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Prediction markets for Electronic Technologies

Will Israel return Lebanon/Hezbollah to the stone age before 2028?

Dec 27, 7:27 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

9.66%chance

243458

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1923

829

In what year will China establish a domestic semiconductor supply chain that is not vulnerable to sanctions?

Mar 28, 12:27 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

182065

Which positive news will make 2025 world-wide headlines?

Jan 4, 4:58 PMJan 11, 10:59 PM

11879

OptionProbability

Space Exploration

Technology

Medical/Healthcare

Fundamental research

Geopolitics

Environment and sustainability

Disaster Relief / Humanitarian Aid

Society

Art and culture

Human Rights

Economy

79

73

67

65

65

59

50

50

45

45

35

By what year will non-invasive brain-computer interfaces for general consumers be used by more than 1 million people?

Dec 30, 6:54 PMDec 30, 12:00 AM

8.57%chance

9335

OptionProbability

NO

YES

395

333

If the Take It Down Act becomes law, will it be used against satirists or journalists?

Mar 17, 4:13 PMMay 21, 6:59 AM

53.04%chance

7325

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1063

941

Does any organization, as of 6 May, 2023, have the capability to engage in practical time-travel?

May 8, 1:46 PMMay 9, 3:59 AM

6.5%chance

6230

OptionVotes

YES

NO

400

124

By what year will Adobe officially support Photoshop on Linux?

Sep 1, 11:00 PMJan 9, 4:59 AM

5187

OptionProbability

2030+ or never

End of 2029

End of 2028

End of 2027

End of 2026

End of 2025

65

37

28

22

12

2

Full mouse connectome reconstructed by when?

May 27, 3:44 PMMay 27, 3:38 PM

5181

If we had an AI in the 2020s that could exactly duplicate a strawberry, would that destroy the world? (In 2050-hindsight)

Feb 22, 4:00 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

50.91%chance

7150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

178

156

What year will 3D TVs make a comeback

Jul 29, 8:19 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

3120

OptionProbability

Other

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2026

2024

2025

62

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

3

2

2

Will connectomics data generation costs drop below $1 million per cubic millimeter by 2027?

Jul 3, 6:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.2%chance

4116

OptionVotes

YES

NO

112

89

[Metaculus] Will a exascale volume of connectome be mapped and revealed to the public by June 2031?

Nov 7, 2:29 PMJun 2, 7:00 AM

57.75%chance

210

OptionVotes

NO

YES

80

62

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