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Prediction markets for Electrical

Will 50% of all new car sales in the United States be electric by 2030?

Oct 30, 4:19 AMJan 7, 4:59 AM

24.9%chance

153161899

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1673

632

Will the majority of new cars sold be electric vehicles by the end of 2030?

Sep 1, 11:59 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

49.08%chance

449130846

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3222

2880

Will the majority of new cars sold worldwide be electric before the end of 2030?

Apr 21, 8:36 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

46.38%chance

322112496

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1085

895

Will fusion provide >2% of US electrical power before 2050?

May 27, 9:10 PMDec 31, 7:11 PM

35.64%chance

7162156

OptionVotes

NO

YES

992

946

Will electric vehicles account for a majority of new light vehicles purchased in the United States by 2030?

Aug 16, 2:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24.79%chance

7147619

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1686

588

Will there be an electric* passenger airliner in commercial operation before 2028?

Jul 27, 3:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.18%chance

8611268

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1816

965

Will Helion Energy deliver 50 MW of fusion-generated electricity to Microsoft before 2029?

May 10, 8:52 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

17.66%chance

414675

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3003

1084

Will LFP batteries account for more than 65% of global electric vehicle battery production (by GWh) in 2026?

Mar 21, 2:23 AMDec 31, 5:00 AM

35.23%chance

54582

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13560

7375

Will more than 5% of UK electricity be supplied by fossil fuels in 2030?

Jul 21, 10:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.52%chance

211648

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1666

600

In 10 years, will the USA have an average cost of electricity below 1/10th of its current price?

May 8, 2:50 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

10.58%chance

261257

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1288

922

Will consumer electricity be too cheap to meter by 2100?

Feb 23, 2:49 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

27.69%chance

17941

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1014

791

Which country will next change its national electrical frequency after 2025?

Aug 22, 11:27 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Japan

South Korea

Philippines

Other

25

25

25

25

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