Emerging Markets News

Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?

Sep 1, 3:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

26.85%chance

22594846018

OptionVotes

YES

18983

4592

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

5.21%chance

858583544

OptionVotes

YES

89425

8110

What will be the official cause(s) of the Air India Flight 171 crash?

Jun 13, 6:55 AMJun 30, 6:43 AM

17984332

OptionProbability

Pilot Action: Pilot action was a primary cause of the crash.

Design/Manufacturing Defect: A Boeing design or manufacturing defect was a primary cause of the crash.

Maintenance/Fueling Lapse: An Air India maintenance or fueling lapse was a primary cause of the crash.

Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?

Jun 16, 6:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.7%chance

3134762

OptionVotes

YES

25099

3984

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

May 18, 11:08 AMJul 31, 11:59 PM

2920304

OptionProbability

J.D. Vance

Other

Marco Rubio

Ron DeSantis

Glenn Youngkin

Tucker Carlson

Donald Trump Jr.

Will Trump refuse to carry out or obey any Supreme Court decisions?

Mar 7, 12:05 PMJan 20, 11:59 PM

69.56%chance

406214

OptionVotes

YES

3162

2308

Will OMIE Spain 2028 annual average wholesale price exceed €65/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

40.01%chance

53433

OptionVotes

YES

12045

8363

EU ends unanimous decision-making by EOY 2035?

Jul 14, 12:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.06%chance

122452

OptionVotes

YES

1729

578

Will the OMIE Spain annual average wholesale electricity price for calendar year 2027 exceed 60 EUR per MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

55.17%chance

52059

OptionVotes

YES

10149

9814

What is the next speculative bubble to happen no longer than December 2029?

Jul 29, 9:45 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

131015

OptionProbability

Other bubble

NO BUBBLE

Virtual reality/artificial reality

Crypto

Green commodities (copper, lithium, nickel...)

Space exploration

U.S. Real Estate

Other G7 Real Estate

Nuclear energy

India

Mexico

China

Ukraine

Russia

Superconductors

Biotech

Weight-loss drugs

Self-driving cars

EVs and batteries

United States

Japan

Europe

South America

Southeast Asia

Oil and fossil fuels

Carbon capture

Emerging market Real Estate

Defense

Everything bubble

Which ETF will go up the most?

Apr 17, 7:36 AMApr 30, 1:59 PM

16949

OptionProbability

MGC: Vanguard Mega Cap ETF (CRSP US Mega Cap Index)

VWO: Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (FTSE Emerging Markets All Cap China A Inclusion Index)

VOO: Vanguard S&P 500 ETF

VONE: Vanguard Russell 1000 ETF

VFMF: Vanguard U.S. Multifactor ETF

VEA: Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF (FTSE Developed All Cap ex US Index)

VT: Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (FTSE Global All Cap Index)

Will all comic con events go on in 2027?

Nov 3, 8:39 AMDec 31, 11:00 AM

OptionProbability

Yes, all scheduled Comic-Con events worldwide will proceed without cancellation in 2027

No, at least one major Comic-Con event will be canceled or postponed in 2027

No, all Comic-Con events will be cancelled or postponed in 2027

Emerging Markets News

Prediction markets for Emerging Markets

Prediction markets for Emerging Markets

Prediction markets for Emerging Markets

Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

What will be the official cause(s) of the Air India Flight 171 crash?

Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Will Trump refuse to carry out or obey any Supreme Court decisions?

Will OMIE Spain 2028 annual average wholesale price exceed €65/MWh?

EU ends unanimous decision-making by EOY 2035?

Will the OMIE Spain annual average wholesale electricity price for calendar year 2027 exceed 60 EUR per MWh?

What is the next speculative bubble to happen no longer than December 2029?

Which ETF will go up the most?

Will all comic con events go on in 2027?

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