Emerging Markets News

Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?

Sep 1, 3:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

26.54%chance

21454582204

OptionVotes

YES

19104

4548

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

9.91%chance

811504802

OptionVotes

YES

58014

10529

What will be the official cause(s) of the Air India Flight 171 crash?

Jun 13, 6:55 AMJun 30, 6:43 AM

17074531

OptionProbability

Pilot Action: Pilot action was a primary cause of the crash.

Design/Manufacturing Defect: A Boeing design or manufacturing defect was a primary cause of the crash.

Maintenance/Fueling Lapse: An Air India maintenance or fueling lapse was a primary cause of the crash.

Will Trump refuse to carry out or obey any Supreme Court decisions?

Mar 7, 12:05 PMJan 20, 11:59 PM

72.3%chance

395390

OptionVotes

YES

3436

2195

Emergency UCI cycling doping multi-market (14 February 2026 deadline)

Jan 14, 11:33 PMFeb 15, 5:59 AM

83918

OptionProbability

No such announcements by 14 February 2026* (see description)

Oier Lazkano is involved

Giovanni Carboni is involved

There will be an announcement involving a rider who has won a WT race

Gleb Syritsa is involved

Juan Ayuso is involved

Simon Yates is involved

Chris Froome is involved

Lance Armstrong is involved

Pauline Ferrand-Prévot is involved

Jonas Vingegaard is involved

Mathieu van der Poel is involved

Will the US Government conduct military operations against 8 or more countries in 2026?

Jan 3, 7:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.24%chance

243861

OptionVotes

YES

1089

919

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.44%chance

213540

OptionVotes

YES

1033

971

Will we learn by 2027 that Maduro’s ouster was an internal coup with US assistance?

Jan 4, 11:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.23%chance

253337

OptionVotes

YES

2587

968

EU ends unanimous decision-making by EOY 2035?

Jul 14, 12:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.17%chance

112322

OptionVotes

YES

1724

580

Will the Giro d'Italia's calendar position change before 2030?

Oct 18, 7:45 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

24.84%chance

71280

OptionVotes

YES

3612

2144

Which ETF will go up the most?

Apr 17, 7:36 AMApr 30, 1:59 PM

16949

OptionProbability

MGC: Vanguard Mega Cap ETF (CRSP US Mega Cap Index)

VWO: Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (FTSE Emerging Markets All Cap China A Inclusion Index)

VOO: Vanguard S&P 500 ETF

VONE: Vanguard Russell 1000 ETF

VFMF: Vanguard U.S. Multifactor ETF

VEA: Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF (FTSE Developed All Cap ex US Index)

VT: Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (FTSE Global All Cap Index)

What is the next speculative bubble to happen no longer than December 2029?

Jul 29, 9:45 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

13948

OptionProbability

Other bubble

NO BUBBLE

Virtual reality/artificial reality

Crypto

U.S. Real Estate

Green commodities (copper, lithium, nickel...)

Oil and fossil fuels

Space exploration

Other G7 Real Estate

Nuclear energy

India

Mexico

China

Ukraine

Russia

Superconductors

Biotech

Weight-loss drugs

Self-driving cars

EVs and batteries

United States

Japan

Europe

South America

Southeast Asia

Carbon capture

Emerging market Real Estate

Defense

Everything bubble

Emerging Markets News

Prediction markets for Emerging Markets

Prediction markets for Emerging Markets

Prediction markets for Emerging Markets

Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

What will be the official cause(s) of the Air India Flight 171 crash?

Will Trump refuse to carry out or obey any Supreme Court decisions?

Emergency UCI cycling doping multi-market (14 February 2026 deadline)

Will the US Government conduct military operations against 8 or more countries in 2026?

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Will we learn by 2027 that Maduro’s ouster was an internal coup with US assistance?

EU ends unanimous decision-making by EOY 2035?

Will the Giro d'Italia's calendar position change before 2030?

Which ETF will go up the most?

What is the next speculative bubble to happen no longer than December 2029?

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