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Verasight Poll Puts Democrats 51-49 Ahead on Generic Ballot
Authors
3
11 months ago
Prediction markets for Economist
By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?
Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
35.46%chance
630671922
OptionVotes
5352
4554
How will Venezuela be classified in The Economist's 2027 Democracy Index?
Jan 3, 12:27 PMJan 30, 11:59 PM
8010689
OptionProbability
60
31
8
1
Will the United States degrade into a 'Hybrid Regime' on the Economist Democracy Index before 2040?
Jun 20, 10:38 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM
44.34%chance
344924
OptionVotes
1120
892
Will the Economist Intelligent Unit stop classifying the United States as a democracy before 2030?
Mar 28, 8:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
11.52%chance
214753
OptionVotes
2771
361
Will the WSJ, NYT, FT, or Economist create a market on Manifold by 2030?
Oct 29, 5:04 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
20.62%chance
292141
OptionVotes
1762
673
Will Michele Boldrin (Italian economist & professor) partecipate at the next elections in Italy?
Apr 15, 5:50 PMOct 21, 10:59 PM
29.49%chance
161983
OptionVotes
1071
752
OptionProbability
22
22
22
15
15
3
2
OptionProbability
90
85
83
72
72
59
34
28
24
4
4
4
OptionProbability
28
26
26
7
7
4
3
If this person is leader of the Labour Party going into the next UK general election, will the Economist endorse Labour?
Apr 30, 10:32 PMMay 1, 11:59 PM
7200
OptionProbability
35
31
31
30
29
28
Which countries will the Economist make endorsements in elections for in Oct 2025 - Dec 2029?
Oct 23, 2:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
2114
OptionProbability
95
83
50
50
50
50
If this person is leader of the Lib Dems going into the next UK general election, will the Economist endorse Lib Dems?
May 1, 6:29 PMJun 15, 6:28 PM
167
OptionProbability
30
30
30
26