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Prediction markets for Electoral

🇺🇸 If Trump wins, will the US electoral democracy index fall below 0.80 by 2025?

Mar 11, 3:59 PMNov 2, 4:59 AM

78.77%chance

258312

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1392

852

Will either the 2024 or 2028 US presidential election result in an Electoral College tie?

Apr 2, 4:51 PMDec 1, 12:00 PM

4.4%chance

305507

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1905

915

Will JD Vance refuse to certify any electoral college votes in the 2028 election?

Jul 16, 5:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

10%chance

182665

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3000

333

Will there be an electoral college majority in the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Aug 11, 4:52 PMDec 15, 4:59 AM

90.42%chance

122205

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3072

325

Will the US abolish the Electoral College for presidential elections by 2040?

Oct 29, 5:56 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11.3%chance

151934

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1658

851

Will any US Presidential candidate get more than 97% of the electoral vote by 2100?

Oct 11, 6:49 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

22.37%chance

12826

OptionVotes

YES

NO

997

988

Will a Democrat have the Electoral College advantage in any of the next three elections (2024, 2028, or 2032)?

May 4, 5:22 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

58.47%chance

16762

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1015

947

Will the US effectively abolish the Electoral College for presidential elections by 2040?

Oct 29, 12:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

18.61%chance

27665

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1235

906

Will faithless electors change a US Presidential election outcome in the 21st century?

Aug 22, 9:07 PMDec 31, 12:00 PM

37.45%chance

16510

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1166

412

Will Nebraska change it’s electoral college to winner take all before the end of 2026?

Sep 21, 6:17 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

31.61%chance

6482

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1471

680

[Metaculus] Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach majority in the Electoral college before 2030?

Nov 7, 2:31 PMJan 2, 8:00 AM

16.47%chance

12384

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1107

961

Te Pati Maori win 3 or more electorates in next NZ election?

Nov 11, 4:20 AMNov 30, 11:59 AM

43.36%chance

463

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1028

977

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