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Prediction markets for Emerge Canada

[Metaculus] Before 2032, will a vaccine against HIV-1 be approved by the USA, UK, EU, or Canada?

Oct 12, 10:22 PMJan 2, 10:00 AM

76.25%chance

8323

OptionVotes

NO

YES

204

92

When AI girlfriends will become socially acceptable to at least one age group?

Dec 16, 5:17 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

12316

OptionProbability

Later than 2037, if ever

Other

2026, 2027

2028, 2029

2024, 2025

33

30

14

14

10

Which Money & Macro megatrends for 2026 will be correct?

Dec 25, 1:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11292

OptionProbability

China will dominate the global economy.

The AI bubble will NOT pop.

The trade war will broaden.

More and more governments will hit a debt limit.

China will blockade Taiwan.

72

63

59

44

5

Will the 2025-26 US flu season be classified as "high severity" by the CDC?

Dec 11, 10:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.03%chance

5100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

108

92

Epstein-Barr virus vaccine by 2032?

Oct 26, 7:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.12%chance

376

OptionVotes

NO

YES

104

96

Will a G7 data authority fine a major AI agent provider over $100M for autonomous agent privacy violations

Feb 3, 12:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.71%chance

170

OptionVotes

YES

NO

170

59

Will the Canada-India uranium supply agreement size exceed 3.0 billion USD on April 1, 2027?

Mar 2, 6:15 PMApr 1, 6:14 PM

30.77%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

150

67

Will the Canada-India uranium supply agreement size exceed 2.5 billion USD on April 1, 2027?

Mar 2, 6:15 PMApr 1, 6:14 PM

33.78%chance

140

OptionVotes

YES

NO

140

71

What will happen to the Marineland Beluga whales?

Oct 14, 1:41 PMOct 15, 1:29 PM

215

OptionProbability

Euthanized

Moved to a sanctuary

Introduced to the wild

Sold/given to a park

38

26

18

18

Will the Canada-India uranium supply agreement size exceed 2.0 billion USD on April 1, 2027?

Mar 2, 6:14 PMApr 1, 6:14 PM

45.25%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

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