Elsewhere News

Flight 15

Flight 12

2026-04-01

2024-09-01

2025-01-01

2025-07-01

Flight 7

2025-03-01

Flight 10

2026-01-01

Other

*Markdown* formatting in comments and elsewhere

ANTE: Stake on this to subsidize the market.

The ability to look for related markets in the API.

Linkable Comments

Ability to optionally privately enter your expectation of outcome when making a purchase, for the purpose of having a personal calibration curve. Justification: I find that making calibration curves for myself is fun and helps improve my forecasting, and that my calibration curve gets less accurate after a few months if I stop practicing. But the practice takes effort, which could be piggy-backed on the forecasting activity of participating in prediction markets for less effort than doing it seperately.

Ability to include a short message when resolving a market

Reminders. Allow users to set a custom reminder to return to a market.

Spoiler tags to hide markets about in progress fiction

Merge duplicate Answers for multiple Answer Questions https://manifold.markets/Honourary/will-manifold-markets-add-a-merge-f

Ability to tip users M$ for helpful comments.

Ability to short multiple choice answers

Retroactively close a market, undoing bets after the new close time. (Reward predictions before the events happened, not betting really quickly after hearing the news.)

Resolve market to probabilities other than market probabilities. Useful for betting on outcomes of other markets.

Short answers on free response questions

Graph showing the pool size of a market over time

A meta-market. Simple exchange that lets you place a bid/sell order for shares of whatever market.

Set a time to stop allowing creation of new free response answers separately from the market close time

We need numerical range questions. Many topics are way more informative when expressed that way, over a Yes No.

Ability to attach (private) personal notes to other users (e.g. to keep track of who you've observed be a good market resolver)

A "poll" category of market. You can buy as many votes as you want but the payout is unrelated to which answer wins. (Could be zero, could reverse the system so bettors get 4% and the creator gets the balance, or something else.)

Reducing the number of personal questions (eg. "Will I do ...")

Market Indicies, Allowing Multiple Markets to Be Combined Into One and Automatically Weighted with Drag and Drop Type Feature

Show currently placed on market overviews, like https://manifold.markets/markets (it is easy to forget where loans were used)

Allow to exclude communities/tags on feed/market overview. It would be nice to not have ability to skip all this gambling ("yes iff pool divisible by 2" etc)

Allow to exclude communities/tags on feed/market overview. It would be nice to skip all this gambling ("yes iff pool divisible by 2" etc)

Allow users to edit their comments

In "Your Trades", show each market's M$ pool

Reduced fees for long horizon markets to increase trading volume.

Upload photos with comments. Useful for proof of results and other fun things.

I would like there to be a feature that integrates something like an RSS feed. If key words or phrases about specific event occurs, trading is suspended until the market is either resolved or the RSS notification is tagged as a false positive. As what often happens, the gains of many bettors are wiped out by slow resolutions of markets.

Zoom on the chart

Statements

Kelly

The ability to subsidize markets, putting up money to enhance liquidity and encourage participation, without taking a particular side of the bet. (The thing that the ANTE option on this market is trying to do, just in a more formal and less ad-hoc way, which would also work for YES/NO markets.)

Aggregate your own trades in timeline view (avoid long list).

Earn interest on M$ tied up in long time horizon bets.

Trade fractional mana

When creating a free answer market, add a starting set of answers without betting.

Combinatorial Prediction Markets

Ability to delete comments.

Load pages faster (Android mobile).

More explanation for people who don't know anything about prediction markets.

Mechanism for making decisions (built-in bundle of conditional markets?) with better incentives for betters (not beauty contest)

Filter OUT market categories on the homepage.

Private messages to users

Ability to select multiple categories of markets on the home page.

Trusted users can add category tags to markets that aren't their own

User create their own currency

Zen mode: Hide the probabilities from the user until they decide to buy.

Market Scanner (like stock screeners)

#144 – Athena Aktipis on why cancer is actually one of the fundamental phenomena in our universe

#145 – Christopher Brown on why slavery abolition wasn't inevitable

#146 – Robert Long on why large language models like GPT (probably) aren't conscious

#147 – Spencer Greenberg on stopping valueless papers from getting into top journals

#148 – Johannes Ackva on unfashionable climate interventions that work, and fashionable ones that don't

#151 – Ajeya Cotra on accidentally teaching AI models to deceive us

#149 – Tim LeBon on how altruistic perfectionism is self-defeating

#150 – Tom Davidson on how quickly AI could transform the world

#152 – Joe Carlsmith on navigating serious philosophical confusion

#153 – Elie Hassenfeld on two big picture critiques of GiveWell's approach, and six lessons from their recent work

#154 – Rohin Shah on DeepMind and trying to fairly hear out both AI doomers and doubters

#155 – Lennart Heim on the compute governance era and what has to come after

#156 – Markus Anderljung on how to regulate cutting-edge AI models

#157 – Ezra Klein on existential risk from AI and what DC could do about it

#158 – Holden Karnofsky on how AIs might take over even if they're no smarter than humans, and his 4-part playbook for AI risk

#159 – Jan Leike on OpenAI's massive push to make superintelligence safe in 4 years or less

#160 – Hannah Ritchie on why it makes sense to be optimistic about the environment

#161 – Michael Webb on whether AI will soon cause job loss, lower incomes, and higher inequality — or the opposite

#162 – Mustafa Suleyman on getting Washington and Silicon Valley to tame AI

#163 – Toby Ord on the perils of maximising the good that you do

#166 – Tantum Collins on what he's learned as an AI policy insider at the White House, DeepMind and elsewhere

#167 – Seren Kell on the research gaps holding back alternative proteins from mass adoption

#168 – Ian Morris on whether deep history says we're heading for an intelligence explosion

#164 – Kevin Esvelt on cults that want to kill everyone, stealth vs wildfire pandemics, and how he felt inventing gene drives

#165 – Anders Sandberg on war in space, whether civilisations age, and the best things possible in our universe

#169 – Paul Niehaus on whether cash transfers cause economic growth, and keeping theft to acceptable levels

#170 – Santosh Harish on how air pollution is responsible for ~12% of global deaths — and how to get that number down

#171 – Alison Young on how top labs have jeopardised public health with repeated biosafety failures

#172 – Bryan Caplan on why you should stop reading the news

#173 – Jeff Sebo on digital minds, and how to avoid sleepwalking into a major moral catastrophe

#174 – Nita Farahany on the neurotechnology already being used to convict criminals and manipulate workers

#175 – Lucia Coulter on preventing lead poisoning for $1.66 per child

YES

NO

YES

YES

YES

YES

YES

YES

Asia (outside Japan)

South America

Elsewhere (eg Antarctica, Oceania)

Europe

Japan

North America

Africa