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Prediction markets for Eco

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

27.86%chance

653719860

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5791

4783

Are Republicans or Democrats better for the economy? [Annual GDP growth by presidential party]

Jul 9, 4:05 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

3580149

OptionProbability

Republican president, >= 2%, <3%

Republican president, <2%

Republican president, >= 3%, <4%

Republican president, >=4%

Democrat president, <2%

Democrat president, >= 2%, <3%

Democrat president, >= 3%, <4%

Democrat president, >=4%

50

21

18

8

1

1

1

1

What will be the dominant unit of economic power used by humans in 2040?

Nov 4, 4:21 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

8553764

OptionProbability

US Dollar (USD)*

Chinese Renminbi (CNY)*

Euro (EUR)*

Reputation-based Currency (e.g., Whuffie points)

British Pound (GBP)*

Unit of Computation (FLOP/IOP, etc.)

Utilitarian Value-based Currency (DALY, QALY, dead children, etc.)

Energy-based Unit (Joule/Wh, etc.)

Bitcoin (BTC)*

Paperclips

Gold (Au)

Emission-Linked Financial Instrument (e.g., carbon coin)

Worldcoin (WLD)*

Ethereum (ETH)*

TRUMP

Manifold Mana

65

33

22

12

12

8

8

8

7

6

6

6

5

4

3

1

Will China overtake the United States as the world's largest economy before the end of 2050?

Apr 21, 8:10 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

65.82%chance

10045304

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1287

787

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2035?

Aug 7, 6:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

23.8%chance

8838615

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1020

841

Econoboi Stock

Nov 3, 1:57 AMAug 11, 9:43 PM

17014638

OptionProbability

YES

NO

2565

863

How will Venezuela be classified in The Economist's 2027 Democracy Index?

Jan 3, 12:27 PMJan 30, 11:59 PM

8010795

OptionProbability

Authoritarian regime

Hybrid regime

Flawed democracy

Full democracy

60

30

8

2

Will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically before 2040?

Feb 18, 8:40 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

36.4%chance

1319418

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1808

935

Will the world economy grow by more than 10000% in a single year before the year X?

Jul 4, 7:27 AMJan 17, 4:59 PM

206753

OptionProbability

Before 2100

Before 2070

Before 2050

Before 2035

Before 2030

Before 2027

20

16

13

9

6

1

By the end of 2035, will any country score 95/9.5 or higher on one of the two major economic freedom indexes?

Mar 31, 7:04 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

27.42%chance

12860

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10622

9739

Will an eco-terrorism act causing a significant loss of life (10+) occur before 2035?

Jan 31, 6:31 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

56.93%chance

11403

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1017

958

Who will win a 2027 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences?

Oct 15, 2:17 PMOct 11, 6:00 AM

00

OptionProbability

Ariel Pakes

Steven T. Berry

Susan Athey

Ernst Fehr

Richard Blundell

David Autor

Matthew Rabin

Partha Dasgupta

Hal Varian

Janet Currie

7

6

5

5

5

4

4

4

3

3

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