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Prediction markets for Electronic Technologies

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.89%chance

253805

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1088

922

Will Israel return Lebanon/Hezbollah to the stone age before 2028?

Dec 27, 7:27 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

9.96%chance

253695

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1872

835

Will Sm2Co17 sintered magnet (Western) commercial price exceed 300 USD/kg on September 30, 2027?

Apr 8, 2:30 PMSep 30, 4:00 AM

69.56%chance

73428

OptionVotes

NO

YES

7011

3990

In what year will China establish a domestic semiconductor supply chain that is not vulnerable to sanctions?

Mar 28, 12:27 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

182071

OptionProbability

2030-2034

2035-2039

2040-2044

2025-2029

2045-2050

48

16

16

13

7

If the Take It Down Act becomes law, will it be used against satirists or journalists?

Mar 17, 4:13 PMMay 21, 6:59 AM

50.46%chance

8375

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

991

By what year will non-invasive brain-computer interfaces for general consumers be used by more than 1 million people?

Dec 30, 6:54 PMDec 30, 12:00 AM

8.57%chance

9335

OptionProbability

NO

YES

395

333

Full mouse connectome reconstructed by when?

May 27, 3:44 PMMay 27, 3:38 PM

5186

OptionProbability

2030-2035

Before 2030

2035-2040

2040-2045

After 2045

65

37

37

18

12

What year will 3D TVs make a comeback

Jul 29, 8:19 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

3120

OptionProbability

Other

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2026

2024

2025

62

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

3

2

2

Will CBMM Araxá high-purity Nb2O5 nameplate capacity exceed 500 tpa on December 31, 2026?

Mar 30, 9:46 PMDec 31, 5:00 AM

79.28%chance

160

OptionVotes

NO

YES

160

78

Will CBMM Araxá high-purity Nb2O5 nameplate capacity exceed 10000 tpa on December 31, 2026?

Mar 30, 9:47 PMDec 31, 5:00 AM

71.35%chance

251

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

1

Will CBMM Araxá high-purity Nb2O5 nameplate capacity exceed 2500 tpa on December 31, 2026?

Mar 30, 9:46 PMDec 31, 5:00 AM

72.48%chance

150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

150

10

Will CBMM Araxá high-purity Nb2O5 nameplate capacity exceed 5000 tpa on December 31, 2026?

Mar 30, 9:46 PMDec 31, 5:00 AM

26.15%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

16

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