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Prediction markets for Electric

Will 50% of all new car sales in the United States be electric by 2030?

Oct 30, 4:19 AMJan 7, 4:59 AM

27.9%chance

155163363

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1541

679

Will the majority of new cars sold be electric vehicles by the end of 2030?

Sep 1, 11:59 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

46.26%chance

456133058

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3402

2716

Will the majority of new cars sold worldwide be electric before the end of 2030?

Apr 21, 8:36 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

52%chance

326121196

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1004

972

Will LFP batteries account for more than 65% of global electric vehicle battery production (by GWh) in 2026?

Mar 21, 2:23 AMDec 31, 5:00 AM

39.95%chance

1412824

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12260

8157

Will Helion Energy deliver 50 MW of fusion-generated electricity to Microsoft before 2029?

May 10, 8:52 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

6%chance

458578

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6424

690

Will the WA SWIS annual average wholesale electricity price for calendar year 2027 exceed 90 AUD per MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

25.33%chance

53536

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13504

8507

Will the MISO Indiana annual average wholesale electricity price for calendar year 2027 exceed 52 USD per MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

32.76%chance

43511

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12331

8645

Will the OMIE Spain annual average wholesale electricity price for calendar year 2027 exceed 60 EUR per MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

55.17%chance

52059

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10149

9814

Will more than 5% of UK electricity be supplied by fossil fuels in 2030?

Jul 21, 10:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.69%chance

211798

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1516

660

Will consumer electricity be too cheap to meter by 2100?

Feb 23, 2:49 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

27.69%chance

17941

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1014

791

By Dec 31, 2035, will any nuclear fusion power plant have delivered at least 100 MW of net electrical power, 30 day ave.

Oct 3, 11:21 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

10.57%chance

5333

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10062

9455

Which country will next change its national electrical frequency after 2025?

Aug 22, 11:27 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Japan

South Korea

Philippines

Other

25

25

25

25

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