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Prediction markets for Elis

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

Jul 21, 6:56 PMJul 19, 6:59 AM

93%chance

9118704319

OptionVotes

NO

YES

18636

8827

Who will be TIME Magazine's 2025 Person of the Year?

Dec 6, 1:02 PMDec 11, 7:59 AM

18032266888

OptionProbability

Artificial Intelligence (Including ChatGPT or any other variation)

Jensen Huang

Other

Pope Leo XIV (Robert Prevost)

Sam Altman

Donald Trump and/or JD Vance

Zohran Mamdani

Benjamin Netanyahu

Xi Jinping

Elon Musk

Jerome Powell

Charlie Kirk

Gen Z

Jeffrey Epstein

Ozempic (Including "Semiglutide", "GLPs", "Eli Lily", etc )

Lee Jae Myung

Ahmed Al-Sharaa

[Any variation of "The Victims of War"]

[Any variation of "The Courts"]

[Any variation of "Trump Prosecutors"]

Vladimir Putin

Beyonce

Gavin Newsom

AOC

Sydney Sweeney

Demis Hassabis

Larry Ellison

Prediction Markets [including any founder/s or platform/s by name]

Mark Carney

Sanae Takaichi

Nayib Bukele

Nicolas Maduro

33

19

12

10

6

4

4

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will the US eliminate the Department of Education through law or presidential reorganization before 2026?

Jan 23, 12:35 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

2%chance

58117593

OptionVotes

YES

NO

83919

4213

What will be the largest company in the world by market cap at the start of 2030

Oct 14, 3:23 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

19379169

OptionProbability

Nvidia

Alphabet

Microsoft

Apple

OpenAI

Tesla

Anthropic

Other

Amazon

Strategy₿ (MSTR)

Broadcom

Meta

TSMC

Oracle

A company that did not exist at the posting of this question

SpaceX

ASML

Saudi Aramco

Tencent

IBM

Baidu

Walmart

Berkshire Hathaway

Intel

Eli Lilly

ByteDance

20

18

12

11

7

5

5

4

3

3

3

2

2

2

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?

Mar 14, 8:29 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

52.47%chance

21149369

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2614

1027

Will Elie Hassenfeld (Co-Founder and CEO of GiveWell) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Jan 23, 2:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.74%chance

121155

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1617

939

Will David A. Ricks (CEO of Eli Lilly) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

Mar 29, 2:02 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.47%chance

5191

OptionVotes

YES

NO

272

92

Eli Jang stocks

May 4, 12:25 AMMay 4, 3:59 AM

2168

OptionProbability

NO

YES

218

11

Will Eli Manning be inducted into the NFL Hall of Fame by 2030?

Feb 7, 6:43 AMMar 2, 4:59 AM

79%chance

5121

OptionVotes

NO

YES

194

52

Will Eli Manning and Abby Mcgrew still be together at the end of 2026?

Jul 14, 4:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80.63%chance

3110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

204

49

Will eli ehrlick be prosecuted by the DOJ for supplying people with hrt?

Feb 14, 5:24 PMFeb 21, 11:59 PM

40.27%chance

597

OptionVotes

YES

NO

230

84

Will Eli Weinstein, previously pardoned by Trump, go to prison for fraud again by 2026?

Jul 20, 7:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

59.9%chance

597

OptionVotes

NO

YES

99

82

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