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Prediction markets for Elis

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

Jul 21, 6:56 PMJul 19, 6:59 AM

93.02%chance

8707785819

OptionVotes

NO

YES

18686

8824

If Eliezer Yudkowsky charitably reviews my work, he will update his p(doom) to < 0.1. (Below 10%)

Jul 2, 2:25 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21.42%chance

264484823

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10407

7511

Will the US eliminate the Department of Education through law or presidential reorganization before 2026?

Jan 23, 12:35 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

6%chance

5285194

OptionVotes

YES

NO

37235

5859

What will be the largest company in the world by market cap at the start of 2030

Oct 14, 3:23 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

18671385

OptionProbability

Nvidia

Microsoft

Apple

Other

Alphabet

Tesla

OpenAI

Strategy₿ (MSTR)

Amazon

Anthropic

TSMC

Broadcom

Meta

A company that did not exist at the posting of this question

SpaceX

ASML

Saudi Aramco

Tencent

IBM

Baidu

Walmart

Berkshire Hathaway

Intel

Eli Lilly

ByteDance

25

16

14

9

6

6

6

4

3

3

2

2

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?

Mar 14, 8:29 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

51%chance

20846904

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2654

983

Will Elie Hassenfeld (Co-Founder and CEO of GiveWell) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Jan 23, 2:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.74%chance

121155

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1617

939

Will David A. Ricks (CEO of Eli Lilly) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

Mar 29, 2:02 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.47%chance

5191

OptionVotes

YES

NO

272

92

Will Eli Manning be inducted into the NFL Hall of Fame by 2030?

Feb 7, 6:43 AMMar 2, 4:59 AM

79%chance

5121

OptionVotes

NO

YES

194

52

Will Eli Manning and Abby Mcgrew still be together at the end of 2026?

Jul 14, 4:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

79.01%chance

3100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

194

52

Will Eli Weinstein, previously pardoned by Trump, go to prison for fraud again by 2026?

Jul 20, 7:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

59.9%chance

597

OptionVotes

NO

YES

99

82

Will eli ehrlick be prosecuted by the DOJ for supplying people with hrt?

Feb 14, 5:24 PMFeb 21, 11:59 PM

47.32%chance

475

OptionVotes

YES

NO

208

101

Eli Jang stocks

May 4, 12:25 AMMay 4, 3:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

NO

YES

50

50

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