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Prediction markets for Electoral

Which Party will win the Mt Albert electorate in the 2026 NZ General election?

Jul 20, 5:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

728800

OptionProbability

Labour - Helen White

Opportunity - Qiulae Wong

National - Melissa Lee

Other

97

1

1

1

Will either the 2024 or 2028 US presidential election result in an Electoral College tie?

Apr 2, 4:51 PMDec 1, 12:00 PM

4.4%chance

305507

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1905

915

Will JD Vance refuse to certify any electoral college votes in the 2028 election?

Jul 16, 5:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

10%chance

182665

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3000

333

Will there be an electoral college majority in the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Aug 11, 4:52 PMDec 15, 4:59 AM

90.42%chance

122205

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3072

325

Will the US abolish the Electoral College for presidential elections by 2040?

Oct 29, 5:56 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

13.17%chance

161964

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1442

881

Will Nebraska change it’s electoral college to winner take all before the end of 2026?

Sep 21, 6:17 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

15.66%chance

81332

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2321

431

Will a Democrat have the Electoral College advantage in any of the next three elections (2024, 2028, or 2032)?

May 4, 5:22 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

44.76%chance

161012

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1265

679

Will any US Presidential candidate get more than 97% of the electoral vote by 2100?

Oct 11, 6:49 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

22.37%chance

12826

OptionVotes

YES

NO

997

988

[Metaculus] Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach majority in the Electoral college before 2030?

Nov 7, 2:31 PMJan 2, 8:00 AM

52%chance

15800

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2817

1776

Will the US effectively abolish the Electoral College for presidential elections by 2040?

Oct 29, 12:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

18.61%chance

27665

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1235

906

Will faithless electors change a US Presidential election outcome in the 21st century?

Aug 22, 9:07 PMDec 31, 12:00 PM

37.45%chance

16510

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1166

412

How many electoral votes will the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee win?

Nov 5, 11:13 PMNov 8, 12:00 PM

00

OptionProbability

230–269

270–299

300–329

360 or more

330–359

200–229

Under 200

19

19

19

15

14

8

5

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