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Prediction markets for Economic Policy

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

71.93%chance

163414

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

979

Will a single parent in Brazil earn at least one minimum wage from Bolsa Família by 2029?

Sep 25, 11:44 AMJan 1, 3:59 AM

40.23%chance

62299

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4086

101

Will Argentina's poverty level drop below 15% by 2030?

Dec 25, 11:21 AMJun 1, 9:59 PM

37.96%chance

421851

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1325

720

EU ends unanimous decision-making by EOY 2035?

Jul 14, 12:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.17%chance

101697

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2277

439

California Exodus: Will California lose inhabitants between 2010 and 2030?

Nov 11, 10:03 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

38.23%chance

271685

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1331

713

LLMs widely used in economics modeling by the end of 2026?

Aug 29, 12:23 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

42.85%chance

15727

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1151

729

Will Susan Athey win a Nobel Prize before 2030?

Mar 9, 4:36 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

42.97%chance

23632

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1134

776

Party for Freedom (PVV) secures the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary election on October 29, 2025

Jul 26, 5:21 AMOct 29, 5:20 AM

54.34%chance

10604

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1091

917

Will major AI research institutions adopt AI tax policy as a research priority by the end of 2025?

Jul 11, 6:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

54.7%chance

2400

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2198

1820

Will the validity of the Consumer Price Index as a measure of inflation be widely questioned during 2025? #Economics

Jan 22, 7:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

44.11%chance

3175

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1126

888

Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Dec 2025 to exceed 600

Jun 30, 4:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.1%chance

3131

OptionVotes

YES

NO

115

87

In the age of automation, will universal basic income be a necessary policy for economic stability?

Dec 10, 6:34 AMJan 9, 6:59 AM

57.98%chance

11117

OptionVotes

NO

YES

251

174

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