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Prediction markets for Economic Development

Which international organizations or agreements will the United States leave before 2029?

Jan 22, 1:22 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

213754

OptionProbability

Paris Climate Agreement

United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO)

World Health Organization (WHO)

United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC)

United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA)

World Trade Organization (WTO)

North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)

International Labour Organization (ILO)

Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)

World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO)

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

World Bank

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)

United Nations (UN)

International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO)

99

95

95

80

80

72

62

55

55

50

45

44

41

37

34

17

After university, which of these economics electives will I think, I should have taken?

Mar 30, 12:53 PMSep 20, 9:59 PM

292801

OptionProbability

Multivariate statistics

Game Theory

Computer-aided Statistical Analysis

Stochastic models

Applied Microeconometrics

Incentives and economic institutions

Auctions and markets

Time series analysis

Behavioral Economics

Introduction to Economics of Information

Monetary theory and monetary policy

Non-parametric statistics

Economic history

Behavioral Finance

Experimental economic research

Industrial economics

Collective Choice

Environmental economics

Labor markets and population economics

Bounded Rationality

Empirical Corporate Finance

Financial and social policy

Business planning

International banking services

Contract theory

Company valuation

Bank management

International Economics

Development Economics

Advanced Corporate Finance

Political Economy

Cost management and cost accounting

Personnel economics

International accounting according to IFRS

Accidental duplicate (Will resolve to 0%)

69

68

62

60

47

41

41

39

32

32

29

27

25

25

24

24

23

23

21

21

21

21

21

19

18

18

17

17

17

16

14

12

11

11

0

Will an AI play a pivotal role in solving an important political issue by 2033?

Mar 14, 11:02 PMMar 14, 11:59 PM

70.28%chance

712780

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1737

971

EU ends unanimous decision-making by EOY 2035?

Jul 14, 12:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.17%chance

101697

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2277

439

Aging cured by 2040 if AGI by 2030?

May 7, 9:30 PMDec 30, 9:09 PM

18.71%chance

231420

OptionVotes

YES

NO

208

48

GPT-Zero: By 2030, will anyone develop an AI with a massive GPT-like knowledge base that it taught itself?

Jun 1, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.83%chance

22864

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1124

534

Sometime before 2031, AI is going to cross a generality threshold that allows for recursive self-improvement, and then FOOM to superhuman capability. Before that point humanity must solve AI safety or be helpless.

Dec 24, 3:53 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

27.15%chance

17792

OptionVotes

NO

YES

990

970

When will be the first year that GDP doubles (i.e., a period of 12 months in which there is 100% growth of global GDP)?

Aug 13, 5:03 PMAug 13, 9:59 PM

38.09%chance

15668

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1286

761

Will the US recognize AI property rights under federal law before 2040?

Nov 25, 9:20 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

37.54%chance

5431

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1290

775

Will major AI research institutions adopt AI tax policy as a research priority by the end of 2025?

Jul 11, 6:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

54.7%chance

2400

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2198

1820

Will the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) exist at EOY 2025?

Nov 18, 6:26 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

95.36%chance

7356

OptionVotes

NO

YES

453

22

Will the USG centralize frontier AI development in a single government project?

Nov 19, 2:42 PMDec 21, 4:59 AM

56.51%chance

4140

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1140

877

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