Emerging Market News

Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?

Sep 1, 3:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

26%chance

22164711353

OptionVotes

YES

19317

4472

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

9.81%chance

834517320

OptionVotes

YES

58416

10485

What will be the official cause(s) of the Air India Flight 171 crash?

Jun 13, 6:55 AMJun 30, 6:43 AM

17280548

OptionProbability

Pilot Action: Pilot action was a primary cause of the crash.

Design/Manufacturing Defect: A Boeing design or manufacturing defect was a primary cause of the crash.

Maintenance/Fueling Lapse: An Air India maintenance or fueling lapse was a primary cause of the crash.

Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?

Jun 16, 6:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.08%chance

2011534

OptionVotes

YES

18258

5477

Will Trump refuse to carry out or obey any Supreme Court decisions?

Mar 7, 12:05 PMJan 20, 11:59 PM

69.56%chance

406214

OptionVotes

YES

3162

2308

Who is Satoshi Nakamoto? (resolves at 90% confidence)

Apr 9, 8:18 PMDec 31, 9:24 PM

255760

OptionProbability

Other

Adam Back

Hal Finney

Len Sassaman

Nick Szabo

Peter Todd

Dorian Nakamoto

Craig Wright

Will OMIE Spain 2028 annual average wholesale price exceed €65/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

40.01%chance

53433

OptionVotes

YES

12045

8363

EU ends unanimous decision-making by EOY 2035?

Jul 14, 12:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.17%chance

112322

OptionVotes

YES

1724

580

Will the Giro d'Italia's calendar position change before 2030?

Oct 18, 7:45 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

24.84%chance

71280

OptionVotes

YES

3612

2144

Will the OMIE Spain annual average wholesale electricity price for calendar year 2027 exceed 60 EUR per MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

50.35%chance

31051

OptionVotes

YES

11051

8806

What is the next speculative bubble to happen no longer than December 2029?

Jul 29, 9:45 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

131015

OptionProbability

Other bubble

NO BUBBLE

Virtual reality/artificial reality

Crypto

Green commodities (copper, lithium, nickel...)

Space exploration

U.S. Real Estate

Other G7 Real Estate

Nuclear energy

India

Mexico

China

Ukraine

Russia

Superconductors

Biotech

Weight-loss drugs

Self-driving cars

EVs and batteries

United States

Japan

Europe

South America

Southeast Asia

Oil and fossil fuels

Carbon capture

Emerging market Real Estate

Defense

Everything bubble

Which ETF will go up the most?

Apr 17, 7:36 AMApr 30, 1:59 PM

16949

OptionProbability

MGC: Vanguard Mega Cap ETF (CRSP US Mega Cap Index)

VWO: Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (FTSE Emerging Markets All Cap China A Inclusion Index)

VOO: Vanguard S&P 500 ETF

VONE: Vanguard Russell 1000 ETF

VFMF: Vanguard U.S. Multifactor ETF

VEA: Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF (FTSE Developed All Cap ex US Index)

VT: Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (FTSE Global All Cap Index)

Emerging Market News

Prediction markets for Emerging Market

Prediction markets for Emerging Market

Prediction markets for Emerging Market

Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

What will be the official cause(s) of the Air India Flight 171 crash?

Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?

Will Trump refuse to carry out or obey any Supreme Court decisions?

Who is Satoshi Nakamoto? (resolves at 90% confidence)

Will OMIE Spain 2028 annual average wholesale price exceed €65/MWh?

EU ends unanimous decision-making by EOY 2035?

Will the Giro d'Italia's calendar position change before 2030?

Will the OMIE Spain annual average wholesale electricity price for calendar year 2027 exceed 60 EUR per MWh?

What is the next speculative bubble to happen no longer than December 2029?

Which ETF will go up the most?

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