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Prediction markets for Electrical

Will 50% of all new car sales in the United States be electric by 2030?

Oct 30, 4:19 AMJan 7, 4:59 AM

27.9%chance

155163363

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1541

679

Will the majority of new cars sold be electric vehicles by the end of 2030?

Sep 1, 11:59 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

45.37%chance

455133008

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3461

2666

Will the majority of new cars sold worldwide be electric before the end of 2030?

Apr 21, 8:36 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

53.05%chance

326120930

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1026

952

Will fusion provide >2% of US electrical power before 2050?

May 27, 9:10 PMDec 31, 7:11 PM

35.64%chance

7262178

OptionVotes

NO

YES

992

946

Will LFP batteries account for more than 65% of global electric vehicle battery production (by GWh) in 2026?

Mar 21, 2:23 AMDec 31, 5:00 AM

44.59%chance

1211320

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11147

8971

Will Helion Energy deliver 50 MW of fusion-generated electricity to Microsoft before 2029?

May 10, 8:52 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

11.44%chance

455832

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4128

898

Will the WA SWIS annual average wholesale electricity price for calendar year 2027 exceed 90 AUD per MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

25.33%chance

53536

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13504

8507

Will the MISO Indiana annual average wholesale electricity price for calendar year 2027 exceed 52 USD per MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

32.76%chance

43511

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12331

8645

Will the OMIE Spain annual average wholesale electricity price for calendar year 2027 exceed 60 EUR per MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

55.17%chance

52059

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10149

9814

Will more than 5% of UK electricity be supplied by fossil fuels in 2030?

Jul 21, 10:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.69%chance

211798

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1516

660

Will consumer electricity be too cheap to meter by 2100?

Feb 23, 2:49 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

27.69%chance

17941

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1014

791

Which country will next change its national electrical frequency after 2025?

Aug 22, 11:27 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Japan

South Korea

Philippines

Other

25

25

25

25

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