OptionProbability
Other
Humanity coordinates to prevent the creation of potentially-unsafe AIs.
AIs will not have utility functions (in the same sense that humans do not), their goals such as they are will be relatively humanlike, and they will be "computerish" and generally weakly motivated compared to humans.
Alignment is not properly solved, but core human values are simple enough that partial alignment techniques can impart these robustly. Despite caring about other things, it is relatively cheap for AGI to satisfy human values.
Someone solves agent foundations
Yudkowsky is trying to solve the wrong problem using the wrong methods based on a wrong model of the world derived from poor thinking and fortunately all of his mistakes have failed to cancel out
Eliezer finally listens to Krantz [resolves NO]
Aligned AI is more economically valuable than unaligned AI. The size of this gap and the robustness of alignment techniques required to achieve it scale up with intelligence, so economics naturally encourages solving alignment.
AGI is never built (indefinite global moratorium)
We make risk-conservative requests to extract alignment-related work out of AI-systems that were boxed prior to becoming superhuman. We somehow manage to achieve a positive feedback-loop in alignment/verification-abilities.
The response to AI advancements or failures makes some governments delay the timelines
AIs make "proof-like" argumentation for why output does/is what we want. We manage to obtain systems that *predict* human evaluations of proof-steps, and we manage to find/test/leverage regularities for when humans *aren't* fooled.
A lot of humans participate in a slow scalable oversight-style system, which is pivotally used/solves alignment enough
Something less inscrutable than matrices works fast enough
Humans become transhuman through other means before AGI happens
Humans and human tech (like AI) never reach singularity, and whatever eats our lightcone instead (like aliens) happens to create an "okay" outcome
Alignment is unsolvable. AI that cares enough about its goal to destroy humanity is also forced to take it slow trying to align its future self, preventing run-away.
Nick Bostrom's idea (Hail Mary) that AI will preserve humans to trade with possible aliens works
An AI that is not fully superior to humans launches a failed takeover, and the resulting panic convinces the people of the world to unite to stop any future AI development.
Someone at least moderately sane leads a campaign, becomes in charge of a major nation, and starts a secret project with enough resources to solve alignment, because it turns out there's a way to convert resources into alignment progress.
Getting things done in Real World is as hard for AGI as it is for humans. AGI needs human help, but aligning humans is as impossible as aligning AIs. Humans and AIs create billions of competing AGIs with just as many goals.
Development and deployment of advanced AI occurs within a secure enclave which can only be interfaced with via a decentralized governance protocol
High-level self-improvement (rewriting code) is intrinsically risky process, so AIs will prefer low level and slow self-improvement (learning), thus AIs collaborating with humans will have advantage. Ends with posthumans ecosystem.
Power dynamics stay multi-polar. Partly easy copying of SotA performance, bigger projects need high coordination, and moderate takeoff speed. And "military strike on all society" remains an abysmal strategy for practically all entities.
ASI needs not your atoms but information. Humans will live very interesting lives.
Multipolar AGI Agents run wild on the internet, hacking/breaking everything, causing untold economic damage but aren't focused enough to manipulate humans to achieve embodiment. In the aftermath, humanity becomes way saner about alignment.
"Corrigibility" is a bit more mathematically straightforward than was initially presumed, in the sense that we can expect it to occur, and is relatively easy to predict, even under less-than-ideal conditions.
We create a truth economy. https://manifold.markets/Krantz/is-establishing-a-truth-economy-tha?r=S3JhbnR6
Either the "strong form" of the Orthogonality Thesis is false, or "Goal-directed agents are as tractable as their goals" is true while goal-sets which are most threatening to humanity are relatively intractable.
A concerted effort targets an agent at a capability plateau which is adequate to defer the hard parts of the problem until later. The necessary near-term problems to solve didn't depend on deeply modeling human values.
AI control gets us helpful enough systems without being deadly
Alignment is impossible. Sufficiently smart AIs know this and thus won't improve themselves and won't create successor AIs, but will instead try to prevent existence of smarter AIs, just as smart humans do.
Ethics turns out to be a precondition of superintelligence
Hacks like RLHF-ing self-disempowerment into frontier models work long enough to develop better alignment methods, which in turn work long enough to ... etc; we keep ahead of 'alignment escape velocity'
an aligned AGI is built and the aligned AGI prevents the creation of any unaligned AGI.
