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Prediction markets for Elliptic

Q-Day before 2030?

Apr 1, 9:43 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

17.61%chance

9391489

OptionVotes

YES

NO

88977

36167

Will a human reach Venus orbit before 2041?

Aug 27, 3:43 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

19.12%chance

666463

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1242

1047

Will any of Levent Alpöge’s mathematical results with Claude be proven flawed by the end of the year?

Aug 24, 6:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.39%chance

345784

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1761

568

Will a human reach Venus orbit before 2031?

Aug 29, 4:17 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

5.48%chance

405549

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2401

843

There is between the Earth and Mars a china teapot revolving in an elliptical orbit

Apr 5, 7:45 PMApr 5, 8:59 PM

62157

OptionProbability

NO

YES

151

96

Will an EscaPADE Spacecraft reach Mars?

Dec 17, 6:01 AMDec 1, 7:59 AM

86.85%chance

15777

OptionVotes

NO

YES

379

106

Will AI break blockchain mechanism before EOY ?

Oct 15, 5:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.88%chance

7298

OptionVotes

YES

NO

177

87

Will a human reach Venus orbit before 2051?

Aug 27, 3:42 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

38.16%chance

11259

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1066

869

Will a human reach Venus orbit before 2201?

Aug 27, 3:44 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

83.16%chance

9248

OptionVotes

NO

YES

292

151

Will a human reach Venus orbit before 2061?

Aug 27, 3:43 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

60%chance

9206

OptionVotes

NO

YES

202

97

Will a human reach Venus orbit before 2101?

Aug 27, 3:43 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

80%chance

4154

OptionVotes

NO

YES

153

86

Which of the following quantum computing technologies will first succeed in breaking 256-bit Elliptic Curve Encryption?

Nov 30, 1:35 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

8138

OptionProbability

Neutral atoms

Silicon qubits

Superconducting qubits

Trapped ions

Discrete variable photonic

Continuous variable photonic

36

36

9

9

5

5

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