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Prediction markets for Elliptic

Will a human reach Venus orbit before 2041?

Aug 27, 3:43 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

18.07%chance

646385

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1311

1031

Will a human reach Venus orbit before 2031?

Aug 29, 4:17 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

10.37%chance

353790

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1328

929

Will this paper (https://arxiv.org/pdf/2410.00965) get at least 50 citations by the end of 2025?

Oct 3, 4:52 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

11.23%chance

362930

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2811

356

There is between the Earth and Mars a china teapot revolving in an elliptical orbit

Apr 5, 7:45 PMApr 5, 8:59 PM

52153

OptionProbability

NO

YES

147

104

Will an EscaPADE Spacecraft reach Mars?

Dec 17, 6:01 AMDec 24, 7:59 AM

69.51%chance

13358

OptionVotes

NO

YES

190

154

Will a human reach Venus orbit before 2201?

Aug 27, 3:44 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

83.16%chance

9248

OptionVotes

NO

YES

292

151

Will a human reach Venus orbit before 2051?

Aug 27, 3:42 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

33.16%chance

10184

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1005

991

Will a human reach Venus orbit before 2101?

Aug 27, 3:43 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

80%chance

4154

OptionVotes

NO

YES

153

86

Will a human reach Venus orbit before 2081?

Aug 27, 3:44 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

76.94%chance

4147

OptionVotes

NO

YES

136

65

Which of the following quantum computing technologies will first succeed in breaking 256-bit Elliptic Curve Encryption?

Nov 30, 1:35 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

8138

OptionProbability

Neutral atoms

Silicon qubits

Superconducting qubits

Trapped ions

Discrete variable photonic

Continuous variable photonic

36

36

9

9

5

5

Significant attack on post-quantum KEM Kyber published before Nov 2026

Nov 19, 9:38 PMNov 1, 10:59 PM

19.12%chance

4135

OptionVotes

YES

NO

183

45

Will a human reach Venus orbit before 2061?

Aug 27, 3:43 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

51.16%chance

790

OptionVotes

NO

YES

174

120

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