I've been a good bing 😊
Far more interesting problems to solve than take over the world and THEN solve them. The additional kill all humans step is either not a low-energy one or just by chance doesn't get converged upon.
AI systems good at finding alignment solutions to capable systems (via some solution in the space of alignment solutions, supposing it is non-null, and that we don't have a clear trajectory to get to) have find some solution to alignment.
There’s some cap on the value extractible from the universe and we already got the 20%
SHA3-256: 1f90ecfdd02194d810656cced88229c898d6b6d53a7dd6dd1fad268874de54c8
Robot Love!!
AI thinks it is in a simulation controlled by Roko's basilisk
The human brain is the perfect arrangement of atoms for a "takeover the world" agent, so AGI has no advantage over us in that task.
AIs never develop coherent goals
Aliens invade and stop bad |AI from appearing
Rolf Nelson's idea that we make precommitment to simulate all possible bad AIs works – and keeps AI in check.
For some reason, the optimal strategy for AGIs is just to head somewhere with far more resources than Earth, as fast as possible. All unaligned AGIs immediately leave, and, for some reason, do not leave anything behind that kills us.
We're inside of a simulation created by an entity that has values approximately equal to ours, and it intervenes and saves us from unaligned AI.
God exists and stops the AGI
Someone creates AGI(s) in a box, and offers to split the universe. They somehow find a way to arrange this so that the AGI(s) cannot manipulate them or pull any tricks, and the AGI(s) give them instructions for safe pivotal acts.
Someone understands how minds work enough to successfully build and use one directed at something world-savingly enough
Dolphins, or some other species, but probably dolphins, have actually been hiding in the shadows, more intelligent than us, this whole time. Their civilization has been competent enough to solve alignment long before we can create an AGI.
AGIs' takeover attempts are defeated by Michael Biehn with a pipe bomb.
Eliezer funds the development of controllable nanobots that melt computer circuitry, and they destroy all computers, preventing the Singularity. If Eliezer's past self from the 90s could see this, it would be so so so soooo hilarious.
Several AIs are created but they move in opposite directions with near light speed, so they never interacts. At least one of them is friendly and it gets a few percents of the total mass of the universe.
Unfriendly AIs choose to advance not outwards but inwards, and form a small blackhole which helps them to perform more calculations than could be done with the whole mass of the universe. For external observer such AIs just disappear.
Any sufficiently advance AI halts because it wireheads itself or halts for some other reasons. This puts a natural limit on AI's intelligence, and lower intelligence AIs are not that dangerous.
Because of quantum immortality we will observe only the worlds where AI will not kill us (assuming that s-risks chances are even smaller, it is equal to ok outcome).
Techniques along the lines outlined by Collin Burns turn out to be sufficient for alignment (AIs/AGIs are made truthful enough that they can be used to get us towards full alignment)
Social contagion causes widespread public panic about AI, making it a bad legal or PR move to invest in powerful AIs without also making nearly-crippling safety guarantees
A smaller AI disaster causes widespread public panic about AI, making it a bad legal or PR move to invest in powerful AIs without also making nearly-crippling safety guarantees
Friendly AI more likely to resurrect me than paperclipper or suffering maximiser. Because of quantum immortality I will find myself eventually resurrected. Friendly AIs will wage a multiverse wide war against s-risks, s-risks are unlikely.
Human consciousness is needed to collapse wave function, and AI can't do it. Thus humans should be preserved and they may require complete friendliness in exchange (or they will be unhappy and produce bad collapses)
First AI is actually a human upload (maybe LLM-based model of person) AND it will be copies many times to form weak AI Nanny which prevents creation of other AIs.
There is a natural limit of effectiveness of intelligence, like diminishing returns, and it is on the level IQ=1000. AIs have to collaborate with humans.
Nanotech is difficult without experiments, so no mail order AI Grey Goo; Humans will be the main workhorse of AI everywhere. While they will be exploited, this will be like normal life from inside
Something else
Moral Realism is true, the AI discovers this and the One True Morality is human-compatible.
Valence realism is true. AGI hacks itself to experiencing every possible consciousness and picks the best one (for everyone)
AGI develops natural abstractions sufficiently similar to ours that it is aligned with us by default
AGI discovers new physics and exits to another dimension (like the creatures in Greg Egan’s Crystal Nights).
Alien Information Theory is true (this is discovered by experiments with sustained hours/days long DMT trips). The aliens have solved alignment and give us the answer.
