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Embargo News

    Prediction markets for Embargo

    OptionProbability

    President with Green Eyes elected

    Crewed mission to Phobos

    USA adds 52nd state

    Room temperature superconductor discovered

    UK has a queen again

    24th Doctor Who regenerates into the 25th

    Olympics hosted in Japan again

    RSA-2048 cracked

    ChatGPT 10 releases

    Harlem Globetrotters lose again

    2000 Pokemon Released or franchise ceases

    Batman enters the public domain

    The Beatles music enters the public domain

    Hershey's reintroduces the Gold bar

    Norway Bans Whaling

    African company or country lands on moon

    Tom Scott's This Video Has X Views hits 1B

    human dies on the moon

    Japan Bans Whaling

    Tom Scott's This Video Has X Views hits 500M

    Pokemon Card sells for $10M

    First hispanic USA president

    Olympics hosted in Africa

    Longest suspension bridge record broken

    Pickleball in the Olympics

    Team Fortress 3 releases

    Country claims the Bir Tawil triangle

    End support date for Windows 12

    Grand Theft Auto 7 releases

    USA fully ends embargo on Cuba

    The next 9.0 magnitude earthquake

    The first $10T market cap company

    USA Adds 51st state

    Superman enters the public domain

    Iceland Bans Whaling

    Human walks on mars

    The version after Windows 12 releases

    Centennial Lightbulb burns out

    Underwater hold breath world record broken

    China invades Taiwan or resolves conflict

    Destiny retires from regular streaming

    First asian USA president (as judged by self ID & manifold opinion after inauguration)

    Bugs Bunny enters public domain

    Windows 11 end support date

    Grimace Shake returns to McDonalds

    Sitting USA president visits Belize for the first time

    Peppa Pig ends

    EU reaches 30 member states

    19th Doctor Who regenerates into 20th

    Bitcoin reaches $200K USD

    Taika Waititi's Star Wars film releases

    India hosts the Olympics

    Blood Meridian movie release

    1500 Pokemon Released

    Star Citizen releases or company ceases

    Family Guy ends

    Civilization 8 releases

    Kingdom Hearts 4 releases

    First female USA president

    Two grand slams in one MLB game by one player again

    South Park ends

    Manifold reaches 20K MAU

    ChatGPT 7 releases

    Chicago ends on Broadway

    Simpsons ends

    Xi no longer in power in China

    James Cameron's Avatar 4 releases

    Another MLB perfect game pitched

    Burj Khalifa record for tallest building broken

    1300 Pokemon Released

    Trump Dies

    Human walks on moon again

    Book of Mormon ends on Broadway

    Uber OR Lyft bankrupt / acquired / ceases

    Manifold reaches 40K MAU

    USA's Doris Miller aircraft carrier launched

    Half Life 3 releases

    a USA president impeached again

    One piece manga ends

    Skibidi Toilet ends

    Bitcoin reaches $150K USD

    Another Five Nights at Freddy's movie comes out

    Putin no longer in power in Russia

    Russia / Ukraine conflict ceasefire

    Shrek 5 releases

    Sagrada Familia Church completed

    Grand Theft Auto 6 releases

    Twitter gets a new CEO after Linda Yaccarino (or ceases operations)

    ChatGPT 6 releases

    First Trillionaire (USD)

    marijuana no longer federally a schedule 1 drug in the USA

    Human runs official marathon under 2h

    Price of gold hits $5000/oz

    The first $5T market cap company

    USA discontinues or changes penny coin

    Death Stranding 2 releases

    First $100B revenue media franchise

    New Pope after Francis

    Civilization 7 releases

    Bitcoin reaches $100K USD

    Mario 64 120star speedrun WR 1h36m00s or less

    Dallas Mavericks play in the NBA championship

    Sweden joins NATO

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    OptionProbability

    "designate cartels as Foreign Terrorist Organizations"

    empower the President to impose reciprocal tariffs

    "lower taxes"

    "defend your Second Amendment right to keep and bear arms"

    "increase penalties for assaults on law enforcement"

    "open Civil Rights investigations into any school district that has engaged in race-based discrimination"

    "order the Department of Defense to inflict maximum damage on cartel leadership and operations"

