Elis News

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

Jul 21, 6:56 PMJul 19, 6:59 AM

94.24%chance

9719456679

OptionVotes

YES

22335

8583

Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year?

Nov 30, 7:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

166101364

OptionProbability

Other

Donald Trump and/or JD Vance

Artificial Intelligence Itself (Including 'ChatGPT', 'Gemini', etc)

Bad Bunny

Zohran Mamdani

Marco Rubio

Xi Jinping

Benjamin Netanyahu

Elon Musk

Prediction Markets [Or associated person, company, etc]

Sam Altman

Vladimir Putin

Gavin Newsom

Pope Leo XIV (Robert Prevost)

Jeffrey Epstein

Dario Amodei

James Talarico

AOC

Jerome Powell

Sydney Sweeney

Demis Hassabis

Larry Ellison

Jensen Huang

Gen Z

Ozempic (Including "Semiglutide", "GLPs", "Eli Lily", etc )

Nicholas Maduro

Mark Zuckerberg

Self Driving Cars (Including 'Waymo', 'Uber', etc)

Lisa Su

Fei-Fei Li

Humanoid Robots (Including 'Optimus', 'Atlas', etc)

Millenials

Gen X

Baby Boomers

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Scott Bessent

Sundar Pichai

Narendra Modi

Ursula von der Leyen

Jasmine Crockett

Graham Platner

Kevin Hassett

Gen Alpha

Claudia Sheinbaum

Cryptocurrency (Including 'Bitcoin', 'Etherium', etc)

Ahmed al-Sharaa

Jon Ossoff

Kevin Warsh

What will be the largest company in the world by market cap at the start of 2030

Oct 14, 3:23 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

19993324

OptionProbability

Alphabet

Nvidia

Apple

Microsoft

OpenAI

Anthropic

TSMC

Tesla

Amazon

Other

Strategy₿ (MSTR)

Broadcom

At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?

Mar 14, 8:29 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

55%chance

21950798

OptionVotes

YES

2545

1107

Will Elie Hassenfeld (Co-Founder and CEO of GiveWell) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Jan 23, 2:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.74%chance

121155

OptionVotes

YES

1617

939

Will David A. Ricks (CEO of Eli Lilly) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

Mar 29, 2:02 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.47%chance

5191

OptionVotes

YES

272

Eli Jang stocks

May 4, 12:25 AMMay 4, 3:59 AM

2168

OptionProbability

YES

218

Will Eli Manning be inducted into the NFL Hall of Fame by 2030?

Feb 7, 6:43 AMMar 2, 4:59 AM

79%chance

5121

OptionVotes

YES

194

Will Eli Manning and Abby Mcgrew still be together at the end of 2026?

Jul 14, 4:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80.63%chance

3110

OptionVotes

YES

204

Will eli ehrlick be prosecuted by the DOJ for supplying people with hrt?

Feb 14, 5:24 PMFeb 21, 11:59 PM

40.27%chance

597

OptionVotes

YES

230

Will Eli Lilly’s reported Q1 2026 tirzepatide sales (Zepbound/Mounjaro) show >50% YoY growth?

Jan 12, 12:37 AMMay 15, 11:59 PM

67.38%chance

258

OptionVotes

YES

344

270

Spikeball: Hawken and Forrest vs Connor and Eli

Jan 26, 12:18 AMMay 16, 11:17 PM

OptionProbability

Hawken and Forrest

Eli and Connor

Elis News

Prediction markets for Elis

Prediction markets for Elis

Prediction markets for Elis

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year?

What will be the largest company in the world by market cap at the start of 2030

At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?

Will Elie Hassenfeld (Co-Founder and CEO of GiveWell) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Will David A. Ricks (CEO of Eli Lilly) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

Eli Jang stocks

Will Eli Manning be inducted into the NFL Hall of Fame by 2030?

Will Eli Manning and Abby Mcgrew still be together at the end of 2026?

Will eli ehrlick be prosecuted by the DOJ for supplying people with hrt?

Will Eli Lilly’s reported Q1 2026 tirzepatide sales (Zepbound/Mounjaro) show >50% YoY growth?

Spikeball: Hawken and Forrest vs Connor and Eli

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