Elis News

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

Jul 21, 6:56 PMJul 19, 6:59 AM

94.86%chance

9499316662

OptionVotes

YES

24774

8443

Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year?

Dec 8, 4:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

126117794

OptionProbability

Other

Epstein

Donald Trump and/or JD Vance

Artificial Intelligence Itself (Including ChatGPT or any other variation)

Zohran Mamdani

Mark Carney

The People of Minnesota (and other variations)

Xi Jinping

Pope Leo XIV (Robert Prevost)

Jerome Powell

Jensen Huang

Self Driving Cars (Uber, Waymo, etc.)

Sam Altman

Benjamin Netanyahu

Ozempic (Including "Semiglutide", "GLPs", "Eli Lily", etc )

[Next FOMC Chair]

Robots (not self driving cars)

Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year?

Nov 30, 7:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14387938

OptionProbability

Other

Donald Trump and/or JD Vance

Artificial Intelligence Itself (Including 'ChatGPT', 'Gemini', etc)

Xi Jinping

Vladimir Putin

Elon Musk

Zohran Mamdani

Sam Altman

Gavin Newsom

Pope Leo XIV (Robert Prevost)

Gen Z

Jeffrey Epstein

Self Driving Cars (Including 'Waymo', 'Uber', etc)

Marco Rubio

Benjamin Netanyahu

AOC

Jerome Powell

Sydney Sweeney

Demis Hassabis

Larry Ellison

Jensen Huang

Ozempic (Including "Semiglutide", "GLPs", "Eli Lily", etc )

Nicholas Maduro

Mark Zuckerberg

Dario Amodei

Lisa Su

Fei-Fei Li

Humanoid Robots (Including 'Optimus', 'Atlas', etc)

Millenials

Gen X

Baby Boomers

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Scott Bessent

Sundar Pichai

Narendra Modi

Ursula von der Leyen

Jasmine Crockett

Graham Platner

Kevin Hassett

Gen Alpha

Claudia Sheinbaum

Cryptocurrency (Including 'Bitcoin', 'Etherium', etc)

Ahmed al-Sharaa

At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?

Mar 14, 8:29 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

59%chance

21850691

OptionVotes

YES

2438

1249

Will Elie Hassenfeld (Co-Founder and CEO of GiveWell) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Jan 23, 2:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.74%chance

121155

OptionVotes

YES

1617

939

Will David A. Ricks (CEO of Eli Lilly) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

Mar 29, 2:02 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.47%chance

5191

OptionVotes

YES

272

Eli Jang stocks

May 4, 12:25 AMMay 4, 3:59 AM

2168

OptionProbability

YES

218

Will Eli Manning be inducted into the NFL Hall of Fame by 2030?

Feb 7, 6:43 AMMar 2, 4:59 AM

79%chance

5121

OptionVotes

YES

194

Will Eli Manning and Abby Mcgrew still be together at the end of 2026?

Jul 14, 4:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80.63%chance

3110

OptionVotes

YES

204

Will eli ehrlick be prosecuted by the DOJ for supplying people with hrt?

Feb 14, 5:24 PMFeb 21, 11:59 PM

40.27%chance

597

OptionVotes

YES

230

Will Eli Lilly’s reported Q1 2026 tirzepatide sales (Zepbound/Mounjaro) show >50% YoY growth?

Jan 12, 12:37 AMMay 15, 11:59 PM

67.38%chance

258

OptionVotes

YES

344

270

Spikeball: Hawken and Forrest vs Connor and Eli

Jan 26, 12:18 AMMay 16, 11:17 PM

OptionProbability

Hawken and Forrest

Eli and Connor

Elis News

Prediction markets for Elis

Prediction markets for Elis

Prediction markets for Elis

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year?

Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year?

At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?

Will Elie Hassenfeld (Co-Founder and CEO of GiveWell) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Will David A. Ricks (CEO of Eli Lilly) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

Eli Jang stocks

Will Eli Manning be inducted into the NFL Hall of Fame by 2030?

Will Eli Manning and Abby Mcgrew still be together at the end of 2026?

Will eli ehrlick be prosecuted by the DOJ for supplying people with hrt?

Will Eli Lilly’s reported Q1 2026 tirzepatide sales (Zepbound/Mounjaro) show >50% YoY growth?

Spikeball: Hawken and Forrest vs Connor and Eli

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