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Prediction markets for ECI
OptionProbability
95
60
17
7
5
3
What will be the highest Epoch Capabilities Index score in 2026?
Jan 16, 8:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
2419939
OptionProbability
28
21
18
11
9
8
4
2
OptionProbability
33
31
20
5
3
3
3
2
OptionProbability
33
11
11
10
9
7
5
4
4
3
1
1
1
1
Does hidden interpolation explain >25% of AI progress?
Dec 4, 12:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
43.09%chance
82651
OptionVotes
1149
870
OptionProbability
85
15
Is the cognitive core hypothesis true? Will it be clear next year?
Dec 7, 7:06 PMDec 8, 6:39 PM
36.12%chance
71161
OptionVotes
3991
2255
By what factor will the cost per token of "Gemini 3 Pro equivalent" intelligence change this year?
Feb 2, 1:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
6469
OptionProbability
41
21
15
11
8
5
Which Organization will have the greatest score on ECI by EOY 2026?
Nov 17, 7:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
250
OptionProbability
35
16
16
16
16