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Prediction markets for Electric AI

Will there be an electric* passenger airliner in commercial operation before 2028?

Jul 27, 3:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.18%chance

8611268

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1816

965

100GW AI training run before 2031?

Jun 10, 10:00 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.94%chance

155447

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1427

701

Will a tech company buy an aluminum smelting company before 2030?

Jun 5, 2:49 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

25.64%chance

213906

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1703

587

Will there be a massive catastrophe caused by AI before 2030?

Oct 10, 1:58 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

24.31%chance

363738

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1765

567

Will AI-linked nuclear power deals total 15 GW by EOY2026?

Jul 1, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.12%chance

113641

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11967

8356

Will Taylor Swift use an electric plane for the majority of her air travel by 2035?

Mar 15, 8:21 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

12.02%chance

13827

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1362

906

Will any electric or hydrogen passenger airplane that can seat at least 100 people be in commercial use before 2033?

Feb 7, 9:15 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

30.19%chance

13756

OptionVotes

NO

YES

960

946

By 2040, will it be possible to take an electric VTOL aircraft on a trip of at least 75 miles for less than $100

Jan 7, 6:00 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.78%chance

15570

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1188

916

Will Ai pervade every aspect of the real world before 2030, like electricity?

Aug 4, 4:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.01%chance

28520

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1002

988

Will there be a credible report that compute for AIs is consuming at least 10% of the world electricity by 2030?

Jun 9, 5:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.6%chance

7295

OptionVotes

YES

NO

241

66

Will there be a credible report that compute for AIs is consuming at least 50% of the world electricity by 2040?

Jun 9, 5:08 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25.8%chance

697

OptionVotes

YES

NO

156

85

In which decade was the American Institute of Electrical Engineers (AIEE) founded?

Oct 21, 10:22 AM

30

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