Emergent Labs News

YES

China launches military drills around Taiwan

Warnings from Western intelligence agencies about Chinese invasion preparations

China engages in a partial/total naval blockade of Taiwan

Submarine cables around Taiwan are damaged

A western think-tank warns about a Chinese naval build-up

Major cyberattack on Taiwanese infrastructure

Reports about the discovery of a Chinese spy in Taiwan's military

At least one western country charters a fight to evacuate its citizens from Taiwan

China shoots down a Taiwanese aircraft

At least one western country tells its citizens to leave China

A Chinese entity releases a frontier AI model

Taiwan revokes visa of pro-Beijing influencer

Taiwan shoots down a Chinese aircraft

China issues new warning to its citizens about travelling to the US

China fires missiles/rockets/artillery/railguns over Taiwan

China declares a no-fly zone over Taiwan

China switches its industrial overcapacity over to military production

A military ship sinks in the Pacific in suspicious circumstances (or due to clear evidence of hostile action)

Reports that China is building new concentration camps

A popular Chinese movie is released containing a scene with an amphibious assault

Chinese government tells large numbers of its citizens to return to China

Chinese soldiers are involved in active combat outside of Chinese territory (excluding UN peacekeeping)

A US company has a market cap of at least 5 trillion dollars at any point in the 12-month window

Significant damage to low-earth orbit satellites (compared to per-satellite damage level in 2024) -- including but not limited to hostile action and kessler syndrome

Reports of drone activity over US military bases in the Pacific

Major cyberattack on Japanese infrastructure

A Taiwanese politician dies in suspicious circumstances

Major cyberattack on South Korean infrastructure

Reports about the discovery of a Chinese spy in the US military

Reports about the discovery of a Chinese spy in Japan's military

Reports about the discovery of a Chinese spy in South Korea's military

the US implements tariffs of at least 25% on Taiwanese semiconductors (implemented at any point in the 12-month window)

A US semiconductor facility is damaged in a fire/explosion or act of sabotage

At least three civilian flights to Taiwan are diverted to land in China

Significant constitutional crisis in the US

Nasdaq is at 60% of its previous peak at any time in the 12-month period

Reports about the discovery of a Chinese spy in Australia's military

Reports about the discovery of a Chinese spy in India's military

A civilian ship sinks in the Pacific in suspicious circumstances (or due to clear evidence of hostile action)

The US implements significant travel restrictions on Chinese citizens (compared to 2024)

Reports of a major corruption scandal involving a Taiwanese/US/Japanese/South-Korean semiconductor company

Oil prices are at >=100 dollars a barrel at any time in the 12-month window

Reports that a large scale cyberattack has physically damaged AI chips in the West

Credible reports in Western news media about activity relating to biolabs in North Korea

1 million humanoid robots have been manufactured

50k soldiers from NATO countries are stationed in Ukraine

A popular Western podcaster/youtuber is prevented from leaving a country by China/Russia

the US implements tariffs of at least 50% on most imports from China

A US movie with a budget of at least 30 million dollars is released containing a US vs China war scene

The US bombs Iran

Major cyberattack on Western frontier AI lab

Major Earthquake in/near Japan > 7 Richter

Attack on a US military asset in the Pacific

A Taiwanese semiconductor manufacturing facility is damaged in a fire/explosion or act of sabotage

An apocalypse cult attacks a civilian or military target in Taiwan

A human walks on the Moon

At least three prominent Taiwanese AI researchers disappear

Reports that the US has used a sixth-generation fighter in combat operations

Reports that China has used a sixth-generation fighter in combat operations

The US reduces sanctions on Russia

Ukraine loses the Donbass region in a ceasefire/peace deal with Russia

The US attempts to expand its territory by force

Reports of suspicious electromagnetic phenomena in the upper atmosphere

Elon Musk is pardoned

China arrests / takes hostage at least 100 westerners (non-taiwanese) on spurious grounds

The US attempts to expand its territory by economic coercion

Attempted coup in Taiwan

the US implements tariffs of at least 75% on most imports from China

Donald Trump is replaced as the US's leader

The US withdraws from NATO

100k soldiers from NATO countries are stationed in Ukraine

Vladimir Putin is replaced as Russia's leader

The US military performs combat operations in Mexico

A NATO soldier on active duty is killed by Russia

Russia attacks a NATO member (excluding attacks on submarine cables)

AGI is achieved by a non-Chinese entity

North Korea detonates a nuclear weapon

AGI is achieved by a Chinese entity

Xi Jinping is replaced as China's leader

India detonates a nuclear weapon

Russia cedes territory to China

Vladivostok is not under Russia's control

Ukraine signs a deal with the US giving it access to its minerals

Zelensky is replaced as the leader of Ukraine

Reports in western media about a Taiwanese businessperson falling out of the window of a tall building

Taiwanese political leader dies in small plane accident (w/out being attacked by kinetic or other physical weapon)

Chinese soldiers present in Europe in official combat roles (including peacekeeping)

An AI datacenter is hit by a significant EMP blast

China executes at least 5 citizens of western countries

A major pandemic occurs

Attempted coup in Russia

Attempted coup in the Phillipines

The US military performs combat operations on Palestinian territory

The US detonates a nuclear weapon

The US attacks a NATO member

Tulsi Gabbard is arrested on treason charges

A nuclear weapon is detonated

Attempted coup in China

Japan takes control of the Kuril Islands

Successful revolution in Iran

Russia detonates a nuclear weapon

Elon Musk is arrested on treason charges

Attempted coup in the US

Strong evidence supporting the covid lab-leak theory emerges

China detonates a nuclear weapon

South Korea detonates a nuclear weapon

Japan detonates a nuclear weapon

Australia detonates a nuclear weapon

YES

YES

Before 2040

Before 2038

Before 2036

Before 2034

Before 2032

Before 2030

Before 2028

NO

YES

YES

YES

NO

Before 2050

Before 2040

YES