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Top stories

Japanese PM Ishiba Meets Former Leaders as LDP Plans September 2 Election Defeat Report, 63% Undecided on Early Vote

Authors

9

10 months ago

Prediction markets for Economic Security

Will all 500 billion dollars from Project Stargate actually get invested within four years?

Jan 22, 3:37 AMJan 29, 4:59 AM

28.82%chance

5910001

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5814

4759

Gas exceeds $4.50, and democrats control both House and Senate?

Apr 5, 6:51 PMNov 5, 11:59 PM

47.29%chance

336202

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1056

947

Will the German federal government survive its full 4-year term?

Oct 27, 10:32 PMDec 8, 11:59 PM

50.97%chance

224343

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1020

981

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

75.68%chance

173564

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1159

926

8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job oss [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.37%chance

222338

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1439

697

EU ends unanimous decision-making by EOY 2035?

Jul 14, 12:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.17%chance

112322

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1724

580

AI system achieves full technological and economic autonomy before 2028?

Sep 20, 7:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.52%chance

61498

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1440

694

Will the planned city of Praxis begin construction by 2030?

Sep 14, 4:50 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

32.6%chance

231176

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1023

921

Leopold Aschenbrenner makes no public statements of consequence for a 2-year period before 2035

Jun 10, 1:57 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

39.1%chance

10950

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1248

801

U.S. 30 Year TIPS yield exceeds 4% before 2028?

Oct 10, 11:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.42%chance

7916

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1008

992

U.S. 30 Year TIPS yield exceeds 3% before 2027?

Oct 14, 11:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.74%chance

5805

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1355

738

U.S. 30 Year TIPS yield exceeds 3% before 2028?

Oct 10, 11:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.18%chance

4652

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1652

605

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