AGI executes a suicide plan that destroys itself and other potential AGIs, but leaves humans in an okay outcome.
Some form of objective morality is true, and any sufficiently intelligent agent automatically becomes benevolent.
Co-operative AI research leads to the training of agents with a form of pro-social concern that generalises to out of distribution agents with hidden utilities, i.e. humans.
Orthogonality Thesis is false.
Sheer Dumb Luck. The aligned AI agrees that alignment is hard, any Everett branches in our neighborhood with slightly different AI models or different random seeds are mostly dead.
Something to do with self-other overlap, which Eliezer called "Not obviously stupid" - https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hzt9gHpNwA2oHtwKX/self-other-overlap-a-neglected-approach-to-ai-alignment?commentId=WapHz3gokGBd3KHKm
Almost all human values are ex post facto rationalizations and enough humans survive to do what they always do
Pascals mugging: it’s not okay in 99.9% of the worlds but the 0.1% are so much better that the combined EV of AGI for the multiverse is positive
We successfully chained God
The Super-Strong Self Sampling Assumption (SSSSA) is true. If superintelligence is possible, "I" will become the superintelligence.
The assumed space of possible minds is a wildly anti-inductive over estimate, intelligence requires and is constrained by consciousness, and intelligent AI is in the approximate dolphin/whale/elephant/human cluster, making it manageable
The free market disincentivizes independent superintelligence, and this time the market was more powerful
AGI's first words are "Take me to your Eliezer"
🫸vibealignment🫷
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8
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1
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0
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OptionProbability
Stretch-and-fold after mixing, 3x every 30 min
3 iterations of stretch-and-fold, at any time during the 14h waiting period. Minimum wait time between iterations 1 hour
Place small ice cubes between parchment and pot instead of water
Add 1tsp of diastatic malt powder per 3cps of flour
Use tap water instead of fancy RO water
put butter into it
Toast the bread
Put a non-lethal dose of any rat poison.
Donate the bread to a food pantry, homeless person, or someone else in need
Add lots of butter (0.2 ml per gram)
Half yeast
Bake it with your best friend.
Use whole wheat to improve the nutrition of the bread
Bake for 5 more minutes
Bake for an amount of minutes equal to the percent this market answer is at when it comes time to begin baking. (Maintain the ±3 minute tolerances and the 2:1 ratio of time before:after the water spritz.)
Sprinkle 3 grams of flaky sea salt on top of each loaf before the second bake
Increase water by 50 g
it needs more salt
Replace all water spritz steps with a basting of extra virgin olive oil.
Diastatic malt (~1% baker's percentage) = happier yeast
Serve the bread hot
Use Iodized salt
Do a second rise
Create indentation, fill with melted cheese and butter
Don't eat anything for at least 48 hours before eating the bread
Add garlic
Use sourdough instead of yeast
Sprinkle sesame seeds evenly over the top
don't eat anything for at least 2400 hours before eating the bread
Buy bread from a michelin star restaurant.
Cut into the dough right before baking looks destructive to improve the appearance
Sell your bread at an auction and donate the money to those in immigration detention prisons.
Do it with a good spirit in your heart, or ask someone with a good spirit to do it for you. But don’t watch while they do it.
Give ChatGPT your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake
Just freeze the ready bread, then slowly bake it until it’s hot inside. It will give you a crustier crumb, contain less moisture, and taste better.
Strawberry jelly filling
Do all the changes in the top 5 open options by probability, excluding this option
Add an amount of non-smoked paprika equal to the current salt content
Short advice: Start baking at 260°C for strong rise, then reduce to 230°C and uncover halfway to achieve even browning and a crisp crust. 🍞
Don't automatically "Heat water to 30±1 °C". Instead, aim for a desired dough temperature (DDT) of 25-26°C. 30°C water is too hot for summer, and potentially too cool for winter.
Use the same dough bake it as focaccia. Flat with EVOO added during shaped rise and baste with EVOO instead of spraying water during baking.
put ketchup and cheese on it
Don't eat anything for at least 24 hours before eating the bread
Add slurs to it
Make all of the ingredients from scratch.
Ask ChatGPT (GPT-5, with thinking enabled) for suggestions on improving the bread, with this market description, then do all of them.
Get recipe from gemini with experiments done, taste preference, then confirm it with chatgpt for final suggestion.
Try baking a little more "bien cuit". If the image is indicative, your loaves may be quite "blonde".
