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Prediction markets for Economic Policy

Will Vic NEM 2027 annual average wholesale price exceed A$105/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

11.04%chance

1029143

OptionVotes

YES

NO

42502

5063

Will Vic NEM 2028 annual average wholesale price exceed A$115/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

22.07%chance

67506

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17481

6562

Will the MISO Indiana annual average wholesale electricity price for calendar year 2027 exceed 52 USD per MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

32.76%chance

43511

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12331

8645

Will OMIE Spain 2028 annual average wholesale price exceed €65/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

40.01%chance

53433

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12045

8363

Will MISO Indiana Hub 2028 day-ahead annual average exceed US$60/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

28.58%chance

42706

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12128

9013

EU ends unanimous decision-making by EOY 2035?

Jul 14, 12:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.11%chance

112422

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1824

548

Will the OMIE Spain annual average wholesale electricity price for calendar year 2027 exceed 60 EUR per MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

55.17%chance

52059

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10149

9814

Will Mexico's real GDP grow by at least 1.4% in 2026?

May 1, 11:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.84%chance

141714

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1377

507

California Exodus: Will California lose inhabitants between 2010 and 2030?

Nov 11, 10:03 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

37.58%chance

281696

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1378

717

LLMs widely used in economics modeling by the end of 2026?

Aug 29, 12:23 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.08%chance

161027

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1029

977

Will Susan Athey win a Nobel Prize before 2030?

Mar 9, 4:36 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

44.86%chance

24662

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1164

737

In the age of automation, will universal basic income be a necessary policy for economic stability?

Dec 10, 6:34 AMJan 9, 6:59 AM

58.25%chance

11118

OptionVotes

NO

YES

252

173

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