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Prediction markets for ELO

Which LLM will have the highest ELO at the end of 2025 on ChatBot Arena?

Dec 9, 8:02 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

9789303

OptionProbability

Google

OpenAI

xAI

Anthropic

None listed here

Meta

39

27

12

10

9

3

Will I get to 1000 Elo rapid rating on chess.com in 2025

Jan 4, 2:56 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

84.43%chance

3320256

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2329

429

Will anyone top Magnus Carlsen's peak ELO of 2882 by the end of 2026?

Dec 7, 11:40 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

8.24%chance

405630

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4682

474

Will someone new reach 2800 Elo rating in 2025?

May 18, 12:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.96%chance

195597

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1885

530

Will Magnus Carlsen drop below 2800 Elo at any point before 2026?

May 29, 9:07 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

6.01%chance

185575

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3953

253

GPT5 gets 1500 elo on lmarena.ai?

Apr 1, 1:38 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.08%chance

294270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1019

982

EOY 2025: Will open LLMs perform at least as well as 50 Elo below closed-source LLMs on coding?

Jul 27, 10:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.73%chance

163820

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1538

650

Will Magnus Carlsen have the highest ELO in the world in mid 2026?

Feb 5, 4:47 PMJul 1, 1:00 AM

83.24%chance

121922

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2229

449

Who will develop the first model to reach 1500 ELO on LLMArena Text leaderboard?

Jul 1, 2:33 PMJul 2, 2:27 PM

6987

OptionProbability

Google / Deepmind

OpenAI

Anthropic

Deepseek

X / Grok

Meta

Other

Mistral

Alibaba

Microsoft

38

35

9

3

3

3

3

2

2

2

Will we discover a chess player with ELO > 1500 cheating in an over-the-board chess tournament using anal devices by 2025?

Dec 22, 11:04 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

7.49%chance

21960

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1306

932

Before Feb 2026, will a transformer based reasoning model >1800 elo be able to explain 3+ chess lines at any position?

Jan 28, 10:50 PMFeb 2, 6:59 AM

52.8%chance

5435

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1058

945

Will DauT aoe2 elo go below 2000 by eoy2028

Jul 24, 8:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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