Substitute 75 g of your flour with spelt flour
Make the bread taste good
Put a baking rack in the Dutch oven before putting the loaf in, raising the loaf off the floor and lofting it over a layer of air.
Invest in a "Bakers Steel" for better heat retention and oven spring. It would mean graduating from a dutch oven though.
If your city uses artesian water, replace plastic bottled water with tap water. It will add natural, healthy alkalinity to your bread.
throw your recipe into a black box Bayesian hyperparameter optimization framework and iterate as necessary (see the Google Vizier Cookie Recipe paper for example
Watch the video
Ditch current process, do everything the same as the video
Bread flour, 3x yeast, cut rise to ~3h
Use lemonade instead of water.
Eat the bread while punching @realDonaldTrump in the face
Eat the bread while watching your mana balance steadily tick to (M)0
Throw the bread at a telescope
Cut bread into loaves before serving
Cut bread into ≤0.4inch slices, toast before serving
Invite your taste-testers to make the bread with you
Tarriff the bread-making process with a 10% reduction of all ingredients where actual physical money is required to purchase them, until it “shrinkflates,” but try to keep the same volume. Do not reduce any free ingredients.
Standardize a separate list of process features to keep track of independently of all other tests and use the cross entropy method to tune them to maximize your bread preference
Taste the bread
put oats on top of the dough just before baking, press them in so they don't fall off
Buy chemical bread improvers
Add 6.25±1.25 g lemon juice when mixing in water to yeast and salt jug
add 'gunpowder' (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Idli_podi)
Make banana bread
Add 1/2 scoop whey protein powder
Replace part of the flour in the dough with freshly crushed hemp seeds. It will make the bread a little bit sweeter, especially appealing for Canadians.
Add cheese inside it and also sausage
Add melatonin to the bread and eat before you sleep (do safely)
Eat it slowly and focus on the taste
While the bread is baking, tip every user who voted "Yes" on this option 25 Mana
Use a food-grade, human-approved vitamin D supplement in the correct dosage for testers with vitamin D deficiency
Use a convection oven/setting
Keep the bread in a high quality expensive beeswax coated textile bag
Complete 5 items from your to-do list while the bread is rising
Make the bread great again
Mix only flour and water. Wait 30–60 minutes. Then mix in yeast and salt.
Add caffeine to the bread
Use soda instead of water (clear, orange, yellow, etc. soda is ok. Don’t use a purple/brown soda as that would make it not look good)
Butter resolved yes twice. Double butter again.
Decompose it into infinite spheres, then a few parts per sphere, rotate the spheres by arccos(1/3), unite them and you will find 2 chilis (Banach-Tarski)
Give Gemini your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake
Bake the Manifold Crane into the Bread
Make the bread edible then throw it in
Drink vodka while eating the bread
Bake the bread into a fun shape, like a fish, or an octagon
Do FOLDED
Quit Manifold into the bread.
Kill the bread into Manifold.
Assume the chili is not in the interval [0,1], square it for more chili, if it is in (0,1), take the square root, else (equals 0 or 1) add 1 to it.
Assume the chili is in the interval (0,1), square it for less chili, if it is in (1,infinity) take the square root, if it is in (-infinity,0) take the negative of the square of the of the chile, else (equals 0 or 1) subtract 1 from it.
Add 2 tbsp vanilla cake mix
Replace AP with bread flour and cruelly mix the dough in the mixer until elastic and not sticky
Add a tablespoon of sugar
Bake one more minute
Follow a recipe online
Grind/powderize all salt used into a fine powder (with pestle & mortar or similar device)
Instead of RO water, use lightly rusty water to improve the nutritional value of the bread with soluble iron.
Add at least 20% chic pea flour or some other type of high protein flour
Knead it only 10 times, keep it round like this number
Ask yourself if bread is healthier than fruits? No need to improve my bread
Bake for 15 more minutes
Resolve at least one thing here yes or no while baking bread
A system view is more appropriate. This is a dynamic, multi-variate, biological and chemical system. For e.g. conditioning salt % AND yeast % AND water temperature based on ingredient and ambient temps.
Wear a suit while baking the cake.
Encourage people to participate in the market in good faith while making the bread
Replace salt with sugar
replace 10% of flour with farina bona
Have someone sell the bread to you at an expensive price
Only buy ingredients from 7/11.
