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Prediction markets for Elliptic

Q-Day before 2030?

Apr 1, 9:43 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.2%chance

8888227

OptionVotes

YES

NO

86671

36670

Will a human reach Venus orbit before 2041?

Aug 27, 3:43 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

18.07%chance

646385

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1311

1031

Will a human reach Venus orbit before 2031?

Aug 29, 4:17 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

6.02%chance

395490

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2205

854

There is between the Earth and Mars a china teapot revolving in an elliptical orbit

Apr 5, 7:45 PMApr 5, 8:59 PM

62157

OptionProbability

NO

YES

151

96

When will Starship reach orbit?

Apr 2, 6:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

81601

OptionProbability

Jul-Dec 2026

2027

Apr-Jun 2026

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032+ or never

60

15

11

3

3

3

2

2

Will an EscaPADE Spacecraft reach Mars?

Dec 17, 6:01 AMDec 1, 7:59 AM

84.05%chance

14765

OptionVotes

NO

YES

328

115

Will a human reach Venus orbit before 2201?

Aug 27, 3:44 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

83.16%chance

9248

OptionVotes

NO

YES

292

151

Will a human reach Venus orbit before 2051?

Aug 27, 3:42 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

33.16%chance

10184

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1005

991

Will a human reach Venus orbit before 2101?

Aug 27, 3:43 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

80%chance

4154

OptionVotes

NO

YES

153

86

Will a human reach Venus orbit before 2081?

Aug 27, 3:44 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

76.94%chance

4147

OptionVotes

NO

YES

136

65

Which of the following quantum computing technologies will first succeed in breaking 256-bit Elliptic Curve Encryption?

Nov 30, 1:35 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

8138

OptionProbability

Neutral atoms

Silicon qubits

Superconducting qubits

Trapped ions

Discrete variable photonic

Continuous variable photonic

36

36

9

9

5

5

Will a human reach Venus orbit before 2061?

Aug 27, 3:43 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

51.16%chance

790

OptionVotes

NO

YES

174

120

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