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Prediction markets for Electronic Technologies

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.58%chance

233790

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1073

935

Will Israel return Lebanon/Hezbollah to the stone age before 2028?

Dec 27, 7:27 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

10.18%chance

253691

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1837

839

In what year will China establish a domestic semiconductor supply chain that is not vulnerable to sanctions?

Mar 28, 12:27 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

182071

OptionProbability

2030-2034

2035-2039

2040-2044

2025-2029

2045-2050

48

16

16

13

7

If the Take It Down Act becomes law, will it be used against satirists or journalists?

Mar 17, 4:13 PMMay 21, 6:59 AM

50.46%chance

8375

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

991

By what year will non-invasive brain-computer interfaces for general consumers be used by more than 1 million people?

Dec 30, 6:54 PMDec 30, 12:00 AM

8.57%chance

9335

OptionProbability

NO

YES

395

333

Does any organization, as of 6 May, 2023, have the capability to engage in practical time-travel?

May 8, 1:46 PMMay 9, 3:59 AM

6.5%chance

6230

OptionVotes

YES

NO

400

124

By what year will Adobe officially support Photoshop on Linux?

Sep 1, 11:00 PMJan 9, 4:59 AM

5187

OptionProbability

2030+ or never

End of 2029

End of 2028

End of 2027

End of 2026

End of 2025

65

37

28

22

12

2

Full mouse connectome reconstructed by when?

May 27, 3:44 PMMay 27, 3:38 PM

5186

OptionProbability

2030-2035

Before 2030

2035-2040

2040-2045

After 2045

65

37

37

18

12

If we had an AI in the 2020s that could exactly duplicate a strawberry, would that destroy the world? (In 2050-hindsight)

Feb 22, 4:00 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

53.76%chance

8160

OptionVotes

YES

NO

169

166

Will connectomics data generation costs drop below $1 million per cubic millimeter by 2027?

Jul 3, 6:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.2%chance

4116

OptionVotes

YES

NO

112

89

Will the KAI KF-21 have entered service in South Korea or Indonesia by the end of 2027?

Jun 14, 8:05 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

67%chance

450

OptionVotes

NO

YES

93

54

Will the HAL AMCA have entered service in India by the end of 2035?

Jun 6, 9:35 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

59.02%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

80

62

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