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Prediction markets for Economic Policy

Will consumer AI platforms (ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, etc) face an ‘economic blackout’ protest against the US govt?

Jan 25, 8:48 PMJul 30, 10:59 PM

8.01%chance

7842197

OptionVotes

YES

NO

33880

2952

Will Vic NEM 2027 annual average wholesale price exceed A$105/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

43.1%chance

53790

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17520

12743

Will the German federal government survive its full 4-year term?

Oct 27, 10:32 PMDec 8, 11:59 PM

47.68%chance

203326

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1048

955

EU ends unanimous decision-making by EOY 2035?

Jul 14, 12:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.17%chance

112322

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1724

580

Will OMIE Spain 2028 annual average wholesale price exceed €65/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

45.46%chance

2751

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10751

9328

LLMs widely used in economics modeling by the end of 2026?

Aug 29, 12:23 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

42.85%chance

15727

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1151

729

Will Susan Athey win a Nobel Prize before 2030?

Mar 9, 4:36 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

44.86%chance

24662

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1164

737

Will Vic NEM 2028 annual average wholesale price exceed A$115/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

40.92%chance

2501

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10499

9640

Will MISO Indiana Hub 2027 day-ahead annual average exceed US$55/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

43.91%chance

2501

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10501

9321

Will MISO Indiana Hub 2028 day-ahead annual average exceed US$60/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

36.34%chance

3206

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10206

9628

In the age of automation, will universal basic income be a necessary policy for economic stability?

Dec 10, 6:34 AMJan 9, 6:59 AM

58.25%chance

11118

OptionVotes

NO

YES

252

173

Will OMIE Spain 2027 annual average wholesale price exceed €60/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

55.99%chance

11

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10001

9999

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