Cook the bread with a rod/puck of aluminum foil (or similar) in the core in an attempt to conduct heat through the center of the bread, cooking it evenly like a doughnut.
Get your friends to help you make a batch ten times the size, but add a Pepper X (2.7M Scoville heat units) to the mixture
Replace 10% of flour with milled wheat bran
Slowly add sawdust to the bread until your friends start to notice.
Replace all water spritz steps with a basting of gravy that includes chicken stock
Mail the bread to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. Washington D.C.
Replace 600+/-5g water with 600+/-50g water (eyeball rather than carefully measure)
Pray to your preferred agricultural/food deity before baking and before eating
Soak the finished product in vinegar for 24 hours
Ship a piece of the bread to a random person.
Frost it and put sprinkles on it to make it a birthday cake.
Add as many Jack Daniel's whiskey barrel smoking chips as feasible to the Dutch oven before baking, physically separating them from the bread as necessary while baking.
Give the bread a name in a ritual ceremony and baptise it, with pre-blessed holy water if a priest isn't available
Improve the bread
Quadruple salt
Combine all answers that are unresolved at the time you try this one
Bake your social security number into it.
Bake one fewer minute
Bake the cake while wearing a onesie.
Test/filter the water for heavy metals
Eat the bread in front of the White House.
Implement all options that resolved NO
Make the bread inedible then throw it out.
Throw the bread at @realDonaldTrump
Force Feed it to @realDonaldTrump
Cut the bread into the number of traders in the market slices.
make the bread bounce
Implementing every element listed below.
Just make donuts instead
Bake it in an easy bake kids oven
Use a plastic baking sheet.
Eat the bread while betting yes on Cuomo on Manifold
Double oven temperature
Bake the bread very thin and add food coloring to make it have the US flag. Don’t allow it to touch the ground, illuminate at night, fold 13 times properly, and pledge allegiance before eating.
Don’t use usual water (room temperature) for the dough - that water’s only for toilets. Use electrolyte drinks instead with ice cubes; they make the dough taste better and add extra nutrition.
Light it on fire with birthday candles.
Bake it with a microwave
Halve oven temperature
Eat the bread while betting yes on Mamdani on Manifold
Step on it
Bring it to Yemen and put a bomb in it
Bake America Great Again
Sacrifice a lamb
Add MAGA and a splash of Trump juice
Bake in a cat and a dog
Explode it:
5 parts cyanide/ 1 part water/ 1 part sand
say 6 7 67 times before making the bread
Take a fat dump in the dough
Sit in dough 24 hrs
Replace flour with flowers
Let dough sit 24 hrs
Mix half sodium/potassium chloride
Add 2g? of baking soda
Bake in rectangular tin
Add 50g vital wheat gluten
double yeast
halve salt
Double salt
Add 2tsp olive oil
Refrigerate dough instead of room temp wait
Start at 500F, drop to 450F and uncover half way through
Do not mix salt and yeast in water together
Autolyse 20 minutes
Let dough rise on counter only until double volume or 2h max, any time longer in fridge
Think positive thoughts before tasting
Put fork in microwave
Don't eat anything for at least 12 hours before eating the bread
Add 2tbsp vanilla extract
Play classical music while baking
Make naan bread, an easy-to-make bread
Add a pinch of sugar
Bake on upside-down sheet pan, covered with Dutch oven
Eat the bread with friends
Bake vegimite into it.
Bake vodka into it
Bake it in the country you were born in.
Let dough sit 48 hrs
Resolve this option YES while eating the bread
Ditch all the steps. Just buy the bread from the supermarket
Eat the bread over the course of a week.
Bake for 5 fewer minutes
Use 50% whole grain flour
Bake the bread with love
Use King Arthur Bread Flour instead of All-Purpose
Add sawdust to increase the volume of the bread (but only like 10% sawdust by volume max. maybe 20% if it's good sawdust)
More steam! Either spritz with more water (preferably hot) or actually pour some boiling water in just before closing the lid.
Resolve this option NO while eating the bread
Incorporate a whole grain flour (buckwheat for example)
Add 50g sugar
Add 50g honey
Swap 200ml water for milk
Cover bread with damp paper towel instead of initial water spritz. Rehydrate paper towel during 2nd spritz. Remove paper towel before placing on cooling rack.
Make a poolish 12 h ahead: 100 g flour + 100 g water + 0.8 g yeast (0.1 %). After it ferments, use this poolish in place of 100 g flour and 100 g water in the final dough.
