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Top stories

Verasight Poll Puts Democrats 51-49 Ahead on Generic Ballot

Verasight Poll Puts Democrats 51-49 Ahead on Generic Ballot

Authors

3

7 days ago

Prediction markets for Economist

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

23%chance

461340799

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2827

2590

Will the United States degrade into a 'Hybrid Regime' on the Economist Democracy Index before 2040?

Jun 20, 10:38 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

38.22%chance

314818

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1271

787

Will the Economist Intelligent Unit stop classifying the United States as a democracy before 2030?

Mar 28, 8:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.73%chance

204177

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2154

464

USA's 2025 Economist Democracy Index score?

Apr 17, 8:07 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

63843

Will the WSJ, NYT, FT, or Economist create a market on Manifold by 2030?

Oct 29, 5:04 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19.52%chance

292067

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1836

655

Will Michele Boldrin (Italian economist & professor) partecipate at the next elections in Italy?

Apr 15, 5:50 PMOct 21, 10:59 PM

26.12%chance

13929

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1031

856

Which country will be selected as "Country of the Year" by The Economist in 2025?

Dec 22, 3:34 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

18705

OptionProbability

Syria

Argentina

China

Ukraine

Palestine

Greenland

Taiwan

South Korea

Japan

Brazil

Indonesia

Venezuela

Bangladesh

India

40

23

15

14

12

12

11

6

6

6

6

6

5

4

What will Russia's democracy index be in 2026, as per the Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy report?

Nov 26, 6:26 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM

20.62%chance

5242

OptionProbability

YES

NO

480

278

What will The Economist Democracy Index of Myanmar be in 2025?

May 8, 2:37 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2200

If Vladimir Putin is not in power in Russia, what will Russia's democracy index be in 2026, as per the Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy report?

Nov 27, 7:19 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM

34.53%chance

6165

OptionProbability

NO

YES

334

319

Will the country ranked #1 in The Economist’s 2025 Democracy Index have a directly elected head of state?

Mar 22, 3:15 PMJan 17, 11:59 PM

32.86%chance

446

OptionVotes

YES

NO

143

70

What will Syria's Economist Democracy Index be in 2025?

Dec 12, 1:18 AMJan 31, 2:59 PM

120

OptionProbability

1.0 - 1.5

0.5 - 1.0

1.5 - 2.0

0.0 - 0.5

Other

31

24

21

12

12

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