Economist News

Verasight Poll Puts Democrats 51-49 Ahead on Generic Ballot

1 year ago

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

27.86%chance

653719860

OptionVotes

YES

5791

4783

How will Venezuela be classified in The Economist's 2027 Democracy Index?

Jan 3, 12:27 PMJan 30, 11:59 PM

8010795

OptionProbability

Authoritarian regime

Hybrid regime

Flawed democracy

Full democracy

Will the United States degrade into a 'Hybrid Regime' on the Economist Democracy Index before 2040?

Jun 20, 10:38 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

44.34%chance

344924

OptionVotes

YES

1120

892

Will the Economist Intelligent Unit stop classifying the United States as a democracy before 2030?

Mar 28, 8:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.74%chance

214767

OptionVotes

YES

2882

347

Which Party will the Economist endorse in the next UK General Election?

Apr 1, 11:44 AMJul 30, 10:59 PM

193986

OptionProbability

Liberal Democrats

Conservatives

Labour

A coalition of some description

No Party

Other

Green Party

Reform UK

Will Michele Boldrin (Italian economist & professor) partecipate at the next elections in Italy?

Apr 15, 5:50 PMOct 21, 10:59 PM

24.33%chance

212416

OptionVotes

YES

1009

922

Will the WSJ, NYT, FT, or Economist create a market on Manifold by 2030?

Oct 29, 5:04 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20.62%chance

292141

OptionVotes

YES

1762

673

Czechia's Economist Democracy Index score

May 16, 9:56 PMJan 1, 10:42 PM

1383

OptionProbability

7.0 - 7.999

6.0 - 6.999

8.0 - 8.999

5.0 - 5.999

9.0 - 10.000

4.0 - 4.999

Below 4

Roland Fryer [Harvard Economist] Multiple Choice markets (many topics, many market lengths)

Dec 10, 9:05 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

9377

OptionProbability

He moves to another university, away from Harvard by mid 2026

Will he have a child by mid 2026? Best wishes to him and his family

He writes a book which appears on the nytimes bestseller list by mid 2029

He spends at least a year overseas by mid 2029

He wins a Nobel prize by mid 2036

He joins Manifold and is verified by mid 2026

He joins George Mason University by mid 2026

He moves to another university, away from Harvard by mid 2024

He moves to another university, away from Harvard by mid 2025

He retires from academic life by mid 2024

Harvard withdraws or softens the results of the investigations which found against him by mid 2025

Harvard apologizes for the claims against him and admits they were without merit by mid 2025

By 2028, will economists attribute a visible break in US economic or productivity trends to AI?

Aug 1, 4:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

28.9%chance

8268

OptionVotes

YES

123

If this person is leader of the Labour Party going into the next UK general election, will the Economist endorse Labour?

Apr 30, 10:32 PMMay 1, 11:59 PM

7200

OptionProbability

Wes Streeting

Keir Starmer

Al Carns

Ed Miliband

Andy Burnham

Angela Rayner

Will the Economist Democracy Index of India in 2027 be above 7?

Jul 25, 3:13 PMJun 1, 10:59 PM

42.91%chance

7105

OptionVotes

YES

115

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Prediction markets for Economist

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

How will Venezuela be classified in The Economist's 2027 Democracy Index?

Will the United States degrade into a 'Hybrid Regime' on the Economist Democracy Index before 2040?

Will the Economist Intelligent Unit stop classifying the United States as a democracy before 2030?

Which Party will the Economist endorse in the next UK General Election?

Will Michele Boldrin (Italian economist & professor) partecipate at the next elections in Italy?

Will the WSJ, NYT, FT, or Economist create a market on Manifold by 2030?

Czechia's Economist Democracy Index score

Roland Fryer [Harvard Economist] Multiple Choice markets (many topics, many market lengths)

By 2028, will economists attribute a visible break in US economic or productivity trends to AI?

If this person is leader of the Labour Party going into the next UK general election, will the Economist endorse Labour?

Will the Economist Democracy Index of India in 2027 be above 7?

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