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Top stories

UK Ends Drug Pricing Talks With Pharma Over NHS Rebates Amid AstraZeneca Investment Warning and Industry Discount Refusal

UK Ends Drug Pricing Talks With Pharma Over NHS Rebates Amid AstraZeneca Investment Warning and Industry Discount Refusal

Authors

9

4 months ago

Prediction markets for EMA

Will gmail or outlook have a "persuasion detection system" built into their email services by 2025 end?

Apr 23, 12:36 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

12.18%chance

694596

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2592

1018

When will most emails be proofread by AI?

Feb 6, 12:17 AMDec 31, 11:00 PM

30.22%chance

221354

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1275

794

Will 50%+ of the content in my work emails be written by AI by end of 2025?

Jan 8, 10:22 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

17.08%chance

201296

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2110

550

Will Gmail be the most popular email software 10 years from now?

Feb 23, 3:52 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

80.82%chance

24961

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1564

803

If we implement email sign in, will 3-month average signups increase by >=10% than the prior 3 month average?

Nov 16, 9:52 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

27.82%chance

8787

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1611

621

Will a digital address (like an email address) be legally required for US citizens by 2080?

Jun 12, 4:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.22%chance

3172

OptionVotes

NO

YES

208

19

Will Emad Mostaque (founder of Stability AI) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

Jun 8, 2:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.09%chance

4117

OptionVotes

YES

NO

162

57

Will "OpenAI Email Archives (from Musk v. Altman)" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Nov 16, 1:44 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

16.72%chance

326

OptionVotes

NO

YES

103

84

Will a digital address (like an email address) be legally required for US citizens by 2050?

Jun 12, 4:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.22%chance

325

OptionVotes

YES

NO

101

81

Will a later version of GPT be able to access email data into the model by 2027?

Mar 11, 6:26 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

46%chance

324

OptionVotes

YES

NO

92

88

Will Posteo email still be running in 2030

Apr 22, 2:18 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

58.1%chance

220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

159

124

Does David Sinclair get more emails in his email inbox than Matt Kaeberlein integrated from 2023 to 2035?

Sep 29, 4:15 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.98%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

80

62

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