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Top stories

Japanese PM Ishiba Meets Former Leaders as LDP Plans September 2 Election Defeat Report, 63% Undecided on Early Vote

Authors

9

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Economic Security

8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job loss [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62.52%chance

3826421

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1294

776

Will all 500 billion dollars from Project Stargate actually get invested within four years?

Jan 22, 3:37 AMJan 29, 4:59 AM

29.15%chance

6110099

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5753

4784

Will the German federal government survive its full 4-year term?

Oct 27, 10:32 PMDec 8, 11:59 PM

45.99%chance

254628

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1084

923

U.S. 30 Year TIPS yield exceeds 4% before 2028?

Oct 10, 11:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.65%chance

114139

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2753

1315

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

75.68%chance

173564

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1159

926

EU ends unanimous decision-making by EOY 2035?

Jul 14, 12:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.06%chance

122452

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1729

578

Will Communism fall from power in Cuba by January 1, 2035?

Dec 5, 2:26 PMJan 2, 10:59 PM

74.07%chance

232286

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1690

592

Will the planned city of Praxis begin construction by 2030?

Sep 14, 4:50 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

52.86%chance

271699

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1320

513

AI system achieves full technological and economic autonomy before 2028?

Sep 20, 7:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.52%chance

61498

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1440

694

Leopold Aschenbrenner makes no public statements of consequence for a 2-year period before 2035

Jun 10, 1:57 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

39.1%chance

10950

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1248

801

[Making Sense: Peter Zeihan] Will the german state cease to exist before 2070?

Feb 23, 8:06 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

18.18%chance

19899

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1264

921

Will Claudia Sheinbaum have a net positive approval rating at the end of May 2030?

Feb 18, 10:42 PMJun 1, 5:59 AM

44.34%chance

5152

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1018

984

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