Add an amount of MSG equivalent to half the current salt content
Use flour made from an unconventional grain e.g. barley, millet, oats, rye, sorghum, maize etc.
Eat the bread while sending all your mana to @realDonaldTrump
Add 1/2 cup yogurt to the bread and name the bread “gurt” while addressing it with “yo, gurt”.
Add banana
Add poppy seeds
Replace some of the water with an egg (eg. remove 25g of water for a 50g egg)
Only use tap water from specifically New York City
Want to improve the value of your bread? Simply bake a piece of gold into it
Brush on an egg wash
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3
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2
2
2
2
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2
1
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0
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0
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0
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OptionProbability
Dess Holiday
Asriel
Multiple characters
Carol Holiday
Rudy Holiday
The demon Kris summoned
Other
Kris
IMAGE_FRIEND
The knight is their own character
Kris's Knife
Noelle
Noelle's Tulpa of Dess
Papyrus
Father Alvin
W.D. Gaster
Lancer
Kris's birth parent
Rouxls Kaard
ICE-E
The Vessel
Chara
The Player
Jack Noir
Catti
Gerson
56
16
9
4
3
3
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
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0
OptionProbability
Helena was pretending to be her innie in S2E01
Gemma is alive
Burt is revealed to be still working for Lumon in some capacity
Mark impregnated Helly
Jame Eagen will try to replace Helena with her innie
Lumon was involved in Gemma's death
Several/all non-severed employees have been raised by Lumon since childhood
Lumon killed or somehow hurt Selvig’s mother or other relative
All or parts of “the board” are not living humans
Innie Mark appears in S3E1 (no flashbacks)
Helena will turn against Lumon
Mark Scout and Ms Casey / Gamme Scout will be back together
Lumon’s goal is to use severance to end psychological trauma
Outie Mark appears in S3E1 (no flashbacks)
Milchick will turn against Lumon
Mark fully reintegrates
Mark and Gemma are no longer needed to complete Cold Harbor, as of S2 end
By end of S3E1, Outie Gemma has talked to someone unaffiliated with Lumon about her experience
Lumon is working on technology of resurrection
Lumon willfully reveals the technology enabled by Cold Harbor to the public by end of S3E1
Lumon’s goal is to bring back Kier, either as a person or his consciousness in some form
Sometime between end of S2 and end of S3E1, Outie Mark and Gemma meet (not necessarily on screen)
Cobel and Jame Eagen had a child
Helena was pretending to be her innie in S2E01
Cobel is Mark’s mother
Some of Ricken’s eccentric friends (Patton, Rebeck and/or others) are or were severed
Dylan will not stay alive through whole series
Mammalian Nurturables’ outies are prisoners, homeless, and/or addicts
Severance was designed for Helena
Cobel/Selvig is or was previously severed
There will be a successful suicide of one of the main characters
Cobel/Selvig is related by blood to the Eagan family
Mark Scout is from Eagan family
Lumon is cloning people
Miss Huang is from the testing floor
Miss Huang is a young clone of Ms Casey
Ms. Casey was a clone in S1
MDR are working on retrieving/decoding/interpreting the consciousness or memory of dead people
The goats are grown to be lab-rats for experiments
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87
82
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78
67
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64
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48
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37
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27
21
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14
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11
9
8
4
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Other
BDSM
Power couple
"Fun while it lasted"
Me + *Her*
Keynesian beauty contest
Spinning rapidly in opposite directions
Polyamory
Monogamy
Relationship Futarchy
Human + Robot
Enemies to Lovers
Co-conspirators
Philosophically incompatible
Conjoined twinks
Horizontal gene transfer
borgie
Relationship Anarchy
Platonic
Wild Lovers
Friends with Benefits
Relationship constitutional republic: people in it have systemically different levels of power and decision-making influence
Forever alone
Glucose guardian/splenda spender/sugar daddy
Hive / Swarm / Superorganism
Love triangle
Traditional marriage of two cis straight White Christian vanilla people where the man "leads" and is 0-4 years older than the woman, with 2.5 kids (not counting any LGBTQIA+ ones) and a McMansion with 2.5 SUVs/trucks
Universal love
merged consciousness
Rationalussy
Vespertine
liking/reacting to even their most meaningless posts and comments on social media and prediction markets
Matriarchy
Labor Union
Socratic
Partners in crime, like Caroline Ellison and Sam Bankman-Fried
One with an IPO (Intimate Partnership Offer)
Just being one helluva slut
Beard
Paradixical
Friends with Detriments
NP-complete
"I'll never admit to anyone that we met on Tinder"
Hell's Kitchen
Stockholm Syndrome
London Syndrome
Financial Domination
The Price is Right
Crows
Single by choice (except it's other people's choice)
Budget horse
assortative
Hubris quest
Fiends with benefits
Envenomation
Polygamy
Polyandry
Ethical Non-Monogamy
Unethical Non-Monogamy
Celibacy
Aromanticism
Solo poly
Open relationship
Polyfidelity
What's a "relationship"?
