenAI

    Anthropic

    XAI

    Other

    35

    16

    16

    16

    16

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