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Prediction markets for EF

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

42%chance

597582583

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3222

1451

Is the "100% effective against solid tumors" cancer pill AOH1996 paper legit? [see description]

Aug 2, 10:37 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

23.63%chance

48090212

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7394

4937

Will there be 10 new effective altruist billionaires in the next 5 years?

Jul 1, 12:42 AMJul 1, 4:59 AM

23.07%chance

24448806

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2006

1653

Will the effective altruism movement be more popular at close (2027) than as of market creation (2022)?

Oct 21, 3:29 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

67.62%chance

13311375

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2266

1908

Effective Altruist organization commits serious human rights abuses "for the greater good" before 2035

Nov 30, 10:02 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

20.78%chance

559461

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3422

3106

Which February 2026 Nasdaq-100 rule changes will take effect before 2027?

Feb 26, 3:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36680

OptionProbability

Fast Entry for large new listings

Use of full market cap (including unlisted share classes) for eligibility ranking

Top-125 replacement rule

5× low-free-float weighting multiplier

Removal of the 10% minimum free float requirement

Quarterly-only share updates

77

72

72

70

70

70

Will the Effective Altruism movement continue to exist in 2035?

Jan 14, 12:24 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

87.8%chance

875712

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3425

1185

Will Warren Buffet family's yet-to-be-named ~$127B charitable trust donate to any Effective Altruist orgs prior to 2030?

Jul 2, 9:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

34.79%chance

141630

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1809

1260

Will LOY-001 establish efficacy?

Dec 12, 5:18 PMDec 20, 7:59 AM

17.18%chance

24865

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1906

1905

Will there be an academic paper written on the total effect of microplastics on human IQ loss by 2026? (in the same way there are papers written on organophosphate pesticides and air pollution on human IQ loss)?

Jan 7, 7:22 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49.98%chance

13533

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1290

481

Effective Altruism stock [permanent]

Mar 16, 6:55 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

70.68%chance

21368

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1030

977

Will trials show DDL-920 effectiveness in humans?

Aug 9, 7:22 AMAug 16, 6:59 PM

50.51%chance

4150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1078

1062

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