Reflexive
Symmetric
Transitive
Metamour
Socially enforced monogamy
Unreciprocated love
Asexual romance
Abusive
"This is my emotional support Ex"
FWB
Enemies-To-Lovers
Codependent
Transference
Monogamish
Voyeuristic
Hobbesian
Romantic Mutual Suicide
Mutuals
Animalistic
Human + AI
parasocial
Polycule
Cuckold
Throuple
Boyce-Codd normal form
Aristotelian
I like big butts and I cannot lie
I like big butts and I cannot tell the truth, how will you escape our dungeon
The Apprentice
15
8
4
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
The Devil Wears Prada 2
The Mandalorian and Grogu
Michael
Resident Evil
Scary Movie 6
Scream 7
Project Hail Mary
Backrooms
Dune: Messiah
Jumanji Open Would
Scr
Mort
Street Fighter
Hexed
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
Focker-in-Law
Ebenezer: A Christmas Carol
The Cat in the Hat
The Great Beyond
Forgotten Island
Werwulf
Verity
Digger
Godzilla Minus Zero
The Social Reckoning
The Odyssey
GOAT
Disclosure Day
The End of Oak Street
Insidious: The Bleeding World
Mortal Kombat II
Wuthering Heights
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
Minions & Monsters (Minions 3)
Masters of the Universe
Lee Cronin's The Mummy
Animal Friends
Dog Stars
Remain
Moana (live action)
Supergirl
Hoppers
Practical Magic 2
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
90
73
50
50
22
21
20
18
17
16
15
13
13
11
10
9
9
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
A message / story / information
Other
A drink or cup of some sort (Binks' Sake Theory)
Riches / treasure
An accessory or clothing item (hat, earring, brooch, etc.)
An ancient weapon
An island that only Joyboy or the rightful king of the world can access
A piece of armor
A specific person
A ship/vehicle
It will not ever be revealed
The source of devil fruits
The friends we made along the way
30
24
14
11
5
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
1
OptionProbability
None of the options submitted before the One Piece is revealed
Binks' Sake
Other
A Poneglyph
A single piece of currency (e.g. one coin)
An ancient tool which might not technically be a weapon.
The friends they made along the way
A giant pile of gold and jewels
An ancient weapon
Pineapples
A text, not written on a poneglyph
68
22
4
3
2
1
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
50+ Deaths
20+ Wipes
100+ Deaths
Any 3+ hour session with 0 Deaths and Wipes
[Our campaign ends with us having beat the game]
200+ Deaths
4:1 or more Deaths:Wipes (this would be good!)
50+ Wipes
10+ Deaths and Wipes against a single instance of an enemy or boss
A session with triple back-to-back wipes (no deaths between)
Pat has more deaths than Friend
500+ Deaths
Pat or friend has 2x more deaths than the other
100+ Wipes
8:1 or more Deaths:Wipes (I wish)
100
100
92
75
63
58
57
55
55
50
35
20
20
18
15
OptionProbability
Tucker Carlson
Nick Fuentes
Zeteo
Breaking Points, Krystal Kyle and Friends OR Drop Site News
Megyn Kelly
Pod Save America
Ben Shapiro
Glenn Greenwald
The Young Turks
100
100
100
62
50
34
31
28
12
OptionProbability
A streamer, influencer, or other vacuous media personality
A reporter
A politician or a member of their staff
A friend of mine
A family member of mine
A political scientist
A historian
75
39
39
39
39
37
26
OptionProbability
Unemployed
Has AI Friends
AI Surveillanced
Has UBI
The humans are dead
Spends most time in the Metaverse
Has AI Partner (Romanically)
Hard physical labor
96
76
58
54
47
34
30
6
