Emergence Capital News

1. Anthropic will go public. OpenAI will not.

Dec 28, 11:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

76.06%chance

5716388

OptionVotes

YES

1784

561

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35%chance

325852

OptionVotes

YES

1365

735

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

15.88%chance

233212

OptionVotes

YES

1925

695

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79.08%chance

382747

OptionVotes

YES

1720

680

Will Trump annex/take military action against Brazil by EOY 2028?

Jun 16, 3:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.6%chance

111162

OptionVotes

YES

1905

525

Will Fukuyama's "End of History" thesis still be plausible by 2035?

Oct 2, 1:15 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

37.83%chance

10525

OptionVotes

YES

1282

780

Yemen fragmented into 2 or more internationally recognized countries by EOY 2028?

Jan 6, 7:42 AMJan 1, 6:29 PM

7151

OptionProbability

Partial - De facto separation exists but no formal international recognition by EOY 2028

No - Yemen is unified under single internationally recognized government by EOY 2028

Yes - Multiple independent states emerge (South Arabia, Houthi state, others) by EOY 2028

Will an "AGI insider" class accept the political disempowerment of everyone else?

Aug 8, 9:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62.65%chance

450

OptionVotes

YES

130

(AGI before 2050) x (FTSE Global All Cap Index Real Return)

Feb 7, 10:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

120

OptionProbability

(NO) x (-10% to <20%)

(YES) x (-10% to <20%)

(YES) x (<-10%)

(YES) x (>=20%)

(NO) x (<-10%)

(NO) x (>=20%)

The Business Benefits of Mobile Entertainment Attractions

Aug 5, 10:18 AMDec 31, 10:17 AM

50%chance

OptionVotes

YES

100

[IMF] Insured Mana Fund

Apr 25, 11:50 AM

Emergence Capital News

Prediction markets for Emergence Capital

Prediction markets for Emergence Capital

Prediction markets for Emergence Capital

1. Anthropic will go public. OpenAI will not.

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Will Trump annex/take military action against Brazil by EOY 2028?

Will Fukuyama's "End of History" thesis still be plausible by 2035?

Yemen fragmented into 2 or more internationally recognized countries by EOY 2028?

Will an "AGI insider" class accept the political disempowerment of everyone else?

(AGI before 2050) x (FTSE Global All Cap Index Real Return)

The Business Benefits of Mobile Entertainment Attractions

[IMF] Insured Mana Fund

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