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Top stories

NYT Essay Urging Senate, Electoral College Overhaul Sparks Conservative Furor

US Domestic Policy

NYT Essay Urging Senate, Electoral College Overhaul Sparks Conservative Furor

Authors

13

1 year ago

Democrats Debate 2028 Primary Calendar as Iowa Eyes Rogue Caucus Amid 4.5 Million Voter Deficit and 2030 Census Shift

Democrats Debate 2028 Primary Calendar as Iowa Eyes Rogue Caucus Amid 4.5 Million Voter Deficit and 2030 Census Shift

Authors

20

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Electoral College

Who will be voted President of the United States by the Electoral College in 2028?

Oct 8, 10:24 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

4416453

OptionProbability

Other

J.D. Vance

Gavin Newsom

Marco Rubio

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Kamala Harris

Josh Shapiro

Gretchen Whitmer

Ron DeSantis

Donald Trump

Nikki Haley

Tulsi Gabbard

Ruben Gallego

35

21

10

10

9

3

3

2

2

2

1

1

1

Will either the 2024 or 2028 US presidential election result in an Electoral College tie?

Apr 2, 4:51 PMDec 1, 12:00 PM

4.4%chance

305507

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1905

915

Will JD Vance refuse to certify any electoral college votes in the 2028 election?

Jul 16, 5:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

10%chance

182665

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3000

333

Will there be an electoral college majority in the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Aug 11, 4:52 PMDec 15, 4:59 AM

90.42%chance

122205

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3072

325

Will the US abolish the Electoral College for presidential elections by 2040?

Oct 29, 5:56 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

13.17%chance

161964

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1442

881

Will Nebraska change it’s electoral college to winner take all before the end of 2026?

Sep 21, 6:17 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

15.66%chance

81332

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2321

431

Will a Democrat have the Electoral College advantage in any of the next three elections (2024, 2028, or 2032)?

May 4, 5:22 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

44.76%chance

161012

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1265

679

[Metaculus] Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach majority in the Electoral college before 2030?

Nov 7, 2:31 PMJan 2, 8:00 AM

52%chance

15800

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2817

1776

Will the US effectively abolish the Electoral College for presidential elections by 2040?

Oct 29, 12:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

18.61%chance

27665

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1235

906

Will the Electoral College be actually or functionally abolished before the 2032 election?

Aug 19, 6:53 PMNov 3, 6:59 AM

21.95%chance

7275

OptionVotes

YES

NO

189

53

Open Answer: What will be the (absolute) Electoral College margin in the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Jan 9, 4:34 PMDec 18, 10:59 PM

4135

OptionProbability

180 or fewer (0-180)

160 or fewer (0-160)

140 or fewer (0-140)

120 or fewer (0-120)

100 or fewer (0-100)

80 or fewer (0-80)

60 or fewer (0-60)

40 or fewer (0-40)

20 or fewer (0-20)

More than 180 (181+)

84

69

65

61

46

41

37

34

20

16

Will there be an Electoral College tie by 2049?

Jul 26, 5:34 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

14.72%chance

5106

OptionVotes

YES

NO

231

95

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