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Top stories

Japanese PM Ishiba Meets Former Leaders as LDP Plans September 2 Election Defeat Report, 63% Undecided on Early Vote

Authors

9

3 months ago

Prediction markets for Economic Security

Will either the courts or congress significantly limit trumps ability to impose or negotiate tariffs by the end of 2025

Apr 7, 10:55 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41%chance

18878426

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1223

869

Will all 500 billion dollars from Project Stargate actually get invested within four years?

Jan 22, 3:37 AMJan 29, 4:59 AM

26.24%chance

589801

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6341

4559

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

71.93%chance

163414

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

979

EU ends unanimous decision-making by EOY 2035?

Jul 14, 12:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.74%chance

112283

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1614

620

AI system achieves full technological and economic autonomy before 2028?

Sep 20, 7:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.52%chance

61498

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1440

694

Will the planned city of Praxis begin construction by 2030?

Sep 14, 4:50 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

32.6%chance

231176

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1023

921

Will Communism fall from power in Cuba by January 1, 2035?

Dec 5, 2:26 PMJan 2, 10:59 PM

39.69%chance

14989

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1233

811

Leopold Aschenbrenner makes no public statements of consequence for a 2-year period before 2035

Jun 10, 1:57 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

39.1%chance

10950

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1248

801

Will the German federal government survive its full 4-year term?

Oct 27, 10:32 PMDec 8, 11:59 PM

40.03%chance

8554

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1224

817

U.S. 30 Year TIPS yield exceeds 3% before 2027?

Oct 14, 11:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.75%chance

4445

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1005

995

U.S. 30 Year TIPS yield exceeds 4% before 2028?

Oct 10, 11:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.9%chance

3377

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1308

765

U.S. 30 Year TIPS yield exceeds 3% before 2028?

Oct 10, 11:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.64%chance

2352

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1352

740

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