Emergence Capital News

1. Anthropic will go public. OpenAI will not.

Dec 28, 11:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.56%chance

265578

OptionVotes

YES

1545

648

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.44%chance

213540

OptionVotes

YES

1033

971

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

16.43%chance

233162

OptionVotes

YES

1875

705

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

YES

1928

630

xAI sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Sep 28, 5:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.77%chance

92124

OptionVotes

YES

2878

348

Will Fukuyama's "End of History" thesis still be plausible by 2035?

Oct 2, 1:15 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

37.83%chance

10525

OptionVotes

YES

1282

780

Yemen fragmented into 2 or more internationally recognized countries by EOY 2028?

Jan 6, 7:42 AMJan 1, 6:29 PM

677

OptionProbability

Partial - De facto separation exists but no formal international recognition by EOY 2028

No - Yemen is unified under single internationally recognized government by EOY 2028

Yes - Multiple independent states emerge (South Arabia, Houthi state, others) by EOY 2028

[IMF] Insured Mana Fund

Apr 25, 11:50 AM

Emergence Capital News

Prediction markets for Emergence Capital

Prediction markets for Emergence Capital

Prediction markets for Emergence Capital

1. Anthropic will go public. OpenAI will not.

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

xAI sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Will Fukuyama's "End of History" thesis still be plausible by 2035?

Yemen fragmented into 2 or more internationally recognized countries by EOY 2028?

[IMF] Insured Mana Fund

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