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Prediction markets for Electronic Technologies

Will Israel return Lebanon/Hezbollah to the stone age before 2028?

Dec 27, 7:27 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

9.51%chance

253598

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1951

826

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.44%chance

213540

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1033

971

If the Take It Down Act becomes law, will it be used against satirists or journalists?

Mar 17, 4:13 PMMay 21, 6:59 AM

50.46%chance

8375

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

991

By what year will non-invasive brain-computer interfaces for general consumers be used by more than 1 million people?

Dec 30, 6:54 PMDec 30, 12:00 AM

8.57%chance

9335

OptionProbability

NO

YES

395

333

Does any organization, as of 6 May, 2023, have the capability to engage in practical time-travel?

May 8, 1:46 PMMay 9, 3:59 AM

6.5%chance

6230

OptionVotes

YES

NO

400

124

Full mouse connectome reconstructed by when?

May 27, 3:44 PMMay 27, 3:38 PM

5186

OptionProbability

2030-2035

Before 2030

2035-2040

2040-2045

After 2045

65

37

37

18

12

If we had an AI in the 2020s that could exactly duplicate a strawberry, would that destroy the world? (In 2050-hindsight)

Feb 22, 4:00 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

53.76%chance

8160

OptionVotes

YES

NO

169

166

What year will 3D TVs make a comeback

Jul 29, 8:19 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

3120

OptionProbability

Other

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2026

2024

2025

62

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

3

2

2

Will connectomics data generation costs drop below $1 million per cubic millimeter by 2027?

Jul 3, 6:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.2%chance

4116

OptionVotes

YES

NO

112

89

Will the KAI KF-21 have entered service in South Korea or Indonesia by the end of 2027?

Jun 14, 8:05 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

67%chance

450

OptionVotes

NO

YES

93

54

[Metaculus] Will a exascale volume of connectome be mapped and revealed to the public by June 2031?

Nov 7, 2:29 PMJun 2, 7:00 AM

57.75%chance

210

OptionVotes

NO

YES

80

62

Will the HAL AMCA have entered service in India by the end of 2035?

Jun 6, 9:35 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

59.02%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

80

62

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