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Prediction markets for Empire

Will any car drive itself from the Empire State Building to the Golden Gate Bridge before April 2028?

Mar 14, 10:02 PMApr 1, 7:00 AM

30.83%chance

351372

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1342

622

Will Roman Empire produce more than 10% of world GDP in 2100?

Mar 27, 10:05 PMJan 1, 6:59 PM

7.25%chance

30685

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1110

967

Will Manifold partner with the Roman Empire by EOY 4000?

Feb 9, 1:55 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

14.69%chance

20657

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1378

874

Will there be an expert-player-beating AI (eg in a x-of-5 match beats Viper/Daut/Hera) in Age of Empires II (AoE2) by 2025?

Oct 4, 2:38 AMOct 11, 3:59 AM

29.26%chance

16492

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1145

922

Will the Roman Empire make a comeback until EOY 4000?

Feb 9, 12:55 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

31.51%chance

18356

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1062

958

Will "SAE reconstruction errors are (empirically) p..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Aug 8, 6:40 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11%chance

2270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1267

962

Great Hwan Empire or Proto-Finnic Holy Roman Khaganate reformation attempt?

Jul 8, 3:45 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

43.14%chance

3164

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1148

871

What will happen the Fox News Empire when Rupert Murdoch dies?

Jul 20, 12:31 AMJul 21, 12:26 AM

9119

OptionProbability

Empire dissolved through sales

Lachlan Murdoch takes control

Continues in current political direction

Fox News shifts political orientation

80

69

68

36

Will I finish reading Hugh Elton's Roman Empire in Late Antiquity by the end of the year?

Apr 29, 3:29 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

56.88%chance

490

OptionVotes

NO

YES

115

87

DGG/Destiny Orbiter Empire Stability Stock (Permanent)

Nov 12, 4:12 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

552

OptionProbability

NO

YES

163

137

Would Jose Luis Ricon win a 1v1 game of Sins of a Solar Empire with TaToH?

Jul 1, 8:32 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

45.25%chance

15

OptionVotes

YES

NO

75

65

If Henry (@arithmoquine) 1v1'd Geffen Avraham on Offworld Trading Company OR Sins of a Solar Empire 2, would he win?

Jul 4, 7:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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