Emerging Market News

Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?

Sep 1, 3:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

26.03%chance

21704600019

OptionVotes

YES

19307

4475

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

10.09%chance

827508712

OptionVotes

YES

57325

10606

What will be the official cause(s) of the Air India Flight 171 crash?

Jun 13, 6:55 AMJun 30, 6:43 AM

17074531

OptionProbability

Pilot Action: Pilot action was a primary cause of the crash.

Design/Manufacturing Defect: A Boeing design or manufacturing defect was a primary cause of the crash.

Maintenance/Fueling Lapse: An Air India maintenance or fueling lapse was a primary cause of the crash.

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Mar 7, 1:33 AMMar 14, 1:28 AM

19543871

OptionProbability

YES - The AI, without being prompted to, took actions to breach its sandbox, including to gain crypto and an external connection

NO - The authors are wrong/lying and there was no such hack

NO - The servers were hacked by an outside party, perhaps via prompt injection

NO - An employee (or other insider) was crypto-mining and made it look like the LLM

Did the Russians deliberately blow up the Nova Kakhovka dam? (Resolves NO if it was negligence rather than sabotage)

Jun 6, 8:56 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

63.91%chance

12137769

OptionVotes

YES

2274

1931

Will Trump refuse to carry out or obey any Supreme Court decisions?

Mar 7, 12:05 PMJan 20, 11:59 PM

74.49%chance

395640

OptionVotes

YES

3686

2105

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.58%chance

233790

OptionVotes

YES

1073

935

Will we learn by 2027 that Maduro’s ouster was an internal coup with US assistance?

Jan 4, 11:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.04%chance

263356

OptionVotes

YES

2717

1188

EU ends unanimous decision-making by EOY 2035?

Jul 14, 12:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.17%chance

112322

OptionVotes

YES

1724

580

Will the Giro d'Italia's calendar position change before 2030?

Oct 18, 7:45 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

24.84%chance

71280

OptionVotes

YES

3612

2144

What is the next speculative bubble to happen no longer than December 2029?

Jul 29, 9:45 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

131015

OptionProbability

Other bubble

NO BUBBLE

Virtual reality/artificial reality

Crypto

Green commodities (copper, lithium, nickel...)

Space exploration

U.S. Real Estate

Other G7 Real Estate

Nuclear energy

India

Mexico

China

Ukraine

Russia

Superconductors

Biotech

Weight-loss drugs

Self-driving cars

EVs and batteries

United States

Japan

Europe

South America

Southeast Asia

Oil and fossil fuels

Carbon capture

Emerging market Real Estate

Defense

Everything bubble

Which ETF will go up the most?

Apr 17, 7:36 AMApr 30, 1:59 PM

16949

OptionProbability

MGC: Vanguard Mega Cap ETF (CRSP US Mega Cap Index)

VWO: Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (FTSE Emerging Markets All Cap China A Inclusion Index)

VOO: Vanguard S&P 500 ETF

VONE: Vanguard Russell 1000 ETF

VFMF: Vanguard U.S. Multifactor ETF

VEA: Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF (FTSE Developed All Cap ex US Index)

VT: Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (FTSE Global All Cap Index)

Emerging Market News

Prediction markets for Emerging Market

Prediction markets for Emerging Market

Prediction markets for Emerging Market

Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

What will be the official cause(s) of the Air India Flight 171 crash?

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Did the Russians deliberately blow up the Nova Kakhovka dam? (Resolves NO if it was negligence rather than sabotage)

Will Trump refuse to carry out or obey any Supreme Court decisions?

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Will we learn by 2027 that Maduro’s ouster was an internal coup with US assistance?

EU ends unanimous decision-making by EOY 2035?

Will the Giro d'Italia's calendar position change before 2030?

What is the next speculative bubble to happen no longer than December 2029?

Which ETF will go up the most?

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