    "end catch-and-release, restore Remain in Mexico, and eliminate asylum fraud"

    "ask Congress to ensure that drug smugglers and traffickers can receive the Death Penalty"

    "reward states and school districts that abolish teacher tenure for grades K-12 and adopt Merit Pay"

    "REVOKE China’s Most Favored Nation trade status"

    "stop all COVID mandates"

    "keep men out of women’s sports"

    "deputize the National Guard and local law enforcement to assist with rapidly removing illegal alien gang members and criminals"

    "more jobs for American workers"

    "deliver a merit-based immigration system that protects American labor and promotes American values"

    "choke off [cartels'] access to the global financial system"

    "get Biden’s radical left ideology out of our military and rehire every patriot who was unjustly fired"

    "cut federal funding for any school or program pushing Critical Race Theory or gender ideology on our children"

    "strengthen qualified immunity and other protections for police officers"

    "uphold your religious liberty, including the Constitutional right to pray in public schools"

    "implement a 4-year national reshoring plan so that the United States no longer needs to rely on China for essential medical and national security goods"

    "put violent offenders and career criminals behind bars"

    "build a state-of-the-art next-generation missile defense shield"

    "surge federal prosecutors and the National Guard into high-crime communities"

    "adopt a Parental Bill of Rights"

    "banning taxpayer funds from being used to categorize lawful speech for purposes of illicit censorship"

    "banning federal agencies from censoring speech"

    "bigger paychecks"

    "a ban on members of Congress trading stocks with insider information"

    "enacting landmark legislation to drastically limit the ability of big social media platforms to restrict free speech"

    "cut the number of school administrators"

    "stopping federal funding for all non-profits and academic programs engaged in censorship"

    declassify the 'Epstein files'

    "pass a bold range of critical election integrity measures that include banning unsecure drop boxes and ballot harvesting"

    "deliver record funding to hire and retrain police officers"

    "veto the sinister effort to weaponize civics education"

    "increase fairness through price transparency"

    "passing a digital bill of rights"

    "get the full cooperation of neighboring governments to dismantle the cartels, or else expose every bribe and kickback that allows these criminal networks to preserve their brutal reign"

    "continue to nominate highly qualified prosecutors, judges, and justices who believe in enforcing the law, not their own political agenda"

    "create a credentialing body to certify teachers who embrace patriotic values"

    "protect Medicare, Social Security, and patients with pre-existing conditions"

    "reduce the soaring price of gasoline, diesel and natural gas"

    "firing any federal bureaucrat who has engaged in censoring the lawful speech of American citizens"

    "ban private money from pouring into local election offices"

    "end surprise medical billing"

    "ban Chinese ownership of all critical infrastructure in the United States"

    "reform our election laws to verify the identity and eligibility of all voters"

    "reduce the cost of prescription drugs and health insurance premiums"

    "impose a total naval embargo on cartels"

    "a permanent ban on taxpayer funding of campaigns"

    "a lifetime ban on lobbying by former members of Congress and cabinet members"

    "implement the direct election of school principals by the parents"

    "a constitutional amendment to impose term limits on members of Congress"

    "keep America out of unnecessary foreign wars"

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    0

    Will the next US president lift the embargo on Cuba?

    Jan 15, 1:41 AMNov 12, 4:59 AM
    22.34%chance
    281329

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1316

    867

    OptionProbability

    USA ends embargo on Cuba

    USA adds 51st state

    USA has another bachelor president

    76

    21

    3

    OptionProbability

    Conditional on the next US president being a Democrat, will they lift the embargo on Cuba?

    Conditional on the next US president being a Republican, will they lift the embargo on Cuba?

    34

    17

    Will Trump attack Cuba by the end of his term?

    Mar 17, 2:03 AMJan 20, 11:59 PM
    80.55%chance
    13361

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    204

    49

    Will the USA lift the embargo on Cuba by Jan 1st 2032?

    Dec 6, 6:15 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
    67.17%chance
    17340

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1109

    928

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    152

    143

    USA lifts Cuba embargo before Trump leaves office?

    Oct 5, 5:38 AMJan 19, 11:59 PM
    33.37%chance
    7111

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    141

    71

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