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Top stories

NYT Essay Urging Senate, Electoral College Overhaul Sparks Conservative Furor

US Domestic Policy

NYT Essay Urging Senate, Electoral College Overhaul Sparks Conservative Furor

Authors

13

9 months ago

Democrats Debate 2028 Primary Calendar as Iowa Eyes Rogue Caucus Amid 4.5 Million Voter Deficit and 2030 Census Shift

Democrats Debate 2028 Primary Calendar as Iowa Eyes Rogue Caucus Amid 4.5 Million Voter Deficit and 2030 Census Shift

Authors

20

9 months ago

Prediction markets for Electoral College

Will either the 2024 or 2028 US presidential election result in an Electoral College tie?

Apr 2, 4:51 PMDec 1, 12:00 PM

4.4%chance

305507

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1905

915

Will JD Vance refuse to certify any electoral college votes in the 2028 election?

Jul 16, 5:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

10%chance

182665

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3000

333

Will there be an electoral college majority in the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Aug 11, 4:52 PMDec 15, 4:59 AM

90.42%chance

122205

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3072

325

Will the US abolish the Electoral College for presidential elections by 2040?

Oct 29, 5:56 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11.3%chance

151934

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1658

851

Will a Democrat have the Electoral College advantage in any of the next three elections (2024, 2028, or 2032)?

May 4, 5:22 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

58.47%chance

16762

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1015

947

Will the US effectively abolish the Electoral College for presidential elections by 2040?

Oct 29, 12:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

18.61%chance

27665

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1235

906

Will Nebraska change it’s electoral college to winner take all before the end of 2026?

Sep 21, 6:17 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

31.61%chance

6482

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1471

680

[Metaculus] Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach majority in the Electoral college before 2030?

Nov 7, 2:31 PMJan 2, 8:00 AM

20.6%chance

13434

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1011

885

Open Answer: What will be the (absolute) Electoral College margin in the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Jan 9, 4:34 PMDec 18, 10:59 PM

4135

OptionProbability

180 or fewer (0-180)

160 or fewer (0-160)

140 or fewer (0-140)

120 or fewer (0-120)

100 or fewer (0-100)

80 or fewer (0-80)

60 or fewer (0-60)

40 or fewer (0-40)

20 or fewer (0-20)

More than 180 (181+)

84

69

65

61

46

41

37

34

20

16

Which change will happen first in the methods states use choose electors for the Electoral College?

Apr 19, 5:49 AMApr 26, 6:59 AM

7115

OptionProbability

One or more states switch from winner-take-all to proportional

Nebraska and/or Maine switches from proportional to winner-take-all

The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact takes effect

No changes by 2050

Other

Electoral College is abolished

35

21

21

8

8

7

Will there be an Electoral College tie by 2049?

Jul 26, 5:34 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

14.72%chance

5106

OptionVotes

YES

NO

231

95

If a Democrat wins the Presidency while losing the popular vote, will Republicans turn against the Electoral College?

Feb 21, 3:34 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

59.33%chance

646

OptionVotes

NO

YES

157

107

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